Unbiased Hubble constant estimation from binary neutron star mergers

Abstract

Gravitational wave (GW) observations of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers can be used to measure luminosity distances and hence, when coupled with estimates for the mergers' host redshifts, infer the Hubble constant, $H_0$. These observations are, however, affected by GW measurement noise, uncertainties in host redshifts and peculiar velocities, and are potentially biased by selection effects and the mis-specification of the cosmological model or the BNS population. The estimation of $H_0$ from samples of BNS mergers with optical counterparts is tested here by using a phenomenological model for the GW strains that captures both the data-driven event selection and the distance-inclination degeneracy, while being simple enough to facilitate large numbers of simulations. A rigorous Bayesian approach to analyzing the data from such simulated BNS merger samples is shown to yield results that are unbiased, have the appropriate uncertainties, and are robust to model mis-specification. Applying such methods to a sample of $N\simeq 50$ BNS merger events, as LIGO+Virgo could produce in the next $\sim 5$ years, should yield robust and accurate Hubble constant estimates that are precise to a level of $\sim 2$ km s${}^{-1}$ Mpc${}^{-1}$, sufficient to reliably resolve the current tension between local and cosmological measurements of $H_0$.

21 pages (including eight-page appendices); 9 figures. Matches version accepted by PRD

References in corpus (40)

• GW170817: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Neutron Star Inspiral
• GWTC-1: A Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog of Compact Binary Mergers Observed by LIGO and Virgo during the First and Second Observing Runs
• Large Magellanic Cloud Cepheid Standards Provide a 1% Foundation for the Determination of the Hubble Constant and Stronger Evidence for Physics Beyond LambdaCDM
• A gravitational-wave standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant
• Bilby: A user-friendly Bayesian inference library for gravitational-wave astronomy
• Early Dark Energy Can Resolve The Hubble Tension
• Robust parameter estimation for compact binaries with ground-based gravitational-wave observations using the LALInference software library
• Binary Black Hole Population Properties Inferred from the First and Second Observing Runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo
• The trouble with $H_0$
• Superluminal motion of a relativistic jet in the neutron star merger GW170817
• A 2 per cent Hubble constant measurement from standard sirens within 5 years
• Extracting distribution parameters from multiple uncertain observations with selection biases
• Early dark energy, the Hubble-parameter tension, and the string axiverse
• First measurement of the Hubble constant from a dark standard siren using the Dark Energy Survey galaxies and the LIGO/Virgo binary-black-hole merger GW170814
• PyCBC Inference: A Python-based parameter estimation toolkit for compact binary coalescence signals
• A standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant from GW170817 without the electromagnetic counterpart
• Sounds Discordant: Classical Distance Ladder & $\Lambda$CDM -based Determinations of the Cosmological Sound Horizon
• Prospects for resolving the Hubble constant tension with standard sirens
• Probing the interaction between dark matter and dark energy in the presence of massive neutrinos
• Cosmology with the lights off: Standard sirens in the Einstein Telescope era
• Modified gravitational-wave propagation and standard sirens
• Interacting dark energy with time varying equation of state and the $H_0$ tension
• Measuring the Hubble constant with Type Ia supernovae as near-infrared standard candles
• Observational constraints on one-parameter dynamical dark-energy parametrizations and the $H_0$ tension
• Calibration Uncertainty for Advanced LIGO's First and Second Observing Runs
• A blinded determination of $H_0$ from low-redshift Type Ia supernovae, calibrated by Cepheid variables
• Improved constraints on H0 from a combined analysis of gravitational-wave and electromagnetic emission from GW170817
• Measuring the Hubble constant with neutron star black hole mergers
• Sample variance in the local measurements of the Hubble constant
• Determining $H_0$ with Bayesian hyper-parameters
• The Advanced LIGO Photon Calibrators
• How the Dark Energy Can Reconcile \textit{Planck} with Local Determination of the Hubble Constant
• Light dark photon and fermionic dark radiation for the Hubble constant and the structure formation
• Measuring the Hubble constant: Gravitational wave observations meet galaxy clustering
• Primordial gravitational waves and the H0-tension problem
• $H_0$ Tension and the Phantom Regime: A Case Study In Terms of an Infrared $f(T)$ Gravity
• K-mouflage Imprints on Cosmological Observables and Data Constraints
• How does an incomplete sky coverage affect the Hubble Constant variance?
• Prospects of the local Hubble parameter measurement using gravitational waves from double neutron stars
• Testing averaged cosmology with type Ia supernovae and BAO data

