Bayes in the sky: Bayesian inference and model selection in cosmology

Abstract

The application of Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics has flourished over the past decade, spurred by data sets of increasing size and complexity. In many respects, Bayesian methods have proven to be vastly superior to more traditional statistical tools, offering the advantage of higher efficiency and of a consistent conceptual basis for dealing with the problem of induction in the presence of uncertainty. This trend is likely to continue in the future, when the way we collect, manipulate and analyse observations and compare them with theoretical models will assume an even more central role in cosmology. This review is an introduction to Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics and recent results in the field. I first present Bayesian probability theory and its conceptual underpinnings, Bayes' Theorem and the role of priors. I discuss the problem of parameter inference and its general solution, along with numerical techniques such as Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. I then review the theory and application of Bayesian model comparison, discussing the notions of Bayesian evidence and effective model complexity, and how to compute and interpret those quantities. Recent developments in cosmological parameter extraction and Bayesian cosmological model building are summarized, highlighting the challenges that lie ahead.

Invited review to appear in Contemporary Physics. 41 pages, 6 figures. Expanded references wrt published version

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• Global fit of pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Dark Matter
• Inflationary Potential as seen from Different Angles: Model Compatibility from Multiple CMB Missions
• ExoReL${}^{\Re }$: A Bayesian Inverse Retrieval Framework For Exoplanetary Reflected Light Spectra
• The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs, Wolf 1069 b: Earth-mass planet in the habitable zone of a nearby, very low-mass star
• Lorentz Invariance Violation Limits from the Spectral Lag Transition of GRB~190114C
• BEBOP III. Observations and an independent mass measurement of Kepler-16 (AB) b -- the first circumbinary planet detected with radial velocities
• A non-parametric method for measuring the local dark matter density
• Median statistics estimates of Hubble and Newton's Constant
• The VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey (VIPERS): Reconstruction of the redshift-space galaxy density field
• Dark energy reconstruction based on the PADE approximation; an expansion around the $\Lambda$CDM
• How Much Information Does the Sodium Doublet Encode? Retrieval Analysis of Non-LTE Sodium Lines at Low and High Spectral Resolutions
• A joint ALMA-Bolocam-Planck SZ study of the pressure distribution in RX J1347.5-1145
• Constraining Curvatonic Reheating
• Interacting Dark Sectors in light of DESI DR2
• Exoplanet Characterization using Conditional Invertible Neural Networks
• ACCESS: A Visual to Near-infrared Spectrum of the Hot Jupiter WASP-43b with Evidence of ${\mathrm{H}}_2\mathrm{O}$, but no evidence of Na or K
• Bayesian data analysis tools for atomic physics
• Exploring the Hubble tension with a late time Modified Gravity scenario
• Bayesian evidence for $\alpha$-attractor dark energy models
• Bayesian quantification of strongly-interacting matter with color glass condensate initial conditions
• Prospects for dark matter detection with IceCube in the context of the CMSSM
• Dark energy by natural evolution: Constraining dark energy using Approximate Bayesian Computation
• Bayesian noise wave calibration for 21-cm global experiments
• Bayesian Analysis of Molecular Emission and Dust Continuum of Protoplanetary Disks
• The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs. A long-period planet around GJ 1151 measured with CARMENES and HARPS-N data
• TOI-1468: A system of two transiting planets, a super-Earth and a mini-Neptune, on opposite sides of the radius valley
• HST/STIS transmission spectrum of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76 b confirms the presence of sodium in its atmosphere
• Thermal Friction as a Solution to the Hubble and Large-Scale Structure Tensions
• Effects of type Ia supernovae absolute magnitude priors on the Hubble constant value
• Indications for very high metallicity and absence of methane for the eccentric exo-Saturn WASP-117b
• Bayesian estimation of our local motion from the Planck-2018 CMB temperature map
• Early-times Yang-Mills dynamics and the characterization of strongly interacting matter with statistical learning
• Improving PSF modelling for weak gravitational lensing using new methods in model selection
• Statistical tests of sterile neutrinos using cosmology and short-baseline data
• Dust mineralogy and variability of the inner PDS 70 disk
• The Average Optical Spectra of Intense Starbursts at z~2: Outflows and the Pressurization of the ISM
