New physics in light of the $H_0$ tension: an alternative view

Abstract

The strong discrepancy between local and inverse distance ladder estimates of the Hubble constant $H_0$ could be pointing towards new physics beyond $\Lambda$CDM. Several attempts to address this tension through new physics rely on extended models, featuring extra free parameters beyond the 6 $\Lambda$CDM parameters. However, marginalizing over extra parameters has the effect of broadening the uncertainties on the inferred parameters, and it is often the case that within these models the $H_0$ tension is addressed due to larger uncertainties rather than a genuine shift in the central value of $H_0$. What happens if a physical theory is able to fix the extra parameters to a specific set of non-standard values? The degrees of freedom of the model are reduced with respect to the standard case where the extra parameters are free to vary. Focusing on the dark energy equation of state $w$ and the effective number of relativistic species $N_{\mathrm{eff}}$, I find that physical theories able to fix $w\approx -1.3$ or $N_{\mathrm{eff}}\approx 3.95$ would lead to an estimate of $H_0$ from CMB, BAO, and SNeIa data in perfect agreement with the local distance ladder estimate, without broadening its uncertainty. These two non-standard models are, from a model-selection perspective, strongly disfavoured with respect to $\Lambda$CDM. However, models that predict $N_{\mathrm{eff}}\approx 3.45$ would be able to bring the tension down to $1.5\sigma$ while only being weakly disfavored with respect to $\Lambda$CDM, whereas models that predict $w\approx -1.1$ would be able to bring the tension down to $2\sigma$ (at the cost of the preference for $\Lambda$CDM being definite). Finally, I estimate dimensionless multipliers relating variations in $H_0$ to variations in $w$ and $N_{\mathrm{eff}}$, which can be used to repeat the analysis of this paper in light of future more precise local distance ladder estimates of $H_0$.

arXiv comment28 pages, 10 figures. Added references and discussion on physical models able to fix w or Neff to non-standard values (Section IVD). Clarified the aim of this work more clearly (I am not trying to evade or ignore additional degrees of freedom), many thanks to the referee for help! Abstract abridged. The busy reader should skip to Fig. 1, 2, 4, 5, and 10

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• Cosmology with fast radio bursts in the era of SKA
• Cosmic expansion parametrization: Implication for curvature and ${\text{H}}_0$ tension
• Cosmology Intertwined: A Review of the Particle Physics, Astrophysics, and Cosmology Associated with the Cosmological Tensions and Anomalies
• Prospects for Measuring the Hubble Constant with Neutron-Star-Black-Hole Mergers
• Updating non-standard neutrinos properties with Planck-CMB data and full-shape analysis of BOSS and eBOSS galaxies
• Hubble tension bounds the GUP and EUP parameters
• An Effective Sign Switching Dark Energy: Lotka-Volterra Model of Two Interacting Fluids
• Toward a concordance teleparallel Cosmology I: Background Dynamics
• A new coupled three-form dark energy model and implications for the $H_0$ tension
• Smoothing the $H_0$ tension with a dynamical dark energy model
• Analyzing the geometrical and dynamical parameters of modified Teleparallel-Gauss-Bonnet model
• Exploration of interacting dynamical dark energy model with interaction term including the equation-of-state parameter: alleviation of the $H_0$ tension
• Testing dark energy after pre-recombination early dark energy
• Hubble tension as a guide for refining the early Universe: Cosmologies with explicit local Lorentz and diffeomorphism violation
• Dissimilar Donuts in the Sky? Effects of a Pressure Singularity on the Circular Photon Orbits and Shadow of a Cosmological Black Hole
• An effective description of Laniakea: impact on cosmology and the local determination of the Hubble constant
• Cosmological implications of an interacting model of dark matter \& dark energy
• Joint constraints on cosmological parameters using future multi-band gravitational wave standard siren observations
• Multiple transitions in vacuum dark energy and $H_0$ tension
• Model independent bounds on Type Ia supernova absolute peak magnitude
• Sources of $H_0$-tensions in dark energy scenarios
• Maximally self-interacting dark matter: models and predictions
• Transition dynamics in the ${\Lambda }_{\mathrm{s}}$CDM model: Implications for bound cosmic structures
• Saez-Ballester gravity in Kantowski-Sachs Universe: a new reconstruction paradigm for Barrow Holographic Dark Energy
