The Occurrence Rate of Small Planets around Small Stars

Abstract

We use the optical and near-infrared photometry from the Kepler Input Catalog to provide improved estimates of the stellar characteristics of the smallest stars in the Kepler target list. We find 3897 dwarfs with temperatures below 4000K, including 64 planet candidate host stars orbited by 95 transiting planet candidates. We refit the transit events in the Kepler light curves for these planet candidates and combine the revised planet/star radius ratios with our improved stellar radii to revise the radii of the planet candidates orbiting the cool target stars. We then compare the number of observed planet candidates to the number of stars around which such planets could have been detected in order to estimate the planet occurrence rate around cool stars. We find that the occurrence rate of 0.5-4 Earth radius planets with orbital periods shorter than 50 days is 0.90 (+0.04/-0.03) planets per star. The occurrence rate of Earth-size (0.5-1.4 Earth radius) planets is constant across the temperature range of our sample at 0.51 (+0.06/-0.05) Earth-size planets per star, but the occurrence of 1.4-4 Earth radius planets decreases significantly at cooler temperatures. Our sample includes 2 Earth-size planet candidates in the habitable zone, allowing us to estimate that the mean number of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone is 0.15 (+0.13/-0.06) planets per cool star. Our 95% confidence lower limit on the occurrence rate of Earth-size planets in the habitable zones of cool stars is 0.04 planets per star. With 95% confidence, the nearest transiting Earth-size planet in the habitable zone of a cool star is within 21 pc. Moreover, the nearest non-transiting planet in the habitable zone is within 5 pc with 95% confidence.

We corrected an error in the code that calculates the number of stars for which a given planet could have been detected. The stellar parameters, planet parameters, and fraction of stars with planets did not change significantly. However, our estimate of the occurrence rate of habitable-zone, Earth-sized planets increased. Accepted for publication in ApJ. Machine readable tables in right sidebar

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• Globular Clusters as Cradles of Life and Advanced Civilizations
• Transit and Radial Velocity Survey Efficiency Comparison for a Habitable Zone Earth
• Observational Signatures of Self-Destructive Civilisations
• M-Dwarf Fast Rotators and the Detection of Relatively Young Multiple M-Star Systems
• Scaling K2. II. Assembly of a Fully Automated C5 Planet Candidate Catalog Using EDI-Vetter
• The Gold Standard: Accurate Stellar and Planetary Parameters for Eight Kepler M dwarf Systems Enabled by Parallaxes
• Stellar & Planetary Parameters for K2's Late Type Dwarf Systems from C1 to C5
• Ground-based Optical Transmission Spectroscopy of the Nearby Terrestrial Exoplanet LTT 1445Ab
• Chemo-kinematic ages of eccentric-planet-hosting M dwarf stars
• On the Spin States of Habitable Zone Exoplanets Around M Dwarfs: The Effect of a Near-Resonant Companion
• A super-Earth orbiting the nearby M-dwarf GJ 536
• Possibilities for an Aerial Biosphere in Temperate Sub Neptune-Sized Exoplanet Atmospheres
• Modeling Indications of Technology in Planetary Transit Light Curves -- Dark-side illumination
• LAMOST Observations in 15 \textit{K}2 Campaigns: I. Low resolution spectra from LAMOST DR6
• An upper limit on the ratio between the Extreme Ultraviolet and the bolometric luminosities of stars hosting habitable planets
• In situ formation of hot Jupiters with companion super-Earths
• Towards Detection of Exoplanetary Rings Via Transit Photometry: Methodology and a Possible Candidate
• Determining Dust Properties in Protoplanetary Disks: SED-derived Masses and Settling With ALMA
• High-cadence spectroscopy of M-dwarfs - II. Searching for stellar pulsations with HARPS
• A Habitable-Zone Earth-Sized Planet Rescued from False Positive Status
• Joint Radial Velocity and Direct Imaging Planet Yield Calculations: I. Self-consistent Planet Populations
• The true stellar parameters of the Kepler target list
• K2-265 b: A Transiting Rocky Super-Earth
• Hubble Space Telescope astrometry of the closest brown dwarf binary system -- I. Overview and improved orbit
• The Stars Kepler Missed: Investigating the Kepler Target Selection Function Using Gaia DR2
• The Great Flare of 2021 November 19 on AD Leo. Simultaneous XMM-Newton and TESS observations
• A Recommendation Algorithm to Predict Giant Exoplanet Host Stars Using Stellar Elemental Abundances
• The Mt John University Observatory Search For Earth-mass Planets In The Habitable Zone Of Alpha Centauri