• First measurement of ${\sigma }_8$ using supernova magnitudes only
• Gamma-ray emission from the impulsive phase of the 2017 September 06 X9.3 flare
• Vertical structure of an exoplanet's atmospheric jet stream
• Cosmological constraints on Galileon dark energy with broken shift symmetry
• Cosmology-marginalized approaches in Bayesian model comparison: the neutrino mass as a case study
• Hunting the stochastic gravitational wave background in pulsar timing array cross correlations through theoretical uncertainty
• Sub-m s${}^{-1}$ upper limits from a deep HARPS-N radial-velocity search for planets orbiting HD 166620 and HD 144579
• The Detectability and Constraints of Biosignature Gases in the Near & Mid-Infrared from Transit Transmission Spectroscopy
• What can(not) be measured with ton-scale dark matter direct detection experiments
• ${\Lambda }_{\mathrm{s}}$CDM cosmology: Alleviating major cosmological tensions by predicting standard neutrino properties
• A new measure of tension between experiments
• Complementarity of Indirect and Accelerator Dark Matter Searches
• Hot Exoplanet Atmospheres Resolved with Transit Spectroscopy (HEARTS) VII. Detection of sodium on the long-transiting inflated sub-Saturn KELT-11 b
• Natural NMSSM confronting with the LHC7-8
• Cosmology with Photometric Surveys of Type Ia Supernovae
• Cosmological constraints on early dark energy from the full shape analysis of eBOSS DR16
• Efficient emulation of relativistic heavy ion collisions with transfer learning
• Fast Bayesian inference for slow-roll inflation
• Dark matter profiles of SPARC galaxies: a challenge to fuzzy dark matter
• Analysis of a subsolar-mass compact binary candidate from the second observing run of Advanced LIGO
• A transiting, temperate mini-Neptune orbiting the M dwarf TOI-1759 unveiled by TESS
• Constraints on scalar and tensor perturbations in phenomenological and two-field inflation models: Bayesian evidences for primordial isocurvature and tensor modes
• Improving sampling and calibration of GRBs as distance indicators
• Magnetic activity evolution of solar-like stars: I. S_ph-Age relation derived from Kepler observations
• No Sub-Saturn Mass Planet Desert in the CORALIE/HARPS Radial Velocity Sample
• EFTofLSS meets simulation-based inference: ${\sigma }_8$ from biased tracers
• Naturalness of the relaxion mechanism
• ACCESS: Ground-based Optical Transmission Spectroscopy of the Hot Jupiter WASP-4b
• Bayesian Inference for Radio Observations
• The Issues of Mismodelling Gravitational-Wave Data for Parameter Estimation
• New late-time constraints on $f(R)$ gravity
• Super-CMB fluctuations and the Hubble tension
• Bayesian comparison of nonstandard cosmologies using type Ia supernovae and BAO data
• Kinetic Model for Dark Energy - Dark Matter Interaction: Scenario for the Hubble Tension
• Extensive search for bias in SNIa data
• Model selection for spectro-polarimetric inversions
• Orbital and spectral analysis of the benchmark brown dwarf HD 4747B
• Kernel Selection for Gaussian Process in Cosmology: with Approximate Bayesian Computation Rejection and Nested Sampling
• The 2-10 keV unabsorbed luminosity function of AGN from the XMM-Newton LSS, CDFS and COSMOS surveys
• Observational hints on the Big Bounce
• A Bayesian study of the primordial power spectrum from a novel closed universe model
• A Bayesian analysis of inflationary primordial spectrum models using Planck data
• Planetary system around LTT 1445A unveiled by ESPRESSO: Multiple planets in a triple M-dwarf system
• Comparing the scalar-field dark energy models with recent observations
• Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo
• Exploring non-cold dark matter in a scenario of dynamical dark energy with DESI DR2 data
• Bayesian Model Averaging in Astrophysics: A Review
• Discovery and mass measurement of the hot, transiting, Earth-sized planet GJ 3929 b
• New Test of Modulated Electron Capture Decay of Hydrogen-Like ${}^{142}$Pm Ions: Precision Measurement of Purely Exponential Decay
• Constraints on field flows of quintessence dark energy
• Fast and Automated Peak Bagging with DIAMONDS (FAMED)
• The Hubble PanCET Program: A Metal-rich Atmosphere for the Inflated Hot Jupiter HAT-P-41b
• Current constraints on deviations from General Relativity using binning in redshift and scale
• Investigating the detectability of hydrocarbons in exoplanet atmospheres with JWST
• BOWIE-ALIGN: JWST reveals hints of planetesimal accretion and complex sulphur chemistry in the atmosphere of the misaligned hot Jupiter WASP-15b
• Constraining holographic inflation with WMAP
• Sparsity and the Bayesian Perspective
• Effect of the exoplanet magnetic field topology on its magnetospheric radio emission
• Statistical coverage for supersymmetric parameter estimation: a case study with direct detection of dark matter
• Cosmological constraints on the Multi Scalar Field Dark Matter model
• Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories
• Should we doubt the cosmological constant?