• Strong lens modelling: comparing and combining Bayesian neural networks and parametric profile fitting
• Constraining the dark-energy equation of state with cosmological data
• Dark energy by natural evolution: Constraining dark energy using Approximate Bayesian Computation
• Exploring the Hubble tension with a late time Modified Gravity scenario
• Physical vs phantom dark energy after DESI: thawing quintessence in a curved background
• Velocity-dependent interacting dark energy and dark matter with a Lagrangian description of perfect fluids
• Possible Hints of Sterile Neutrinos in Recent Measurements of the Hubble Parameter
• Weyl type $f(Q,T)$ gravity observational constrained cosmological model
• Light gravitino dark matter: LHC searches and Hubble tension
• Modelling the Accelerating Universe with $f(Q)$ Gravity: Observational Consistency
• Is Dark Energy Dynamical in the DESI Era? A Critical Review
• Exploring the Hubble Tension and Spatial Curvature from the Ages of Old Astrophysical Objects
• Implications of an extended dark energy model with massive neutrinos
• ${\Lambda }_{\mathrm{s}}$CDM cosmology: Alleviating major cosmological tensions by predicting standard neutrino properties
• Towards a possible solution to the Hubble tension with Horndeski gravity
• Energy condition bounds on $f(Q)$ model parameters in a curved FLRW universe
• Cosmological constraints on nonphantom dynamical dark energy with DESI Data Release 2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillations: A 3$\sigma$+ lensing anomaly
• Decaying dark matter, the $H_0$ tension, and the lithium problem
• Novel constraints on fifth forces and ultralight dark sector with asteroidal data
• Dynamical Dark Energy in the Crosshairs: A Joint Analysis with DESI, Pantheon plus, and TDCOSMO Constraints
• Probing the interaction between dark energy and dark matter with future fast radio burst observations
• Impact of the Hubble tension on the $r$-$n_s$ contour
• New late-time constraints on $f(R)$ gravity
• Alleviating $H_0$ Tension with New Gravitational Scalar Tensor Theories
• Bayesian model selection on Scalar $\epsilon$-Field Dark Energy
• Newest measurements of Hubble constant from DESI 2024 BAO observations
• A comprehensive forecast for cosmological parameter estimation using joint observations of gravitational waves and short $\gamma$-ray bursts
• Gaussian Process Approach for Model-Independent Reconstruction of $f(Q)$ Gravity with Direct Hubble Measurements
• Kinetic Model for Dark Energy - Dark Matter Interaction: Scenario for the Hubble Tension
• Questioning the $H_0$ tension via the look-back time
• Phantom braneworld and the Hubble tension
• Toward a concordance teleparallel Cosmology II: Linear perturbation
• Can phantom transition at $z\sim 1$ restore the Cosmic concordance?
• Alleviating $H_0$ tension in Horndeski gravity
• Cosmological model-independent measurement of cosmic curvature using distance sum rule with the help of gravitational waves
• Hints for possible low redshift oscillation around the best fit $\Lambda$CDM model in the expansion history of the Universe
• Dynamical systems analysis of tachyon dark energy model from a new perspective
• Three open clusters containing Cepheids: NGC 6649, NGC 6664 and Berkeley 55
• Hubble constant and sound horizon from the late-time Universe
• A search for sterile neutrinos in interacting dark energy models using DESI baryon acoustic oscillations and DES supernovae data
• Analyzing the Hubble tension through hidden sector dynamics in the early universe
• Consistency tests between SDSS and DESI BAO measurements
• Cascading Dark Energy
• Running vacuum in Brans-Dicke theory: a possible cure for the ${\sigma }_8$ and $H_0$ tensions
• Constraints on Newton's Constant from Cosmological Observations
• When FIMPs Decay into Neutrinos: The $N_{\mathrm{eff}}$ Story
• Cosmic variance of $H_0$ in light of forthcoming high-redshift surveys
• Exploring Universe acceleration through observational constraints via Hubble parameter reconstruction
• Measuring Hubble constant in an anisotropic extension of $\Lambda$CDM model
• Bounce Models within Teleparallel modified gravity
• Cosmological search for sterile neutrinos after Planck 2018
• $U(1{)}_{L_{\mu }-L_{\tau }}$ for Light Dark Matter, $g_{\mu }-2$, the $511$ keV excess and the Hubble Tension
• Shedding Light on Dark Matter and Neutrino Interactions from Cosmology
• Planck-PR4 anisotropy spectra show (better) consistency with General Relativity
• Dark Sectors with Mass Thresholds Face Cosmological Datasets
• Alleviating $H_0$ tension in scalar-tensor and bi-scalar-tensor theories
