A Program for Multi-Messenger Standard Siren Cosmology in the Era of LIGO A+, Rubin Observatory, and Beyond

Abstract

The most promising variation of the standard siren technique combines gravitational-wave (GW) data for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers with redshift measurements enabled by their electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, to constrain cosmological parameters such as $H_0$, ${\Omega }_m$, and $w_0$. Here we evaluate the near- and long-term prospects of multi-messenger cosmology in the era of future GW observatories: Advanced LIGO Plus (A+, 2025), Voyager-like detectors (2030s), and Cosmic Explorer-like detectors (CE, 2035 and beyond). We show that the BNS horizon distance of $\approx 700$ Mpc for A+ is well-matched to the sensitivity of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (VRO) for kilonova detections. We find that one year of joint A+ and VRO observations will constrain the value of $H_0$ to percent-level precision, given a small investment of VRO time dedicated to target-of-opportunity GW follow-up. In the Voyager era, the BNS-kilonova observations begin to constrain ${\Omega }_m$ with an investment of a few percent of VRO time. With the larger BNS horizon distance in the Cosmic Explorer era, on-axis short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) and their afterglows (though accompanying only some of the GW-detected mergers) supplant kilonovae as the most promising counterparts for redshift identification. We show that five years of joint observations with Cosmic Explorer-like facilities and a next-generation gamma-ray satellite with localization capabilities similar to that presently possible with Swift could constrain both ${\Omega }_m$ and $w_0$ to $15-20\%$. We therefore advocate for a robust target-of-opportunity (ToO) program with VRO, and a wide-field gamma-ray satellite with improved sensitivity in the 2030s, to enable standard siren cosmology with next-generation gravitational wave facilities.

arXiv commentThe Astrophysical Journal Letters accepted version

References in corpus (74)