• A non-parametric consistency test of the $\Lambda$CDM model with Planck CMB data
• 21cmfish: Fisher-matrix framework for fast parameter forecasts from the cosmic 21-cm signal
• On Model Selection in Cosmology
• Observational Constraints in Nonlocal Gravity: the Deser-Woodard Case
• Constraining holographic cosmology using Planck data
• Evidence for chromium hydride in the atmosphere of Hot Jupiter WASP-31b
• Gaussian processes for radial velocity modeling Better rotation periods and planetary parameters with the quasi-periodic kernel and constrained priors
• Bayesian analysis for rotational curves with $\ell$-boson stars as a dark matter component
• Revisit cosmic ray propagation by using ${}^1$H, ${}^2$H, ${}^3$He and ${}^4$He
• The SCUBA-2 850 $\mu m$ follow-up of WISE-selected, luminous dust-obscured quasars
• Bayesian Analysis of Multiple Harmonic Oscillations in the Solar Corona
• The Detection of Transiting Exoplanets by Gaia
• Cosmological discordances III: more on measure properties, Large-Scale-Structure constraints, the Hubble constant and Planck
• Bioverse: a simulation framework to assess the statistical power of future biosignature surveys
• Prior dependence of cosmological constraints on dark matter-radiation interactions
• TESS discovery of a sub-Neptune orbiting a mid-M dwarf TOI-2136
• Cosmological Inference from Galaxy-Clustering Power Spectrum: Gaussianization and Covariance Decomposition
• Extended $\Lambda$CDM model
• Testing the mapping between redshift and cosmic scale factor
• ACCESS: Confirmation of a Clear Atmosphere for WASP-96b and a Comparison of Light Curve Detrending Techniques
• Improving Fisher matrix forecasts for galaxy surveys: window function, bin cross-correlation, and bin redshift uncertainty
• Bayesian approach to SETI
• Analysing the SEDs of protoplanetary disks with machine learning
• Bayesian model comparison for simulation-based inference
• Insufficient evidence for DMS and DMDS in the atmosphere of K2-18 b. From a joint analysis of JWST NIRISS, NIRSpec, and MIRI observations
• Observational constraints on the oscillating dark energy cosmologies
• TOI-969: a late-K dwarf with a hot mini-Neptune in the desert and an eccentric cold Jupiter
• Radial Velocity Survey for Planets around Young stars (RVSPY) A transiting warm super-Jovian planet around HD 114082, a young star with a debris disk
• Effective neutrino masses in KATRIN and future tritium beta-decay experiments
• Backreaction and FRW consistency conditions
• Bayesim: a tool for adaptive grid model fitting with Bayesian inference
• Bayesian analysis of (3+1)D relativistic nuclear dynamics with the RHIC beam energy scan data
• A Link to the Past: Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Fitting to Constrain Fundamental Parameters of High-Redshift Galaxies
• Challenges in the detection of gases in exoplanet atmospheres
• Bayesian correction of $H(z)$ data uncertainties
• TOI-1268b: the youngest, hot, Saturn-mass transiting exoplanet
• Robust evidence for dynamical dark energy in light of DESI DR2 and joint ACT, SPT, and Planck data
• A Bayesian estimation of the helioseismic solar age
• Bayesian inference of T Tauri star properties using multi-wavelength survey photometry
• Perspectives of direct Detection of supersymmetric Dark Matter in the NMSSM
• Bayesian evidence for non-zero theta_13 and CP-violation in neutrino oscillations
• Cosmic sign-reversal: non-parametric reconstruction of interacting dark energy with DESI DR2
• A Mirage or an Oasis? Water Vapor in the Atmosphere of the Warm Neptune TOI-674 b
• Extended $\Lambda$CDM model and viscous dark energy: A Bayesian analysis
• Topology beyond the horizon: how far can it be probed?
• The SOPHIE search for northern extrasolar planets-XIX. A system including a cold sub-Neptune potentially transiting a V = 6.5 star HD88986
• Statistical tools for a better optical model
• Bayesian photometric redshifts of blended sources
• Evidence for TiO in the atmosphere of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-65 b
• ACCESS: Confirmation of no potassium in the atmosphere of WASP-31b
• Cloud Parameterizations and their Effect on Retrievals of Exoplanet Reflection Spectroscopy
• Dark Matter Searches: The Nightmare Scenario
• Astrophysical interpretation of the anisotropies in the unresolved gamma-ray background
• TOI-1842b: A Transiting Warm Saturn Undergoing Re-Inflation around an Evolving Subgiant
• Holographic and Gravity-Thermodynamic Approaches in Entropic Cosmology: Bayesian Assessment using late-time Data
• Cosmological parameter estimation: impact of CMB aberration
• When tension is just a fluctuation: How noisy data affect model comparison
• Evidence for Substructure in Ursa Minor Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy using a Bayesian Object Detection Method
• Model-independent cosmological inference after the DESI DR2 data with improved inverse distance ladder
• Probing the Neutrino Mass Hierarchy beyond $\Lambda$CDM Model
• Geminga SNR: Possible candidate of local cosmic-ray factory
• Anisotropic q-Gaussian velocity distributions in LambdaCDM halos
• Precise mass determination for the keystone sub-Neptune planet transiting the mid-type M dwarf G 9-40
• From model dynamics to oscillating dark energy parameterisation
• Systematic Multi-Epoch Monitoring of LkCa 15: Dynamic Dust Structures on Solar-System Scales
• Interacting dark energy after DESI DR2: a challenge for $\Lambda$CDM paradigm?
• Fresh view of the hot brown dwarf HD 984 B through high-resolution spectroscopy
• Robust inference of the Galactic centre gamma-ray excess spatial properties
• Extended Analysis of Neutrino-Dark Matter Interactions with Small-Scale CMB Experiments
• A novel model-marginalized cosmological bound on the QCD axion mass
• TOI-1075 b: A Dense, Massive, Ultra-Short Period Hot Super-Earth Straddling the Radius Gap
• Looking out for the Galileon in the nanohertz gravitational wave sky
• A simple parametrisation for coupled dark energy
• Combining high-z galaxy luminosity functions with Bayesian evidence
• The Size and Shape of the Milky Way Disk and Halo from M-type Brown Dwarfs in the BoRG Survey
• Denser Sampling of the Rosette Nebula with Faraday Rotation Measurements: Improved Estimates of Magnetic Fields in HII Regions
• Chasing a consistent picture for dark matter direct searches
• Evidence for dark matter modulation in CoGeNT?
