New physics in light of the $H_0$ tension: an alternative view

Abstract

The strong discrepancy between local and inverse distance ladder estimates of the Hubble constant $H_0$ could be pointing towards new physics beyond $\Lambda$CDM. Several attempts to address this tension through new physics rely on extended models, featuring extra free parameters beyond the 6 $\Lambda$CDM parameters. However, marginalizing over extra parameters has the effect of broadening the uncertainties on the inferred parameters, and it is often the case that within these models the $H_0$ tension is addressed due to larger uncertainties rather than a genuine shift in the central value of $H_0$. What happens if a physical theory is able to fix the extra parameters to a specific set of non-standard values? The degrees of freedom of the model are reduced with respect to the standard case where the extra parameters are free to vary. Focusing on the dark energy equation of state $w$ and the effective number of relativistic species $N_{\mathrm{eff}}$, I find that physical theories able to fix $w\approx -1.3$ or $N_{\mathrm{eff}}\approx 3.95$ would lead to an estimate of $H_0$ from CMB, BAO, and SNeIa data in perfect agreement with the local distance ladder estimate, without broadening its uncertainty. These two non-standard models are, from a model-selection perspective, strongly disfavoured with respect to $\Lambda$CDM. However, models that predict $N_{\mathrm{eff}}\approx 3.45$ would be able to bring the tension down to $1.5\sigma$ while only being weakly disfavored with respect to $\Lambda$CDM, whereas models that predict $w\approx -1.1$ would be able to bring the tension down to $2\sigma$ (at the cost of the preference for $\Lambda$CDM being definite). Finally, I estimate dimensionless multipliers relating variations in $H_0$ to variations in $w$ and $N_{\mathrm{eff}}$, which can be used to repeat the analysis of this paper in light of future more precise local distance ladder estimates of $H_0$.

28 pages, 10 figures. Added references and discussion on physical models able to fix w or Neff to non-standard values (Section IVD). Clarified the aim of this work more clearly (I am not trying to evade or ignore additional degrees of freedom), many thanks to the referee for help! Abstract abridged. The busy reader should skip to Fig. 1, 2, 4, 5, and 10