• Magnetic Inflation and Stellar Mass IV. Four Low-mass Kepler Eclipsing Binaries Consistent with Non-magnetic Stellar Evolutionary Models
• Chemical Properties of the Local Galactic Disk and Halo. I. Fundamental Properties of 1,544 Nearby, High Proper-Motion M dwarfs and subdwarfs
• The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs: Spectroscopic orbits of nine M-dwarf multiple systems, including two triples, two brown dwarf candidates, and one close M-dwarf-white dwarf binary
• An astrometric planetary companion candidate to the M9 Dwarf TVLM 513-46546
• A tale of two clusters: dynamical history determines disc survival in Tr14 and Tr16 in the Carina Nebula
• Sensitive Multi-beam Targeted SETI Observations towards 33 Exoplanet Systems with FAST
• The Planet Formation Potential Around a 45 Myr old Accreting M Dwarf
• TESS Habitable Zone Star Catalog
• Tidal Dissipation in Dual-Body, Highly Eccentric, and Non-synchronously Rotating Systems: Applications to Pluto-Charon and the Exoplanet TRAPPIST-1e
• Quantitative estimates of the surface habitability of Kepler-452b
• Measuring the Number of M-Dwarfs per M-Dwarf Using Kepler Eclipsing Binaries
• The Late-Type Extension to MoVeRS (LaTE-MoVeRS): Proper motion verified low-mass stars and brown dwarfs from SDSS, 2MASS, and WISE
• Quantifying the Influence of Jupiter on the Earth's Orbital Cycles
• Habitable planet formation around low-mass stars: Rapid accretion, rapid debris removal and the essential contribution of external giants
• Disk Masses and Dust Evolution of Protoplanetary Disks Around Brown Dwarfs
• Optical and near-infrared stellar activity characterization of the early M dwarf Gl~205 with SOPHIE and SPIRou
• Dynamical Packing in the Habitable Zone: The Case of Beta CVn
• HADES RV Programme with HARPS-N at TNG. X. The non-saturated regime of the stellar activity-rotation relationship for M-Dwarfs
• Migration and Growth of Protoplanetary Embryos III: Mass and Metallicity Dependence for FGKM main-sequence stars
• The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs. A super-Earth planet orbiting HD 79211 (GJ 338 B)
• The SNR of a Transit
• Global Analysis of the TRAPPIST Ultra-Cool Dwarf Transit Survey
• Planet gap opening across stellar masses
• Exoplanet Transits with Next-Generation Radio Telescopes
• New Red Jewels in Coma Berenices
• Planet occurrence rate density models including stellar effective temperature
• Higher Compact Multiple Occurrence Around Metal-Poor M-Dwarfs and Late K-Dwarfs
• It takes two planets in resonance to tango around K2-146
• The occurrence rate of exoplanets orbiting ultracool dwarfs as probed by K2
• HATS-13b and HATS-14b: two transiting hot Jupiters from the HATSouth survey
• Planetary candidates transiting cool dwarf stars from Campaigns 12 to 15 of K2
• The HADES RV Programme with HARPS-N at TNG XI. GJ 685 b: a warm super-Earth around an active M dwarf
• The LHS 1678 System: Two Earth-Sized Transiting Planets and an Astrometric Companion Orbiting an M Dwarf Near the Convective Boundary at 20 pc
• Multibeam Blind Search of Targeted SETI Observations toward 33 Exoplanet Systems with FAST
• Predicting the Yield of Small Transiting Exoplanets around Mid-M and Ultra-Cool Dwarfs in the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey
• Scaling K2. III. Comparable Planet Occurrence in the FGK Samples of Campaign 5 and Kepler
• On the steady state collisional evolution of debris disks around M dwarfs
• Complete X-ray census of Mdwarfs in the solar Neighborhood I. GJ 745 AB: Coronal-hole Stars in the 10 pc Sample
• Atmospheric Dynamics of a Near Tidally Locked Earth-Size Planet
• Biofluorescent Worlds II. Biological fluorescence induced by stellar UV flares, a new temporal biosignature
• On the radial velocity detection of additional planets in transiting, slowly rotating M-dwarf systems: the case of GJ 1132
• Motion Verified Red Stars (MoVeRS): A Catalog of Proper Motion Selected Low-mass Stars from WISE, SDSS, and 2MASS
• TASTE V. A new ground-based investigation of orbital decay in the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-12b
• On the abundance of extraterrestrial life after the Kepler mission
• The EBLM project -- IX. Five fully convective M-dwarfs, precisely measured with CHEOPS and TESS light curves
• A massive hot Jupiter orbiting a metal-rich early-M star discovered in the TESS full frame images
• Ejection of close-in super-Earths around low-mass stars in the giant impact stage
• A population-based Habitable Zone perspective
• Eta-Earth Revisited II: Deriving a Maximum Number of Earth-like Habitats in the Galactic Disk
• The TEMPO Survey I: Predicting Yields of the Transiting Exosatellites, Moons, and Planets from a 30-day Survey of Orion with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope
• Detecting exoplanets with FAST?