• Resolving the blazar CGRaBS J0809+5341 in the presence of telescope systematics
• Testing averaged cosmology with type Ia supernovae and BAO data
• Bayesian Comparison of the Cosmic Duality Scenarios
• JWST Observations of the Enigmatic Y Dwarf WISE 1828+2650: I. Limits to a Binary Companion
• On new physics searches with multidimensional differential shapes
• Constraining Light Gravitino Mass from Cosmic Microwave Background
• A detailed statistical analysis of the mass profiles of galaxy clusters
• Dark matter and lepton flavour phenomenology in a singlet-doublet scotogenic model
• Impact of an eV-mass sterile neutrino on the neutrinoless double-beta decays: a Bayesian analysis
• Pulsational instability of pre-main-sequence models from accreting protostars II. Modelling echelle diagrams of $\delta$ Scuti stars without rotational splitting
• A preference for dynamical phantom dark energy using one-parameter model with Planck, DESI DR1 BAO and SN data
• The phenomenological MSSM in view of the 125 GeV Higgs data
• Can we really measure fnl from the galaxy power spectrum?
• Comparison of damping mechanisms for transverse waves in solar coronal loops
• Dwarf Novae in the Shortest Orbital Period Regime: II. WZ Sge Stars as the Missing Population near the Period Minimum
• Mean shift cluster recognition method implementation in the nested sampling algorithm
• Uncorrelated estimates of the primordial power spectrum
• Modelling the orientation of accretion disks in quasars using H-alpha emission
• DESI constraints on $\alpha$-attractor inflationary models
• Combining and comparing neutrinoless double beta decay experiments using different nuclei
• Identification of a turnover in the initial mass function of a young stellar cluster down to 0.5 M${}_J$
• TOI-1801 b: A temperate mini-Neptune around a young M0.5 dwarf
• What kind of science is cosmology?
• An empirical approach to model selection: weak lensing and intrinsic alignments
• Bayesian evidence of non-standard inflation: isocurvature perturbations and running spectral index
• Probing protoneutron stars with gamma-ray axionscopes
• Testing anisotropic Hubble expansion
• Bayesian methods for fitting Baryon Acoustic Oscillations in the Lyman-$\alpha$ forest
• On the origin of the dichotomy of stellar activity cycles
• Three Warm Jupiters around Solar-analog stars detected with TESS
• Is a Bose-Einstein Condensate a good candidate for Dark Matter? A test with Galaxy Rotation Curves
• Was there an early reionization component in our universe?
• Bayesian analysis of Juno/JIRAM's NIR observations of Europa
• Cosmological model-independent constraints on the baryon fraction in the IGM from fast radio bursts and supernovae data
• An efficient positive potential-density pair expansion for modelling galaxies
• A multi-planetary system orbiting the early-M dwarf TOI-1238
• Evidence for a polar circumbinary exoplanet orbiting a pair of eclipsing brown dwarfs
• Bayesian isochrone fitting and stellar ages
• Constraining the properties of transitional disks in Chamaeleon I with Herschel
• Inferring dark energy properties from the scale factor parametrisation
• A tutorial on the Bayesian statistical approach to inverse problems
• Joint Bayesian analysis of large angular scale CMB temperature anomalies
• Constraining power of open likelihoods, made prior-independent
• Tracing the formation and migration history: molecular signatures in the atmosphere of misaligned hot Jupiter WASP-94Ab using JWST NIRSpec/G395H
• Bayesian evidence and predictivity of the inflationary paradigm
• Bayesian evidence estimation from posterior samples with normalizing flows
• Fitting in a complex chi^2 landscape using an optimized hypersurface sampling
• Bayesian evidence of the post-Planck curvaton
• Looking for Traces of Non-minimally Coupled Dark Matter in the X-COP Galaxy Clusters Sample
• Joint Constraints on the Hubble Constant, Spatial Curvature, and Sound Horizon from the Late-time Universe with Cosmography
• How robust are the parameter constraints extending the $\Lambda$CDM model?
• Search for a gravitational wave background from primordial black hole binaries using data from the first three LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs
• Constraints on the Tensor-to-Scalar ratio for non-power-law models
• Improving parametric mass modelling of lensing clusters through a perturbative approach
• MIRI-LRS spectrum of a cold exoplanet around a white dwarf: water, ammonia, and methane measurements
• Measuring neutrino masses with joint JWST and DESI DR2 data
• Competing chemical signatures in the atmosphere of TOI-270 d: Inference of sulfur and carbon chemistry
• On The Distribution of Bayesian Evidences
• Possible Resolution of the Hubble Tension with Weyl Invariant Gravity
• The ultra narrow FRB20191107B, and the origins of FRB scattering
• RV-exoplanet eccentricities: Good, Beta, and Best
• Planetary companions orbiting the M dwarfs GJ 724 and GJ 3988. A CARMENES and IRD collaboration
• Is cosmological data suggesting a nonminimal coupling between matter and gravity?
• KiDS+VIKING-450: An internal-consistency test for cosmic shear tomography with a colour-based split of source galaxies
• GWDALI: A Fisher-matrix based software for gravitational wave parameter-estimation beyond Gaussian approximation
• Testing gravity with the Milky Way: Yukawa potential
• Do we need wavelets in the late Universe?