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• Investigating the $w$CDM Model with Latest DESI BAO Observations
• Combining strongly lensed and unlensed fast radio bursts: To be a more precise late-universe probe
• Unveiling the Effects of Coupling Extended Proca-Nuevo Gravity on Cosmic Expansion with Recent Observations
• Synergy Between Hubble Tension Motivated Self-Interacting Neutrino and KeV-Sterile Neutrino Dark Matter
• Is there evidence for CIDER in the Universe?
• Uncalibrated Cosmic Standards as a Robust Test on Late-Time Cosmological Models
• Revisiting holographic dark energy from the perspective of multi-messenger gravitational wave astronomy: future joint observations with short gamma-ray bursts
• Scalar field dark energy: Insights into cosmological evolution and black hole accretion
• Constant-roll, cosmic acceleration, and massive neutrinos
• A comprehensive data-driven odyssey to explore the equation of state of dark energy
• Linking the $R_{K^{(\ast )}}$ anomalies to the Hubble tension via a single right-handed neutrino
• Addressing the $r_d$ Tension using Late-Time Observational Measurements in a Novel deceleration Parametrization
• Statistics of Thawing K-essence Dark Energy Models
• Hubble tension and matter inhomogeneities: a theoretical perspective
• Effects of particle creation rate in two-fluid interacting cosmologies
• Evidence for evolving dark energy from DESI DR2 BAO and Pantheon${}^{+}$, DES-Dovekie, and Union3
• Dark Energy in the DESI Era: A Brief Review of Evidence, Beyond-$\Lambda$CDM Interpretations, and Tensions
• Quantum Entropy-Driven Modifications to Holographic Dark Energy in $f(G,T)$ Gravity
• One Extension to Explain Them All, One Scale-Invariant Spectrum to Test Them All, and in One Model Bind Them
• Decay of dark energy into dark matter in a metric $f(R)$ gravity: effective running Hubble constant
• Another look on the connections of Hubble tension with the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
• Equality scale-based and sound horizon-based analysis of the Hubble tension
• Measuring neutrino mass in light of ACT DR6 and DESI DR2
• Cosmic curvature on large-scale structures with homogeneous dark energy
• Dynamics of holographic dark energy with apparent-horizon cutoff and non-minimal derivative coupling gravity in non-flat FLRW universe
• Prospects of probing dark energy with eLISA: Standard versus null diagnostics
• Redshift-space distortion constraints on the neutrino mass and models to alleviate the Hubble tension
• Do neutrinos bend? Consequences of an ultralight gauge field as dark matter
• Dynamical Dark Energy and the Unresolved Hubble Tension: Multi-model Constraints from DESI 2025 and Other Probes
• A varying Dark Energy effective speed of sound parameter in the phantom Universe
• What Prevents Resolving the Hubble Tension through Late-Time Expansion Modifications?
• Prospects for measuring neutrino mass with 21-cm forest
• Thermodynamics of a transient phantom scenario
• Sound Horizon Independent Constraints on Early Dark Energy: The Role of Supernova Data
• The scalar-torsion gravity corrections in the first-order inflationary models
• Dynamical systems analysis of a cosmological model with interacting Umami Chaplygin fluid in adiabatic particle creation mechanism: Some bouncing features
• Constraints on the phase transition of Early Dark Energy with the CMB anisotropies
• Neutrino mass and kinetic gravity braiding degeneracies
• Interpretation of the XENON1T excess in the model with decaying sterile neutrinos
• Multi-messenger standard-siren cosmology for third-generation gravitational-wave detectors: forecasts considering observations of gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae
• Defrosting and Blast Freezing Dark Matter
• Late Time Phenomena in $f(T,\mathcal{T})$ Gravity Framework: Role of $H_0$ Priors
• Updated neutrino mass constraints from galaxy clustering and CMB lensing-galaxy cross-correlation measurements
• Testing the coupling of dark radiations in light of the Hubble tension
• Kinetic recoupling of dark matter
• Determining $H_0$ from distance sum rule combining gamma-ray bursts with observational Hubble data and strong gravitational lensing
• Reconciling cosmic dipolar tensions with a gigaparsec void
• Hubble Tension and Dark Energy in Teleparallel Gauss-Bonnet Gravity: New Constraints from DESI BAO, Pantheon${}^{+}$ and Hubble Data
• Reconciling Cosmological Tensions with Inelastic Dark Matter and Dark Radiation in a $\mathbf{U}(1{)}_{\mathbf{D}}$ Framework
• Cosmological models, observational data and tension in Hubble constant
• Cosmological singularities in non-canonical models of dark energy
• Signature of $f\left(R\right)$ gravity via Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi inhomogeneous perturbations
• Asymmetry in galaxy spin directions: a fully reproducible experiment using HSC data
• Can cosmic rotation resolve the Hubble tension? Constraints from CMB and large-scale structure
• Dark energy, spatial curvature, and star formation efficiency from JWST photometric and spectroscopic high-redshift galaxies
• Testing Exponential $f(R)$ Gravity with CMB, DESI-DR2, and Supernova Data
• A Review on Resolving the Hubble Tension via Late-Universe Physics
• The dynamics of vacuum, gravity and matter: Implications on the fundamental constants
• Gaussian discriminators between $\Lambda$CDM and wCDM cosmologies using expansion data
• Toward Cosmological Standard Timers in Primordial Black Hole Binaries
• Particle Production Scenario in an Algebraically Coupled Quintessence Field with a Dark Matter Fluid
• Dark matter fluid constraints from galaxy rotation curves
• Dissecting the $H_0$ and $S_8$ tensions with Planck + BAO + supernova type Ia in multi-parameter cosmologies
• Implications of single field inflation in general cosmological scenarios on the nature of dark energy given the swampland conjectures
• The four-dimensional null energy condition as a swampland conjecture
• Brans-Dicke-like field for co-varying $G$ and $c$: observational constraints
• Exploring the cosmic microwave background dipole direction using gamma-ray bursts
• New tests of dark sector interactions from the full-shape galaxy power spectrum
• The Hubble Tension: Relativistic Dark Matter Production from Long-lived Particles
• Primordial observables of explicit diffeomorphism violation in gravity
• Conditional variational autoencoders for cosmological model discrimination and anomaly detection in cosmic microwave background power spectra
• Constraints on polynomial inflation under power-law perturbations
• Explaining lepton-flavor non-universality and self-interacting dark matter with $L_{\mu }-L_{\tau }$
• Testing the cosmic distance duality relation using model-independent approach
• Running Einstein Constant and a Possible Vacuum State of the Universe
• Evolution of Cosmological Total Energy Density and Transient Periods in Cosmology
• Phenomenological model explaining Hubble Tension origin
• Is the $\Lambda$CDM Model in Crisis?
• Constraints on the Modified Emergent Dark Energy Model Using DESI DR2 BAO
• Resolving the Hubble Tension in the Early Dark Energy Framework with JWST and DESI Data
• How Holographic is the Dark Energy? A Spline Nodal reconstruction approach
• Constraints on energy scales from dark matter decay in a gauged $B-L$ model
• Yano-Schrödinger Hyperfluid: Cosmological Implications
• Nature-inspired optimization, the Philippine Eagle, and cosmological parameter estimation
• Revisiting the Matter Creation Process: Observational Constraints on Gravitationally Induced Dark Energy and the Hubble Tension
• A study of potential non-relativistic QED pairs in the Keldysh-Schwinger formalism
• Perturbations In Some Dark Energy Models