• Robust evidence for dynamical dark energy in light of DESI DR2 and joint ACT, SPT, and Planck data
• Testing the $n_s-H_0$ scaling relation with Planck-independent CMB data
• Strongly lensed type Ia supernovae as a precise late-universe probe of measuring the Hubble constant and cosmic curvature
• A critical discussion on the $H_0$ tension
• Running Hubble constant: evolutionary Dark Energy
• A Model of Interacting Dark Matter and Dark Radiation for $H_0$ and ${\sigma }_8$ Tensions
• Modified gravity in the presence of matter creation: scenario for the late Universe
• Improved null tests of $\Lambda$CDM and FLRW in light of DESI DR2
• Dark energy reconstructions combining BAO data with galaxy clusters and intermediate redshift catalogs
• Non-standard neutrino interactions in light mediator models at reactor experiments
• Constraining $\Lambda$CDM cosmological parameters with Einstein Telescope mock data
• Differentiating dark interactions with perturbation
• Testing the Cosmic Distance Duality Relation Using Strong Gravitational Lensing Time Delays and Type Ia Supernovae
• Toward a simultaneous resolution of the $H_0$ and $S_8$ tensions: early dark energy and an interacting dark sector model
• A preference for dynamical phantom dark energy using one-parameter model with Planck, DESI DR1 BAO and SN data
• Phase-space analysis of dark energy models in non-minimally coupled theories of gravity
• CMB signature of non-thermal Dark Matter produced from self-interacting dark sector
• Early Dark Energy from a Higher-dimensional Gauge Theory
• Axion Dark Radiation: Hubble Tension and Hyper-kamiokande Neutrino Experiment
• Discovering strongly lensed quasar candidates with catalogue-based methods from DESI Legacy Surveys
• Reducing the $H_0$ Tension with Exponential Acoustic Dark Energy
• Neutron Stars in Modified Teleparallel Gravity
• $H_0$ tension without CMB data: beyond the $\Lambda$CDM
• Apparent dark matter as a non-local manifestation of emergent gravity
• Non-oscillating Early Dark Energy and Quintessence from Alpha-Attractors
• Tachyonic cosmology with cubic contractions of the Riemann tensor
• Investigating The Hubble Tension Through Hubble Parameter Data
• Cosmological Parameter Estimation Using Current and Future Observations of Strong Gravitational Lensing
• Does the fraction of dark matter diminish with early dark energy?
• Early dark energy and the screening mechanism
• Minimal model dependent constraints on cosmological nuisance parameters and cosmic curvature from combinations of cosmological data
• Gravitational waves in higher-order $R^2$ gravity
• HI intensity mapping with MeerKAT: forecast for delay power spectrum measurement using interferometer mode
• Reconstructing the Hubble parameter with future Gravitational Wave missions using Machine Learning
• Analytical Gaussian Process Cosmography: Unveiling Insights into Matter-Energy Density Parameter at Present
• A visual tool for assessing tension-resolving models in the $H_0$-${\sigma }_8$ plane
• Solar chameleons: Novel channels
• The H0 trouble: Confronting Non-thermal Dark Matter and Phantom Cosmology with the CMB, BAO, and Type Ia Supernovae data
• Quintessential early dark energy
• Post-reionization HI 21-cm signal: A probe of negative cosmological constant
• Constraints on the speed of sound in the k-essence model of dark energy
• Cosmological Distances And Hubble Tension In Einstein-Cartan Theory
• Dynamical features of $f(T,B)$ cosmology
• Probing Weyl-type $f(Q,T)$ gravity: Cosmological implications and constraints
• Dark energy constraint on equation of state parameter in the Weyl type $f(Q,T)$ gravity
• Possible Resolution of the Hubble Tension with Weyl Invariant Gravity
• A study of interacting scalar field model from the perspective of the dynamical systems theory
• Decay of $f(R)$ quintessence into dark matter: mitigating the Hubble tension?
• Torsion cosmology in the light of DESI, supernovae and CMB observational constraints
• Imprint of Early Dark Energy in Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background
• Cosmological Boundary Flux Parameter
• Gravitational waves from inspiraling black holes in quadratic gravity
• Cosmological Fisher forecasts for next-generation spectroscopic surveys
• General parametrization for energy density of quintessence field
• Constraining deviations from $\Lambda$CDM in the Hubble expansion rate
• Imprints of screened dark energy on nonlocal quantum correlations
• Investigating the Hubble Tension: Effect of Cepheid Calibration
• Domain Wall Network: A Dual Solution for Gravitational Waves and Hubble Tension?