• An empirical model to form and evolve galaxies in dark matter halos
• Dynamical masses of two young transiting sub-Neptunes orbiting HD 63433
• Toward a multidimensional analysis of transmission spectroscopy. Part III: Modelling 2D effects in retrievals with TauREx
• Detection of Na and K in the atmosphere of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-1b with P200/DBSP
• Fast likelihood-free inference in the LSS Stage IV era
• Fractal Bubble Cosmology: A concordant cosmological model?
• Characterization of seven transiting systems including four warm Jupiters from SOPHIE and TESS
• The hot interstellar medium towards 4U 1820-30: a Bayesian analysis
• Revisiting the HD 21749 Planetary System with Stellar Activity Modeling
• Reference level of the vacuum energy density of the Universe and astrophysical data
• Emulator-based Bayesian Inference on Non-Proportional Scintillation Models by Compton-Edge Probing
• Evidence for thermal X-ray emission from the synchrotron dominated shocks in Tycho's supernova remnant
• Current cosmological constraints on the curvature, dark energy and modified gravity
• Demographics of the M-star Multiple Population in the Orion Nebula Cluster
• Radiative Corrections to the Solar Lepton Mixing Sum Rule
• Bayesian Model comparison of Higgs couplings
• The EDGES measurement disfavors an excess radio background during the cosmic dawn
• Designing Decisive Detections
• Signals embedded in the radial velocity noise
• Bayes and Frequentism: a Particle Physicist's perspective
• Improved Constraints on the Disk Around MWC 349A from the 23-Meter LBTI
• The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs. Revisiting the GJ 581 multi-planetary system with new Doppler measurements from CARMENES, HARPS, and HIRES
• Bayesian analysis of caustic-crossing microlensing events
• The effective running Hubble constant in SNe Ia as a marker for the dark energy nature
• ELT Imaging of MWC 297 from the 23-m LBTI: Complex Disk Structure and a Companion Candidate
• Determination of neutrino mass ordering in future ${}^{76}$Ge-based neutrinoless double-beta decay experiments
• A weak lensing view on primordial non-Gaussianities
• Another look at the dayside spectra of WASP-43b and HD 209458b: are there scattering clouds?
• Hubble tension as a window on the gravitation of the dark matter sector: Exploration of a family of models
• Dark energy reconstruction analysis with artificial neural networks: Application on simulated Supernova Ia data from Rubin Observatory
• New ATCA, ALMA and VISIR observations of the candidate LBV SK-67266 (S61): the nebular mass from modelling 3D density distributions
• Additional JWST/NIRSpec Transits of the Rocky M Dwarf Exoplanet GJ 1132 b Reveal a Featureless Spectrum
• Refractory and Volatile Species in the UV-to-IR Transmission Spectrum of Ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-178b with HST and JWST
• On model emulation and closure tests for 3+1D relativistic heavy-ion collisions
• The CMB cold spot under the lens: ruling out a supervoid interpretation
• Tests of Standard Cosmology in Horava Gravity and Bayesian Evidence for a Closed Universe, and the Hubble Tension
• BEBOP VII. SOPHIE discovery of BEBOP-3b, a circumbinary giant planet on an eccentric orbit
• Probing the Weak Gravity Conjecture in the Cosmic Microwave Background
• Is there a dynamical tendency in H0 with late time measurements?
• Bayesian Comparison of Interacting Modified Holographic Ricci Dark Energy Scenarios
• Global Bayesian Analysis of $\mathrm{J}/\psi$ Photoproduction on Proton and Lead Targets
• Hubble constant by natural selection: Evolution chips in the Hubble tension
• MOJAVE -- XXII. Brightness temperature distributions and geometric profiles along parsec-scale AGN jets
• Enabling Robust Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrievals with Gaussian Processes
• Probing the primordial power spectra with inflationary priors
• Interplay of CMB Temperature, Space Curvature, and Expansion Rate Parameters
• The Massive and Distant Clusters of WISE Survey: SZ effect Verification with the Atacama Compact Array -- Localization and Cluster Analysis
• Measuring the 3D shape of X-ray clusters
• Ignorance based inference of optimality in thermodynamic processes
• The Mass Distribution of the Unusual Merging Cluster Abell 2146 from Strong Lensing
• Entanglement masquerading in the CMB
• Two sub-Neptunes around the M dwarf TOI-1470
• A convenient approach to characterizing model uncertainty with application to early dark energy solutions of the Hubble tension
• A Population Analysis of 20 Exoplanets Observed from the Optical to the Near-infrared Wavelengths with HST: Evidence for Widespread Stellar Contamination
• Disentangling the dust and gas contributions of the JWST/MIRI spectrum of Sz28
• Testing generalized scalar-tensor theories of gravity with clusters of galaxies
• Fundamental Physics and Cosmology with TianQin
• Bayesian cross validation for gravitational-wave searches in pulsar-timing array data
• Cosmological bounds on neutrino statistics
• Line shape analysis of the K$\beta$ transition in muonic hydrogen
• Revisiting the phenomenologically emergent dark energy model: is non-zero equation of state of dark matter favored by DESI DR2?
