TDCOSMO IV: Hierarchical time-delay cosmography -- joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

Abstract

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant $H_0=73.3_{-1.8}^{+1.7}$ km s${}^{-1}{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-1}$, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in $H_0$. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with flexible mass models that are maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on hydrodynamically simulated lenses. We apply the method to the TDCOSMO sample of 7 lenses (6 from H0LiCOW) and measure $H_0=74.5_{-6.1}^{+5.6}$ km s${}^{-1}{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-1}$. In order to further constrain the deflector mass profiles, we then add imaging and spectroscopy for 33 strong gravitational lenses from the SLACS sample. For 9 of the SLAC lenses we use resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measure $H_0=67.4_{-3.2}^{+4.1}$ km s${}^{-1}{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-1}$, assuming that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. While our new analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW, and thus their $H_0$ measurement relying on those, it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on $H_0$ derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data, chiefly spatially resolved kinematics of lens galaxies.

arXiv commentaccepted by A&A. Full analysis available at https://github.com/TDCOSMO/hierarchy_analysis_2020_public updated permanent analysis script links

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• Constraints on dark energy from TDCOSMO & SLACS lenses
• Chameleon Early Dark Energy and the Hubble Tension
• Climbing out of the shadows: building the distance ladder with black hole images
• HOLISMOKES -- XII. Time-delay Measurements of Strongly Lensed Type Ia Supernovae using a Long Short-Term Memory Network
• Detecting unresolved lensed SNe Ia in LSST using blended light curves
• Weak lensing of strong lensing: beyond the tidal regime
• Foreground biases in strong gravitational lensing
• One Extension to Explain Them All, One Scale-Invariant Spectrum to Test Them All, and in One Model Bind Them
• Forecasting cosmological parameter constraints using multiple sparsity measurements as tracers of the mass profiles of dark matter haloes
• Lens Modeling of STRIDES Strongly Lensed Quasars using Neural Posterior Estimation
• High-resolution imaging follow-up of doubly imaged quasars
• Challenges and Opportunities for time-delay cosmography with multi-messenger gravitational lensing
• Gravitational lens time-delay as a probe of a possible time variation of the fine-structure constant
• Estimating Hubble Constant with Gravitational Observations: A Concise Review
• Mass Reconstruction of Galaxy-scale Strong Gravitational Lenses Using a Broken Power-law Model
• A New Window on Dynamical Dark Energy: Combining DESI-DR2 BAO with future Gravitational Wave Observations
• Constraints on the Hubble and matter density parameters with and without modelling the CMB anisotropies
• Tilted non-spatially-flat inflation
• Elliptical multipoles for gravitational lenses
• A Hubble Constant Determination Through Quasar Time Delays and Type Ia Supernovae
• Measuring the Hubble constant through the galaxy pairwise peculiar velocity
• Dark Energy: is it `just' Einstein's Cosmological Constant Lambda?
• Testing the local supervoid solution to the Hubble tension with direct distance tracers
• DESI-253.2534+26.8843: A New Einstein Cross Spectroscopically Confirmed with VLT/MUSE and Modeled with GIGA-Lens
• GausSN: Bayesian Time-Delay Estimation for Strongly Lensed Supernovae
• The COSMOS-Web Lens Survey (COWLS) II: depth, resolution, and NIR coverage from JWST reveal 17 spectacular lenses
• Host group degeneracy in gravitational lensing time delay determination of $H_0$
• Simulation-guided galaxy evolution inference: A case study with strong lensing galaxies
• Solving the Hubble tension à la Ellis & Stoeger 1987
• The SLACS strong lens sample, debiased. II. Lensing-only constraints on the stellar IMF and dark matter contraction in early-type galaxies
• Determination of Hubble constant from Megamaser Cosmology Project using Profile Likelihood
• TDCOSMO: XX. WFI2033--4723, the First Quadruply-Imaged Quasar Modeled with JWST Imaging
• Peculiar velocity effects on the Hubble constant from time-delay cosmography
• TDCOSMO. XXIII. Measurement of the Hubble constant from the doubly lensed quasar HE1104-1805
• FBQ 0951+2635: time delay and structure of the main lensing galaxy
• HOLISMOKES -- XIV. Time-delay and differential dust extinction determination with lensed type II supernova color curves
• Measuring the gravitomagnetic distortion from rotating halos I: methods
• Searching for strong lensing by late-type galaxies in UNIONS
• Time delay estimation in unresolved lensed quasars
• Constraints on Multicomponent Dark Energy from Cosmological Observations
• A Geometric Probe of Cosmology -- II. Gravitational Lensing Time Delays and Quasar Reverberation Mapping Revisited
• Harnessing Unresolved Lensed Quasars: The Mathematical Foundation of the Fluctuation Curve
• The density profile of Milky Way dark matter halo constrained from the OGLE microlensing sky map
• The Case for Space: Estimating Precise Time Delays from Ground- and Space-Based Observations of Lensed Supernovae with Glimpse
• Nonlinear Matter Power Spectrum from relativistic $N$-body Simulations: ${\Lambda }_{\mathrm{s}}$CDM versus $\Lambda$CDM
• A Joint Analysis of Strong Lensing and Type Ia Supernovae to Determine the Hubble Constant
• Impact of Large-Scale Structure along Line-of-Sight on Time-Delay Cosmography
• Is there a tilt in the fundamental (hyper)plane?
• Time delay measurements with Broken Power Law model
• Comparing LambdaCDM, wCDM, and w0waCDM models with DESI DR2 BAO: Redshift-Resolved Diagnostics and the Role of rd
• Detection of Unresolved Strongly Lensed Supernovae with 7-Dimensional Telescope
• New Constraint of the Hubble Constant by Proper Motions of Radio Components Observed in AGN Twin-jets
• A Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis for Estimating the Hubble Constant via Time Delay Cosmography
• Time Delay Cosmography: Analysis of Quadruply Lensed QSO SDSSJ1433 from Wendelstein Observatory
• Structure-wide dark matter density depletion induced by local degeneracies
• The impact of ultraviolet suppression on the rates and properties of strongly lensed Type IIn supernovae detected by LSST
• TDCOSMO XXI. Accurate stellar velocity dispersions of the SL2S lens sample and the fundamental plane of the lensing mass
• Breaking the Mass-sheet Degeneracy in Time-delay Cosmology with Lensed and Unlensed Type Ia Supernovae
• Multi-messenger lensing time delay as a probe of the graviton mass
• JAXtronomy: A JAX port of lenstronomy
• Late-time cosmological constraints on three holographic dark energy models with DESI DR2 BAO and Type Ia supernovae
• HOLISMOKES -- XVIII. Cosmology with strongly lensed type II supernovae: Effects of instrumental setups on $H_0$
• The Optical Origin of the Mass-Sheet Transformation
• Caustic area biases and how to deal with them
• SHARP VIII: J0924+0219 lens mass distribution and time-delay prediction through adaptive-optics imaging