• emcee: The MCMC Hammer
• Planck 2015 results. XIII. Cosmological parameters
• GW170817: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Neutron Star Inspiral
• Cosmic Star Formation History
• Multi-messenger Observations of a Binary Neutron Star Merger
• Gravitational Waves and Gamma-rays from a Binary Neutron Star Merger: GW170817 and GRB 170817A
• LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products
• GWTC-1: A Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog of Compact Binary Mergers Observed by LIGO and Virgo during the First and Second Observing Runs
• Large Magellanic Cloud Cepheid Standards Provide a 1% Foundation for the Determination of the Hubble Constant and Stronger Evidence for Physics Beyond LambdaCDM
• An Ordinary Short Gamma-Ray Burst with Extraordinary Implications: Fermi-GBM Detection of GRB 170817A
• The DESI Experiment Part I: Science,Targeting, and Survey Design
• Exploring the Sensitivity of Next Generation Gravitational Wave Detectors
• A gravitational-wave standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant
• Electromagnetic Counterparts of Compact Object Mergers Powered by the Radioactive Decay of R-process Nuclei
• Swope Supernova Survey 2017a (SSS17a), the Optical Counterpart to a Gravitational Wave Source
• H0LiCOW XIII. A 2.4% measurement of $H_0$ from lensed quasars: $5.3\sigma$ tension between early and late-Universe probes
• Short-Duration Gamma-Ray Bursts
• Frequency-domain gravitational waves from non-precessing black-hole binaries. II. A phenomenological model for the advanced detector era
• The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. II. UV, Optical, and Near-IR Light Curves and Comparison to Kilonova Models
• Spectroscopic identification of r-process nucleosynthesis in a double neutron star merger
• INTEGRAL Detection of the First Prompt Gamma-Ray Signal Coincident with the Gravitational Wave Event GW170817
• The Carnegie-Chicago Hubble Program. VIII. An Independent Determination of the Hubble Constant Based on the Tip of the Red Giant Branch
• Constraining the Maximum Mass of Neutron Stars From Multi-Messenger Observations of GW170817
• Frequency-domain gravitational waves from non-precessing black-hole binaries. I. New numerical waveforms and anatomy of the signal
• Using gravitational-wave standard sirens
• The Hubble Hunter's Guide
• The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/Virgo GW170817. I. Dark Energy Camera Discovery of the Optical Counterpart
• KAGRA: 2.5 Generation Interferometric Gravitational Wave Detector
• What is the Most Promising Electromagnetic Counterpart of a Neutron Star Binary Merger?
• The Expansion of the Universe is Faster than Expected
• CMB-S4 Science Case, Reference Design, and Project Plan
• A 2 per cent Hubble constant measurement from standard sirens within 5 years
• Extracting distribution parameters from multiple uncertain observations with selection biases
• The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. V. Rising X-ray Emission from an Off-Axis Jet
• The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. VI. Radio Constraints on a Relativistic Jet and Predictions for Late-Time Emission from the Kilonova Ejecta
• Kilonova Light Curves from the Disk Wind Outflows of Compact Object Mergers
• The rate, luminosity function and time delay of non-Collapsar short GRBs
• First measurement of the Hubble constant from a dark standard siren using the Dark Energy Survey galaxies and the LIGO/Virgo binary-black-hole merger GW170814
• Determination of Dark Energy by the Einstein Telescope: Comparing with CMB, BAO and SNIa Observations
• A standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant from GW170817 without the electromagnetic counterpart
• Cosmography with the Einstein Telescope
• Prospects for resolving the Hubble constant tension with standard sirens
• The THESEUS space mission concept: science case, design and expected performances
• A Future Percent-Level Measurement of the Hubble Expansion at Redshift 0.8 With Advanced LIGO
• Estimating cosmological parameters by the simulated data of gravitational waves from the Einstein Telescope
• Characterization of systematic error in Advanced LIGO calibration
• The Multi-Messenger Matrix: the Future of Neutron Star Merger Constraints on the Nuclear Equation of State
• Distance measures in gravitational-wave astrophysics and cosmology
• A line-binned treatment of opacities for the spectra and light curves from neutron star mergers
• The Electromagnetic Counterpart of the Binary Neutron Star Merger LIGO/VIRGO GW170817. VIII. A Comparison to Cosmological Short-duration Gamma-ray Bursts
• Improved constraints on H0 from a combined analysis of gravitational-wave and electromagnetic emission from GW170817
• GROWTH on S190814bv: Deep Synoptic Limits on the Optical/Near-Infrared Counterpart to a Neutron Star-Black Hole Merger
• GRANDMA Observations of Advanced LIGO's and Advanced Virgo's Third Observational Campaign
• Follow-up of the Neutron Star Bearing Gravitational Wave Candidate Events S190425z and S190426c with MMT and SOAR
• The Diversity of Kilonova Emission in Short Gamma-Ray Bursts
• Observational constraints on the optical and near-infrared emission from the neutron star-black hole binary merger S190814bv
• Localizing compact binary inspirals on the sky using ground-based gravitational wave interferometers
• A comparison between short GRB afterglows and AT2017gfo: shedding light on kilonovae properties
• A luminosity distribution for kilonovae based on short gamma-ray burst afterglows
• Theoretical Models of Optical Transients. I. A Broad Exploration of the Duration-Luminosity Phase Space
• The Broad-band Counterpart of the Short GRB 200522A at $z=0.5536$: A Luminous Kilonova or a Collimated Outflow with a Reverse Shock?
• Forecast for cosmological parameter estimation with gravitational-wave standard siren observation from the Cosmic Explorer
• A Galaxy-Targeted Search for the Optical Counterpart of the Candidate NS-BH Merger S190814bv with Magellan
• A Comprehensive Study of Detectability and Contamination in Deep Rapid Optical Searches for Gravitational Wave Counterparts
• Inclination Dependence of Kilonova Light Curves from Globally Aspherical Geometries
• Systematic uncertainty of standard sirens from the viewing angle of binary neutron star inspirals
• LSST Target-of-Opportunity Observations of Gravitational Wave Events: Essential and Efficient
• A Deep CFHT Optical Search for a Counterpart to the Possible Neutron Star -- Black Hole Merger GW190814
• Do the Fermi Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor and Swift Burst Alert Telescope see the Same Short Gamma-Ray Bursts?
• Finding the One: Identifying the Host Galaxies of Gravitational-Wave Sources
• Facilitating follow-up of LIGO-Virgo events using rapid sky localization
• The SVOM gamma-ray burst mission
• A Standard Siren Cosmological Measurement from the Potential GW190521 Electromagnetic Counterpart ZTF19abanrhr
• Astro 2020 Science White Paper: Joint Gravitational Wave and Electromagnetic Astronomy with LIGO and LSST in the 2020's

Cited by in corpus (48)