• Two Dynamical Scenarios for Binned Master Sample Interpretation
• Phantom crossing or dark interaction?
• HD 183579b: A Warm Sub-Neptune Transiting a Solar Twin Detected by TESS
• Two warm Earth-sized exoplanets and an Earth-sized candidate in the M5V-M6V binary system TOI-2267
• DMPP-4: Candidate sub-Neptune mass planets orbiting a naked-eye star
• Cosmological evolution of the gravitational entropy of the large-scale structure
• TOI-5108 b and TOI 5786 b: Two transiting sub-Saturns detected and characterized with TESS, MaHPS and SOPHIE
• Revisiting CPL with sign-switching density: To cross or not to cross the NECB
• Detecting molecules in Ariel low resolution transmission spectra
• Histogram comparison as a powerful tool for the search of new physics at LHC. Application to CMSSM
• Empirical Validation: Investigating the ${\Lambda }_s$CDM Model with new DESI BAO Observations
• Investigating the dynamical models of cosmology with recent observations and upcoming gravitational-wave data
• Addressing the $H_0$ tension through matter with pressure and no early dark energy
• Quantifying the tension between the Higgs mass and (g-2)_mu in the CMSSM
• Reducing nuisance prior sensitivity via non-linear reparameterization, with application to EFT analyses of large-scale structure
• Possible Evidence for the Presence of Volatiles on the Warm Super-Earth TOI-270 b
• Inferring Cosmological Parameters with Evidential Physics-Informed Neural Networks
• Density profile, velocity anisotropy and line-of-sight external convergence of SLACS gravitational lenses
• Bayesian model selection for dark energy using weak lensing forecasts
• Alleviating the Hubble Tension with a Local Void and Transitions of the Absolute Magnitude
• Constraints on non-unitary neutrino mixing in light of atmospheric and reactor neutrino data
• The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs. Occurrence rates of Earth-like planets around very low-mass stars
• Probing the multiwavelength emission scenario of GRB 190114C
• ARES VI: Viability of one-dimensional retrieval models for transmission spectroscopy characterization of exo-atmospheres in the era of JWST and Ariel
• Tentative sensitivity of future $0\nu \beta \beta$-decay experiments to neutrino masses and Majorana CP phases
• An Informational Approach to Cosmological Parameter Estimation
• Is there evidence for CIDER in the Universe?
• Constraints on Bianchi-I type universe with SH0ES anchored Pantheon+ SNIa data
• Searching for the spectral depolarisation of ASKAP one-off FRB sources
• Signal detection for spectroscopy and polarimetry
• Large Field Inflation Models from Higher-Dimensional Gauge Theories
• Improved cosmological fits with quantized primordial power spectra
• Mass Modeling and Kinematics of Galaxy Clusters in Modified Gravity
• The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs. A sub-Neptunian mass planet in the habitable zone of HN Lib
• Studies on dark energy evolution
• Rapid and Late Cosmic Reionization Driven by Massive Galaxies: a Joint Analysis of Constraints from 21-cm, Lyman Line & CMB Data Sets
• ACCESS: Tentative detection of H${}_2$O in the ground-based optical transmission spectrum of the low-density hot Saturn HATS-5b
• Measurement of the charged pion mass using a low-density target of light atoms
• Near-instantaneous Atmospheric Retrievals and Model Comparison with FASTER
• GEMS JWST: Transmission spectroscopy of TOI-5205b reveals significant stellar contamination and a metal-poor atmosphere
• One-parametric description for scalar field dark matter potentials
• Bayesian Model Selection and Uncertainty Propagation for Beam Energy Scan Heavy-Ion Collisions
• Complementarity of Future Dark Energy Probes
• One Extension to Explain Them All, One Scale-Invariant Spectrum to Test Them All, and in One Model Bind Them
• A test of the Suyama-Yamaguchi inequality from weak lensing
• A probabilistic approach to phase calibration: I. Effects of source structure on fringe-fitting
• Teleparallel dark energy in a nonflat universe
• Comparing measures of the Hubble and BAO tensions in $\Lambda$CDM and possible solutions in $f(Q)$ gravity
• Testing time-delayed cosmology
• Bayesian evidence comparison for distance scale estimates
• Dynamical Dark Energy and the Unresolved Hubble Tension: Multi-model Constraints from DESI 2025 and Other Probes
• Modeling Magnetic Flux Emergence in Bipolar Active Regions
• The Similar Seven: A set of very-alike exoplanets to test correlations between system parameters and atmospheric properties
• On the M87 jet structure near the central engine
• Hunting for bumps in the margins
• Bayesian reconstruction of primordial perturbations from induced gravitational waves
• The role of cloud particle properties on WASP-39b transmission spectrum based on JWST/NIRSpec observations
• Osiris revisited: Confirming a solar metallicity and low C/O in HD 209458b
• Detecting episodes of star formation using Bayesian model selection
• Simulation-based marginal likelihood for cluster strong lensing cosmology
• On a possible cosmological evolution of galaxy cluster $Y_{\mathrm{X}}-Y_{\mathrm{SZE}}$ scaling relation
• The ORT and the uGMRT Pulsar Monitoring Program : Pulsar Timing Irregularities & the Gaussian Process Realization
