Systematic uncertainty of standard sirens from the viewing angle of binary neutron star inspirals

Abstract

The independent measurement of Hubble constant with gravitational-wave standard sirens will potentially shed light on the tension between the local distance ladders and Planck experiments. Therefore, thorough understanding of the sources of systematic uncertainty for the standard siren method is crucial. In this paper, we focus on two scenarios that will potentially dominate the systematic uncertainty of standard sirens. First, simulations of electromagnetic counterparts of binary neutron star mergers suggest aspherical emissions, so the binaries available for the standard siren method can be selected by their viewing angles. This selection effect can lead to $\gtrsim 2\%$ bias in Hubble constant measurement even with mild selection. Second, if the binary viewing angles are constrained by the electromagnetic counterpart observations but the bias of the constraints is not controlled under $\sim 10^{\circ }$, the resulting systematic uncertainty in Hubble constant will be $>3\%$. In addition, we find that both of the systematics cannot be properly removed by the viewing angle measurement from gravitational-wave observations. Comparing to the known dominant systematic uncertainty for standard sirens, the $\le 2\%$ gravitational-wave calibration uncertainty, the effects from viewing angle appear to be more significant. Therefore, the systematic uncertainty from viewing angle might be a major challenge before the standard sirens can resolve the tension in Hubble constant, which is currently $\sim$9%.

arXiv commentAccepted version by Physical Review Letters

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