• Cosmology with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna
• Cosmology in the dark: On the importance of source population models for gravitational-wave cosmology
• Constraints on Interacting Dark Energy Models from the DESI Baryon Acoustic Oscillation and DES Supernovae Data
• Spectral sirens: cosmology from the full mass distribution of compact binaries
• Forecast for cosmological parameter estimation with gravitational-wave standard sirens from the LISA-Taiji network
• Impact of Dynamical Tides on the Reconstruction of the Neutron Star Equation of State
• How can gravitational-wave standard sirens and 21 cm intensity mapping jointly provide a precise late-universe cosmological probe?
• The Taiji-TianQin-LISA network: Precisely measuring the Hubble constant using both bright and dark sirens
• Jet Launching from Binary Neutron Star Mergers: Incorporating Neutrino Transport and Magnetic Fields
• Synergy between CSST galaxy survey and gravitational-wave observation: Inferring the Hubble constant from dark standard sirens
• Cosmology with Standard Sirens at Cosmic Noon
• Prospects for measuring the Hubble constant and dark energy using gravitational-wave dark sirens with neutron star tidal deformation
• Impacts of gravitational-wave standard siren observations from Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer on weighing neutrinos in interacting dark energy models
• Prospects for probing the interaction between dark energy and dark matter using gravitational-wave dark sirens with neutron star tidal deformation
• Cosmology Intertwined: A Review of the Particle Physics, Astrophysics, and Cosmology Associated with the Cosmological Tensions and Anomalies
• A new way to explore cosmological tensions using gravitational waves and strong gravitational lensing
• Cosmography with next-generation gravitational wave detectors
• Joint constraints on cosmological parameters using future multi-band gravitational wave standard siren observations
• A forecast of using fast radio burst observations to constrain holographic dark energy
• Jet Launching from Merging Magnetized Binary Neutron Stars with Realistic Equations of State
• A comprehensive forecast for cosmological parameter estimation using joint observations of gravitational waves and short $\gamma$-ray bursts
• Cosmological model-independent measurement of cosmic curvature using distance sum rule with the help of gravitational waves
• Extragalactic Millimeter Transients in the Era of Next Generation CMB Surveys
• Interpolating Detailed Simulations of Kilonovae: Adaptive Learning and Parameter Inference Applications
• Using Gray Sirens to Resolve the Hubble-Lemaître Tension
• The Dark Side of Using Dark Sirens to Constrain the Hubble-Lemaître Constant
• The lure of sirens: joint distance and velocity measurements with third generation detectors
• Multimessenger astronomy with a kHz-band gravitational-wave observatory
• Standard siren cosmology in the era of the 2.5-generation ground-based gravitational wave detectors: bright and dark sirens of LIGO Voyager and NEMO
• Improving the Cosmological Constraints by Inferring the Formation Channel of Extreme-mass-ratio Inspirals
• Prospects for optical detections from binary neutron star mergers with the next-generation multi-messenger observatories
• A robust cosmic standard ruler from the cross-correlations of galaxies and dark sirens
• Rapid identification of time-frequency domain gravitational wave signals from binary black holes using deep learning
• A Standard Siren Cosmological Measurement from the Potential GW190521 Electromagnetic Counterpart ZTF19abanrhr
• Fundamental Physics and Cosmology with TianQin
• The GW-Universe Toolbox III: simulating joint observations of gravitational waves and gamma-ray bursts
• Multi-messenger observations in the Einstein Telescope era: binary neutron star and black hole - neutron star mergers
• Impact of weak lensing on bright standard siren analyses
• How will our knowledge of short gamma-ray bursts affect the distance measurement of binary neutron stars?
• Cosmology in the dark: How compact binaries formation impact the gravitational-waves cosmological measurements
• Multi-messenger standard-siren cosmology for third-generation gravitational-wave detectors: forecasts considering observations of gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae
• Probing Cosmology with Baryon Acoustic Oscillations using Gravitational Waves
• Perspectives for multi-messenger astronomy with the next generation of gravitational-wave detectors and high-energy satellites
• Search for exotic gravitational wave signals beyond general relativity using deep learning
• Prospects for joint multiband detection of intermediate-mass black holes by LGWA and the Einstein Telescope
• Uncertainty and bias of cosmology and astrophysical population model from statistical dark sirens
• Significant challenges for astrophysical inference with next-generation gravitational-wave observatories
• Influence of cosmic expansion on gravitational waveforms