• A general Bayesian model-validation framework based on null-test evidence ratios, with an example application to global 21-cm cosmology
• Confirmation of four hot Jupiters detected by TESS using follow-up spectroscopy from MaHPS at Wendelstein together with NEID and TRES
• Calculating Bayesian evidence for inflationary models using CONNECT
• On the Metric $f(R)$ gravity Viability in Accounting for the Binned Supernovae Data
• Probing the scale of New Physics at the LHC: the example of Higgs data
• Data Analysis and Phenomenological Cosmology
• A Comprehensive Analysis of Insight-HXMT Gamma-Ray Burst Data. I. Power Density Spectrum
• Constraints on the non-minimally coupled Witten-O'Raifeartaigh inflation
• Determination of Hubble constant from Megamaser Cosmology Project using Profile Likelihood
• A Transiting Super-Earth in the Radius Valley and An Outer Planet Candidate Around HD 307842
• Cosmology on a Gravitational Wave Background
• Constraints on Generalized Gravity-Thermodynamic Cosmology from DESI DR2
• Informative Bayesian model selection for RR Lyrae star classifiers
• New Constraints on Anisotropic Expansion from Supernovae Type Ia
• Partition function approach to non-Gaussian likelihoods: Formalism and expansions for weakly non-Gaussian cosmological inference
• Revisiting the Universal Texture Zero of Flavour: a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis
• Probing the independence within the dark sector in the fluid approximation
• Gaussbock: Fast parallel-iterative cosmological parameter estimation with Bayesian nonparametrics
• Detection of Na in the atmosphere of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-55b
• Interpretable and physics-informed emulator for the linear matter power spectrum from machine learning
• TOI-2458 b: A mini-Neptune consistent with in situ hot Jupiter formation
• Quintessence and tachyon dark energy in interaction with dark matter: Observational constraints and model selection
• Modern Bayesian Sampling Methods for Cosmological Inference: A Comparative Study
• Observational constraints on the Kerr and its several single-parameter modified spacetimes using quasi-periodic oscillation data
• Power law $\alpha$-Starobinsky inflation
• Dynamical Architectures of S-type Transiting Planets in Binaries II: A Dichotomy in Orbital Alignment of Small Planets in Close Binary Systems
• Testing black hole space-times with the S2 star orbit: a Bayesian comparison
• Precise radial velocities of giant stars -- XVII. Distinguishing planets from intrinsically induced radial velocity signals in evolved stars
• Knowing when to stop
• DESI constraints on two-field quintessence with exponential potentials
• Bayes and present dark matter direct search status
• True Masses using RV data with Hipparcos and Gaia Astrometry
• A Two-limb Explanation for the Optical-to-infrared Transmission Spectrum of the Hot Jupiter HAT-P-32Ab
• Intrinsic regularization effect in Bayesian nonlinear regression scaled by observed data
• Tensor Tilt from Primordial B-modes
• Bayesian analysis of the backreaction models
• RedDots: Planetary masses in the GJ1061 system from planet-planet interaction
• Particle Production Scenario in an Algebraically Coupled Quintessence Field with a Dark Matter Fluid
• Selecting fitted models under epistemic uncertainty using a stochastic process on quantile functions
• Radio Galaxy Detection in the Visibility Domain
• An Assessment of Organics Detection and Characterization on the Surface of Europa with Infrared Spectroscopy
• Asteroseismic Data Analysis with DIAMONDS
• Separating flare and secondary atmospheric signals with RADYN modeling of near-infrared JWST transmission spectroscopy observations of TRAPPIST-1
• The Bayesian Global Sky Model (B-GSM): Validation of a Data Driven Bayesian Simultaneous Component Separation and Calibration Algorithm for EoR Foreground Modelling
• To CPL, or not to CPL? What we have not learned about the dark energy equation of state
• The Virtues of Frugality - Why cosmological observers should release their data slowly
• Assessing the Robustness of the CPL Parametrization to Basis and Prior Variations: Insights from DESI DR2 BAO Data
• Confronting compositional confusion through the characterisation of the sub-Neptune orbiting HD 77946
• The running of featureful primordial power spectra
• NGTS-EB-8: A double-lined eclipsing M+M binary discovered by citizen scientists
• Agegraphic dark energy from entropy of the anti-de Sitter black hole
• Hot Rocks Survey V: Secondary Eclipse Photometry of GJ 3473 b with JWST/MIRI
• Searching for bias and correlations in a Bayesian way
• Conformal Killing Gravity: New Constraints from DESI DR2 BAO datasets
• KRONOS I: The $1-2.8\mu$m JWST Transmission Spectrum of the 23 Myr V1298 Tau c
• Evidence for stellar contamination and water absorption in NGTS-5b's transmission spectra with GTC/OSIRIS
• HyDRo: Atmospheric Retrieval of Rocky Exoplanets in Thermal Emission
• Discovery of a transiting hot water-world candidate orbiting Ross 176 with TESS and CARMENES
• Comparing LambdaCDM, wCDM, and w0waCDM models with DESI DR2 BAO: Redshift-Resolved Diagnostics and the Role of rd
• Compact Objects in 4D Einstein Gauss Bonnet Gravity A Data Based Perspective