• Addressing the Hubble tension in Yukawa cosmology?
• Extended Uncertainty Principle: A Deeper Insight into the Hubble Tension?
• Hubble constant by natural selection: Evolution chips in the Hubble tension
• $\Lambda$CDM as a Noether Symmetry in Cosmology
• Testing the cosmic distance duality relation with baryon acoustic oscillations and supernovae data
• Revisiting CPL with sign-switching density: To cross or not to cross the NECB
• Eliminating the Hubble Tension in the Presence of the Interconnection between Dark Energy and Matter in the Modern Universe
• Metastability in Emergent Dark Energy: A New Framework Confronting Cosmological Observations
• Fireball baryogenesis from early structure formation due to Yukawa forces
• Revisiting the phenomenologically emergent dark energy model: is non-zero equation of state of dark matter favored by DESI DR2?
• On measuring the Hubble constant with X-ray reverberation mapping of active galactic nuclei
• Probing departures from $\Lambda$CDM by late-time datasets
• Empirical Validation: Investigating the ${\Lambda }_s$CDM Model with new DESI BAO Observations
• Investigating the $w$CDM Model with Latest DESI BAO Observations
• Unveiling the Effects of Coupling Extended Proca-Nuevo Gravity on Cosmic Expansion with Recent Observations
• Is there evidence for CIDER in the Universe?
• Uncalibrated Cosmic Standards as a Robust Test on Late-Time Cosmological Models
• Synergy Between Hubble Tension Motivated Self-Interacting Neutrino and KeV-Sterile Neutrino Dark Matter
• Revisiting holographic dark energy from the perspective of multi-messenger gravitational wave astronomy: future joint observations with short gamma-ray bursts
• Combining strongly lensed and unlensed fast radio bursts: To be a more precise late-universe probe
• Statistics of Thawing K-essence Dark Energy Models
• Evidence for evolving dark energy from DESI DR2 BAO and Pantheon${}^{+}$, DES-Dovekie, and Union3
• Decay of dark energy into dark matter in a metric $f(R)$ gravity: effective running Hubble constant
• Scalar field dark energy: Insights into cosmological evolution and black hole accretion
• One Extension to Explain Them All, One Scale-Invariant Spectrum to Test Them All, and in One Model Bind Them
• Dark Energy in the DESI Era: A Brief Review of Evidence, Beyond-$\Lambda$CDM Interpretations, and Tensions
• Linking the $R_{K^{(\ast )}}$ anomalies to the Hubble tension via a single right-handed neutrino
• A comprehensive data-driven odyssey to explore the equation of state of dark energy
• Constant-roll, cosmic acceleration, and massive neutrinos
• Quantum Entropy-Driven Modifications to Holographic Dark Energy in $f(G,T)$ Gravity
• Effects of particle creation rate in two-fluid interacting cosmologies
• Addressing the $r_d$ Tension using Late-Time Observational Measurements in a Novel deceleration Parametrization
• Hubble tension and matter inhomogeneities: a theoretical perspective
• What Prevents Resolving the Hubble Tension through Late-Time Expansion Modifications?