Cited by in corpus (48)

• Cosmology Intertwined II: The Hubble Constant Tension
• Oscillating scalar fields and the Hubble tension: a resolution with novel signatures
• A gravitational-wave measurement of the Hubble constant following the second observing run of Advanced LIGO and Virgo
• A Future Percent-Level Measurement of the Hubble Expansion at Redshift 0.8 With Advanced LIGO
• Cosmological Inference using Gravitational Wave Standard Sirens: A Mock Data Challenge
• Accurate precision Cosmology with redshift unknown gravitational wave sources
• A statistical standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant from the LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave compact object merger GW190814 and Dark Energy Survey galaxies
• Localizing merging black holes with sub-arcsecond precision using gravitational-wave lensing
• Velocity correction for Hubble constant measurements from standard sirens
• The Hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy catalog approach for gravitational wave cosmology
• Cosmological constraints on late-universe decaying dark matter as a solution to the $H_0$ tension
• Standard Siren Speeds: Improving velocities in gravitational-wave measurements of $H_0$
• The Impact of Peculiar Velocities on the Estimation of the Hubble Constant from Gravitational Wave Standard Sirens
• Constraining the Hubble constant to a precision of about 1% using multi-band dark standard siren detections
• Systematic uncertainty of standard sirens from the viewing angle of binary neutron star inspirals
• Constraining the cosmological parameters using gravitational wave observations of massive black hole binaries and statistical redshift information
• Afterglow constraints on the viewing angle of binary neutron star mergers and determination of the Hubble constant
• Multi-messenger Detection Rates and distributions of Binary Neutron Star Mergers and Their Cosmological Implications
• Cosmology with Standard Sirens at Cosmic Noon
• Serendipitous Discoveries of Kilonovae in the LSST Main Survey: Maximising Detections of Sub-Threshold Gravitational Wave Events
• Prospects for Measuring the Hubble Constant with Neutron-Star-Black-Hole Mergers
• Cosmology Intertwined: A Review of the Particle Physics, Astrophysics, and Cosmology Associated with the Cosmological Tensions and Anomalies
• Constraining short gamma-ray burst jet properties with gravitational waves and gamma rays
• The Impact of Observing Strategy on Cosmological Constraints with LSST
• Probing gravity and growth of structure with gravitational waves and galaxies' peculiar velocity
• Debiasing Cosmic Gravitational Wave Sirens
• Characterizing the observation bias in gravitational-wave detections and finding structured population properties
• The Hubble constant tension with next-generation galaxy surveys
• A Measurement of the Hubble Constant using Gravitational Waves from the Binary Merger GW190814
• Modelling Populations of Kilonovae
• Does non-stationary noise in LIGO and Virgo affect the estimation of $H_0$?
• Unbiased likelihood-free inference of the Hubble constant from light standard sirens
• Using Gray Sirens to Resolve the Hubble-Lemaître Tension
• Thunder and Lightning: Using Neutron-Star Mergers as Simultaneous Standard Candles and Sirens to Measure Cosmological Parameters
• The potential role of binary neutron star merger afterglows in multimessenger cosmology
• Constraining properties of neutron star merger outflows with radio observations
• Debiasing Standard Siren Inference of the Hubble Constant with Marginal Neural Ratio Estimation
• Reconstructing the Hubble parameter with future Gravitational Wave missions using Machine Learning
• Possible Resolution of the Hubble Tension with Weyl Invariant Gravity
• Will Gravitational Wave Sirens Determine the Hubble Constant?
• Gravitational wave cosmology and astrophysics with large spectroscopic galaxy surveys
• Popsynth: A generic astrophysical population synthesis framework
• Constraining the host galaxy halos of massive black holes from LISA event rates
• Unveiling the Universe with Emerging Cosmological Probes
• The subtle statistics of the distance ladder: On the distance prior and selection effects
• Biases in velocity reconstruction: investigating the effects on growth rate and expansion measurements in the local universe
• Spatial Curvature and Large Scale Lorentz Violation
• Measuring Hubble Constant with Dark Neutron Star-Black Hole Mergers