Sector-Resolved Bayesian Model Averaging for DESI-Era Cosmology

Abstract

We present a quotient-space Bayesian formulation for DESI-era anomaly interpretation. Given a pattern-labeled catalog with map \(i\mapsto \Act(i)\), the induced posterior \(p(\Act\mid D)\), sector inclusion probabilities \(P_α\), co-activation probabilities \(P_{αβ}\), and grouped Bayes factors \(B_α(D)\) are exact summaries over predeclared physical activation events. Pairwise comparisons such as \(\lcdm\) versus \(\wacdm\) remain ordinary Bayes-factor tests between specified families; the quotient construction addresses the coarser question of which physical sector carries posterior support when different sectors are represented by unequal numbers of catalog elements. We derive a sector-resolved DESI-CMB-SN likelihood specification for late-time background, early-time ruler, supernova calibration, perturbation, and gravitational-wave propagation sectors. The construction includes an Alcock-Paczynski/isotropic-scale BAO decomposition, a pure-ruler projection, analytic marginalization of low-rank supernova calibration modes, Fisher-normalized sector priors, inactive-sector leakage tests, log-evidence uncertainty propagation, and prior/sector-partition diagnostics. The result is a quantitative procedure for reporting model-comparison support at the level of physically interpretable sectors.

arXiv comment22 pages, 2 figures, and 6 tables

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