• The fine structure of the mean magnetic field in M31
• The X-ray variability of tidal disruption events
• Detecting binarity of GW150914-like lenses in gravitational microlensing events
• Modified Compton Effect and CMB Anisotropy
• Search for giant planets in M67 V: a warm Jupiter orbiting the turn-off star S1429
• A new third planet and the dynamical architecture of the HD33142 planetary system
• Revisiting the Matter Creation Process: Observational Constraints on Gravitationally Induced Dark Energy and the Hubble Tension
• Cosmological and lunar laser ranging constraints on evolving dark energy in a nonminimally coupled curvature-matter gravity model
• Multicolour Validation of Two Temperate Mini-Neptunes Around M-dwarf Habitable Zones
• Bayesian and Machine-Learning Analyses of Nonminimal $f(Q)$ Gravity and $H_0$ Tension
• Relativistic Langevin Equation derived from a particle-bath Lagrangian
• BEBOP II: Sensitivity to sub-Saturn circumbinary planets using radial-velocities
• Bayes' Theorem, Inflation, and the Ekpyrotic Universe
• Two Rings and a Marginally Resolved, 5 AU, Disk Around LkCa 15 Identified Via Near Infrared Sparse Aperture Masking Interferometry
• Quantifying Weighted Morphological Content of Large-Scale Structures via Simulation-Based Inference
• Conditional variational autoencoders for cosmological model discrimination and anomaly detection in cosmic microwave background power spectra
• Neutrino Mass Ordering in Future Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay Experiments
• Sector-Resolved Bayesian Model Averaging for DESI-Era Cosmology
• Physical Conditions in the LMC's Quiescent Molecular Ridge: Fitting Non-LTE Models to CO Emission
• $S_8$ from peculiar velocities: agreement with Planck for Tully--Fisher and supernovae, tension for the fundamental plane
• TOI-1201 b: A mini-Neptune transiting a bright and moderately young M dwarf
• Improved characterization of the TOI-2141 system: a dense sub-Neptune with non-transiting inner and outer companions
• Slicing cluster mass functions with a Bayesian razor
• How Holographic is the Dark Energy? A Spline Nodal reconstruction approach
• Is Dark Energy an Effective Manifestation of Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics? -- Insights from DESI
• $\text{Exoformer}$: Accelerating Bayesian atmospheric retrievals with transformer neural networks
• Multiwavelength study of non-thermal emission in the Swift J1834.9-0846/W41 region
• JWST unveils a high mean molecular weight atmosphere for mini-Neptune TOI-1130b: Evidence for formation beyond the water ice line
• The HUSTLE Program: The UV to Near-IR Transmission Spectrum of the Hot Jupiter KELT-7b
• Information content on Venusian aerosols in VIRTIS-M infrared data
• APES: Approximate Posterior Ensemble Sampler
• Multiwavelength Properties of Infrared-Faint Radio Sources Based on Spectral Energy Distribution Analysis
• Modifying $\Lambda$CDM dynamics via out-of-equilibrium axions: reconciling SH0ES and DESI $H_0$ values
• Genetic algorithm demystified for cosmological parameter estimation
• Nature-inspired optimization, the Philippine Eagle, and cosmological parameter estimation
• From Geometry to Observation: Gravitational Waves and the Raychaudhuri Equation
• No preference for generalized emergent dark energy from current cosmological data
• A Quantitative Framework for Testing the Hubble Tension in a Bianchi Type I Cosmological Background
• A Bayesian Approach for Strong Field QED Tests with He-like Ions
• Constraints on the Modified Emergent Dark Energy Model Using DESI DR2 BAO
• Running Einstein Constant and a Possible Vacuum State of the Universe
• Testing a Sign-Switch Cosmological Model with Curvature through Latest Planck 2018, DESI DR2 and PantheonPlus\&SH0ES Observational Data
• Redshift Evolution of the HII Galaxy $L$-$\sigma$ Relation: Gaussian Process Analysis and Cosmological Implications
• A new model test in high energy physics in frequentist and Bayesian statistical formalisms
• Time-resolved JWST Retrieval Analysis of the Coldest Brown Dwarf: Temperature and Chemical Variations in WISE 0855-07
• Determination of neutron star radius from pulse profile modeling using profile likelihood
• Panchromatic View of the Frigid Jovian Exoplanet COCONUTS-2 b
• Information content of JWST transmission spectroscopy of the exoplanet HAT-P-12b from the optical to the mid-infrared
• Impact of the Infrared Cutoff on Structure Formation in Tsallis Holographic Dark Energy
• The GAPS Programme at the TNG: LXX. TOI-5734b: A hot sub-Neptune orbiting a relatively young K dwarf with an Earth-like density
• Heavy interstellar scattering toward the near end of the Galactic bar
• The Evolution of the SFR-M_* relation at 0.1<z<4: Environmental and Morphological Dependencies
• Improving exoplanet mass characterisation with Bayesian model selection using the Learned Harmonic Mean Estimator
• The effect of JWST/NIRSpec data reduction on the retrieval of WASP-39b atmospheric properties
• Possible favored Great Oxidation Event scenario on exoplanets around M-Stars with the example of TRAPPIST-1e
• Calibrating Bayesian Tension Statistics using Neural Ratio Estimation
• Testing the Anton-Schmidt dark energy model with the DESI DR2 measurements