• Dynamical Dark Energy and the Unresolved Hubble Tension: Multi-model Constraints from DESI 2025 and Other Probes
• Redshift-space distortion constraints on the neutrino mass and models to alleviate the Hubble tension
• Prospects of probing dark energy with eLISA: Standard versus null diagnostics
• Cosmic curvature on large-scale structures with homogeneous dark energy
• A varying Dark Energy effective speed of sound parameter in the phantom Universe
• Dynamics of holographic dark energy with apparent-horizon cutoff and non-minimal derivative coupling gravity in non-flat FLRW universe
• Do neutrinos bend? Consequences of an ultralight gauge field as dark matter
• Measuring neutrino mass in light of ACT DR6 and DESI DR2
• Equality scale-based and sound horizon-based analysis of the Hubble tension
• Another look on the connections of Hubble tension with the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle
• Multi-messenger standard-siren cosmology for third-generation gravitational-wave detectors: forecasts considering observations of gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae
• Defrosting and Blast Freezing Dark Matter
• Prospects for measuring neutrino mass with 21-cm forest
• Dynamical systems analysis of a cosmological model with interacting Umami Chaplygin fluid in adiabatic particle creation mechanism: Some bouncing features
• Sound Horizon Independent Constraints on Early Dark Energy: The Role of Supernova Data
• Constraints on the phase transition of Early Dark Energy with the CMB anisotropies
• The scalar-torsion gravity corrections in the first-order inflationary models
• Interpretation of the XENON1T excess in the model with decaying sterile neutrinos
• Neutrino mass and kinetic gravity braiding degeneracies
• Thermodynamics of a transient phantom scenario
• Cosmological models, observational data and tension in Hubble constant
• Updated neutrino mass constraints from galaxy clustering and CMB lensing-galaxy cross-correlation measurements
• Hubble Tension and Dark Energy in Teleparallel Gauss-Bonnet Gravity: New Constraints from DESI BAO, Pantheon${}^{+}$ and Hubble Data
• Determining $H_0$ from distance sum rule combining gamma-ray bursts with observational Hubble data and strong gravitational lensing
• Late Time Phenomena in $f(T,\mathcal{T})$ Gravity Framework: Role of $H_0$ Priors
• Reconciling Cosmological Tensions with Inelastic Dark Matter and Dark Radiation in a $\mathbf{U}(1{)}_{\mathbf{D}}$ Framework
• Cosmological singularities in non-canonical models of dark energy
• Kinetic recoupling of dark matter
• Testing the coupling of dark radiations in light of the Hubble tension
• Reconciling cosmic dipolar tensions with a gigaparsec void
• Testing Exponential $f(R)$ Gravity with CMB, DESI-DR2, and Supernova Data
• Asymmetry in galaxy spin directions: a fully reproducible experiment using HSC data
• Dark energy, spatial curvature, and star formation efficiency from JWST photometric and spectroscopic high-redshift galaxies
• Can cosmic rotation resolve the Hubble tension? Constraints from CMB and large-scale structure
• Dark matter fluid constraints from galaxy rotation curves
• A Review on Resolving the Hubble Tension via Late-Universe Physics
• Toward Cosmological Standard Timers in Primordial Black Hole Binaries
• Signature of $f\left(R\right)$ gravity via Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi inhomogeneous perturbations
• The dynamics of vacuum, gravity and matter: Implications on the fundamental constants
• Particle Production Scenario in an Algebraically Coupled Quintessence Field with a Dark Matter Fluid
• Gaussian discriminators between $\Lambda$CDM and wCDM cosmologies using expansion data
• Implications of single field inflation in general cosmological scenarios on the nature of dark energy given the swampland conjectures
• Dissecting the $H_0$ and $S_8$ tensions with Planck + BAO + supernova type Ia in multi-parameter cosmologies
• New tests of dark sector interactions from the full-shape galaxy power spectrum
• The Hubble Tension: Relativistic Dark Matter Production from Long-lived Particles
• Exploring the cosmic microwave background dipole direction using gamma-ray bursts
• Brans-Dicke-like field for co-varying $G$ and $c$: observational constraints
• The four-dimensional null energy condition as a swampland conjecture
• Revisiting the Hubble Tension with DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Observations and Machine Learning Methods
• Is the $\Lambda$CDM Model in Crisis?
• Perturbations In Some Dark Energy Models
• Testing the cosmic distance duality relation using model-independent approach
• Conditional variational autoencoders for cosmological model discrimination and anomaly detection in cosmic microwave background power spectra
• Evolution of Cosmological Total Energy Density and Transient Periods in Cosmology
• Phenomenological model explaining Hubble Tension origin
• Primordial observables of explicit diffeomorphism violation in gravity
• Revisiting the Matter Creation Process: Observational Constraints on Gravitationally Induced Dark Energy and the Hubble Tension
• Running Einstein Constant and a Possible Vacuum State of the Universe
• Constraints on polynomial inflation under power-law perturbations
• Resolving the Hubble Tension in the Early Dark Energy Framework with JWST and DESI Data
• Constraints on energy scales from dark matter decay in a gauged $B-L$ model
• Constraints on the Modified Emergent Dark Energy Model Using DESI DR2 BAO
• Explaining lepton-flavor non-universality and self-interacting dark matter with $L_{\mu }-L_{\tau }$
• A study of potential non-relativistic QED pairs in the Keldysh-Schwinger formalism
• Nature-inspired optimization, the Philippine Eagle, and cosmological parameter estimation
• How Holographic is the Dark Energy? A Spline Nodal reconstruction approach
• Yano-Schrödinger Hyperfluid: Cosmological Implications