Unbiased likelihood-free inference of the Hubble constant from light standard sirens

Abstract

Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers offer a promising path towards resolution of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) tension, provided their constraints are shown to be free from systematics such as the Malmquist bias. In the traditional Bayesian framework, accounting for selection effects in the likelihood requires calculation of the expected number (or fraction) of detections as a function of the parameters describing the population and cosmology; a potentially costly and/or inaccurate process. This calculation can, however, be bypassed completely by performing the inference in a framework in which the likelihood is never explicitly calculated, but instead fit using forward simulations of the data, which naturally include the selection. This is Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI). Here, we use density-estimation LFI, coupled to neural-network-based data compression, to infer $H_0$ from mock catalogues of binary neutron star mergers, given noisy redshift, distance and peculiar velocity estimates for each object. We demonstrate that LFI yields statistically unbiased estimates of $H_0$ in the presence of selection effects, with precision matching that of sampling the full Bayesian hierarchical model. Marginalizing over the bias increases the $H_0$ uncertainty by only $6\%$ for training sets consisting of $O(10^4)$ populations. The resulting LFI framework is applicable to population-level inference problems with selection effects across astrophysics.

arXiv comment19 pages, 8 figures, comments welcome

References in corpus (63)

• GW170817: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Neutron Star Inspiral
• Multi-messenger Observations of a Binary Neutron Star Merger
• GW170817: Measurements of Neutron Star Radii and Equation of State
• In the Realm of the Hubble tension $-$ a Review of Solutions
• Exploring the Sensitivity of Next Generation Gravitational Wave Detectors
• A gravitational-wave standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant
• Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe
• H0LiCOW XIII. A 2.4% measurement of $H_0$ from lensed quasars: $5.3\sigma$ tension between early and late-Universe probes
• Using gravitational-wave standard sirens
• Cosmic Distances Calibrated to 1% Precision with Gaia EDR3 Parallaxes and Hubble Space Telescope Photometry of 75 Milky Way Cepheids Confirm Tension with LambdaCDM
• The trouble with $H_0$
• Jerk, snap, and the cosmological equation of state
• Scientific Objectives of Einstein Telescope
• A 2 per cent Hubble constant measurement from standard sirens within 5 years
• Exploring short gamma-ray bursts as gravitational-wave standard sirens
• Calibration of the Tip of the Red Giant Branch (TRGB)
• Extracting distribution parameters from multiple uncertain observations with selection biases
• Deep Learning for Real-time Gravitational Wave Detection and Parameter Estimation: Results with Advanced LIGO Data
• H0LiCOW - IX. Cosmographic analysis of the doubly imaged quasar SDSS 1206+4332 and a new measurement of the Hubble constant
• Nonparametric constraints on neutron star matter with existing and upcoming gravitational wave and pulsar observations
• Short GRB and binary black hole standard sirens as a probe of dark energy
• Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: A Precise H0 Measurement from DES Y1, BAO, and D/H Data
• Measuring a cosmological distance-redshift relationship using only gravitational wave observations of binary neutron star coalescences
• Elucidating $\Lambda$CDM: Impact of Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Measurements on the Hubble Constant Discrepancy
• Confirmation of a Star Formation Bias in Type Ia Supernova Distances and its Effect on Measurement of the Hubble Constant
• Prospects for resolving the Hubble constant tension with standard sirens
• Fast likelihood-free cosmology with neural density estimators and active learning
• Combining Full-Shape and BAO Analyses of Galaxy Power Spectra: A 1.6% CMB-independent constraint on H0
• Cosmological Inference using Gravitational Wave Standard Sirens: A Mock Data Challenge
• It's Dust: Solving the Mysteries of the Intrinsic Scatter and Host-Galaxy Dependence of Standardized Type Ia Supernova Brightnesses
• Gravitational-wave parameter estimation with autoregressive neural network flows
• The mass distribution of Galactic double neutron stars
• Detectability of compact binary merger macronovae
• Massive optimal data compression and density estimation for scalable, likelihood-free inference in cosmology
• Strong Dependence of Type Ia Supernova Standardization on the Local Specific Star Formation Rate
• Characterization of systematic error in Advanced LIGO calibration
• Learning Bayesian posteriors with neural networks for gravitational-wave inference
• Should Type Ia Supernova Distances be Corrected for their Local Environments?
• Nuisance hardened data compression for fast likelihood-free inference
• Measuring the distance-redshift relation with the cross-correlation of gravitational wave standard sirens and galaxies
• Automatic physical inference with information maximising neural networks
• Accuracy Requirements for Empirically-Measured Selection Functions
• Measuring the Hubble constant with neutron star black hole mergers
• Accounting for Source Uncertainties in Analyses of Astronomical Survey Data
• Estimation of the Sensitive Volume for Gravitational-wave Source Populations Using Weighted Monte Carlo Integration
• Generalized massive optimal data compression
• Inferring the properties of a population of compact binaries in presence of selection effects
• Cosmological inference using only gravitational wave observations of binary neutron stars
• How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Datasets?
• Likelihood-free inference with emulator networks
• The trouble beyond $H_0$ and the new cosmic triangles
• Unbiased Hubble constant estimation from binary neutron star mergers
• Reconsidering the Effects of Local Star Formation On Type Ia Supernova Cosmology
• Systematic uncertainty of standard sirens from the viewing angle of binary neutron star inspirals
• LSST Target-of-Opportunity Observations of Gravitational Wave Events: Essential and Efficient
• Heavy double neutron stars: birth, mid-life and death
• Serendipitous Discoveries of Kilonovae in the LSST Main Survey: Maximising Detections of Sub-Threshold Gravitational Wave Events
• Prospects for Measuring the Hubble Constant with Neutron-Star-Black-Hole Mergers
• Determining the Hubble constant from gravitational wave observations of merging compact binaries
• The potential role of binary neutron star merger afterglows in multimessenger cosmology
• Prospects of the local Hubble parameter measurement using gravitational waves from double neutron stars
• Hubble without the Hubble: cosmology using advanced gravitational-wave detectors alone
• Characterizing the Sample Selection for Supernova Cosmology

Cited by in corpus (6)

• Challenges for $\Lambda$CDM: An update
• Forward modeling of galaxy populations for cosmological redshift distribution inference
• Characterizing the observation bias in gravitational-wave detections and finding structured population properties
• Fast and robust Bayesian Inference using Gaussian Processes with GPry
• Calibrating cosmological simulations with implicit likelihood inference using galaxy growth observables
• Likelihood-free Forward Modeling for Cluster Weak Lensing and Cosmology