Model selection forecasts for the spectral index from the Planck satellite

Abstract

The recent WMAP3 results have placed measurements of the spectral index n_S in an interesting position. While parameter estimation techniques indicate that the Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum n_S=1 is strongly excluded (in the absence of tensor perturbations), Bayesian model selection techniques reveal that the case against n_S=1 is not yet conclusive. In this paper, we forecast the ability of the Planck satellite mission to use Bayesian model selection to convincingly exclude (or favour) the Harrison-Zel'dovich model.

4 pages RevTeX with one figure included. Updated to match PRD accepted version. Improved likelihood function implementation; no qualitative change to results but some tiny numerical shifts

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