Reconstructing the Hubble parameter with future Gravitational Wave missions using Machine Learning

Abstract

We study the prospects of Gaussian processes (GP), a machine learning (ML) algorithm, as a tool to reconstruct the Hubble parameter $H(z)$ with two upcoming gravitational wave missions, namely the evolved Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (eLISA) and the Einstein Telescope (ET). Assuming various background cosmological models, the Hubble parameter has been reconstructed in a non-parametric manner with the help of GP using realistically generated catalogs for each mission. The effects of early-time and late-time priors on the reconstruction of $H(z)$, and hence on the Hubble constant ($H_0$), have also been focused on separately. Our analysis reveals that GP is quite robust in reconstructing the expansion history of the Universe within the observational window of the specific missions under consideration. We further confirm that both eLISA and ET would be able to provide constraints on $H(z)$ and $H_0$ which would be competitive to those inferred from current datasets. In particular, we observe that an eLISA run of $\sim 10$-year duration with $\sim 80$ detected bright siren events would be able to constrain $H_0$ as good as a $\sim 3$-year ET run assuming $\sim 1000$ bright siren event detections. Further improvement in precision is expected for longer eLISA mission durations such as a $\sim 15$-year time-frame having $\sim 120$ events. Lastly, we discuss the possible role of these future gravitational wave missions in addressing the Hubble tension, for each model, on a case-by-case basis.

arXiv comment14 pages, 8 sets of figures, Accepted in ApJ

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