• A Comprehensive Characterization of the 70 Virginis Planetary System
• No Metallicity Correlation Associated with the Kepler Dichotomy
• Estimating $T_{\mathrm{eff}}$, radius and luminosity of M-dwarfs using high resolution optical and NIR spectral features
• Global Analysis of KOI-977: Spectroscopy, Asteroseismology, and Phase-curve Analysis
• In Situ Models for Planet Assembly around Cool stars
• The variability behavior of CoRoT M-giant Stars
• Valuing life detection missions
• Modeling the Protoplanetary Disks of Two Brown Dwarfs in the Taurus Molecular Cloud
• M dwarf search for pulsations within Kepler GO program
• TOI-4438 b: a transiting mini-Neptune amenable to atmospheric characterization
• A novel SETI strategy targeting the solar focal regions of the most nearby stars
• Probing TRAPPIST-1-like systems with K2
• HATS-50b through HATS-53b: four transiting hot Jupiters orbiting G-type stars discovered by the HATSouth survey
• The Demographics of Wide-Separation Planets
• Coagulation Calculations of Icy Planet Formation Around 0.1--0.5~\msun\ Stars: Super-Earths From Large Planetestimals
• A multi-planetary system orbiting the early-M dwarf TOI-1238
• Triaxial Deformation and Asynchronous Rotation of Rocky Planets in the Habitable Zone of Low-Mass Stars
• Radial velocity homogeneous analysis of M dwarfs observed with HARPS I. Exoplanet detection and candidates
• TOI-3785 b: A Low-Density Neptune Orbiting an M2-Dwarf Star
• M Dwarf Activity in the Pan-STARRS 1 Medium-Deep Survey: First Catalog and Rotation Periods
• Probing the Survival of Planetary Systems in Globular Clusters with Tidal Disruption Events
• Using Close White Dwarf + M Dwarf Stellar Pairs to Constrain the Flare Rates in Close Stellar Binaries
• VIBES: VIsual Binary Exoplanet survey with SPHERE Upper limits on wide S-planet and S-BD frequencies, triple system discovery, and astrometric confirmation of 20 stellar binaries and three triple systems
• M dwarfs in the b201 tile of the VVV survey: Colour-based Selection, Spectral Types and Light Curves
• A Method to Identify the Boundary Between Rocky and Gaseous Exoplanets from Tidal Theory and Transit Durations
• Vortex fiber nulling for exoplanet observations: conceptual design, theoretical performance, and initial scientific yield predictions
• Sensitivity Analyses of Exoplanet Occurrence Rates from Kepler and Gaia
• A Multi-Year Search For Transits Of Proxima Centauri. I: Light Curves Corresponding To Published Ephemerides
• Direct imaging of exoplanets in the habitable zone with adaptive optics
• Determination of Starspot Covering Fraction as a function of Stellar Age from Observational Data
• An SMA Continuum Survey of Circumstellar Disks in the Serpens Star-Forming Region
• The GAPS Programme at TNG -- XXIV. An eccentric Neptune-mass planet near the inner edge of the BD-11 4672 habitable zone
• Simulations of starspot anomalies within TESS exoplanetary transit light curves -- I. The detection limits of starspot anomalies in TESS light curves
• Collisional formation of massive exomoons of super-terrestrial exoplanets
• Searching for Extragalactic Exoplanetary Systems: the Curious Case of BD+20 2457
• Searching for planetary signals in Doppler time series: a performance evaluation of tools for periodograms analysis
• Prospects for detecting the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect of Earth-like planets: the test case of TRAPPIST-1b and c
• Double-lined M dwarf eclipsing binaries from Catalina Sky Survey and LAMOST
• Differences in radio emission from similar M dwarfs in the binary system Ross 867-8
• A Study of the Magnetic Activity and Variability of GJ 436
• Characterizing K2 Candidate Planetary Systems Orbiting Low-Mass Stars III: A High Mass & Low Envelope Fraction for the Warm Neptune K2-55b
• How far are Extraterrestrial Life and Intelligence after Kepler ?
• Polarimetric Detection of Exoplanets Transiting T- and L- Brown Dwarfs
• The independent discovery of planet candidates around low mass stars and astrophysical false positives from the first two TESS sectors
• Revising Properties of Planet-host Binary Systems II: Apparent Near-Earth Analog Planets in Binaries Are Often Sub-Neptunes
• TOI-4336 A b: A temperate sub-Neptune ripe for atmospheric characterization in a nearby triple M-dwarf system
• Estimating Planetary Mass with Deep Learning
• Characterization of M dwarfs Using Optical Mid-Resolution Spectra for Exploration of Small Exoplanets
• A hot mini-Neptune and a temperate, highly eccentric sub-Saturn around the bright K-dwarf TOI-2134
• Area Coverage of Expanding E.T. Signals in the Galaxy: SETI and Drake's N
• $\pi$ Earth: a 3.14-day Earth-sized Planet from $\text{K2}$'s Kitchen Served Warm by the SPECULOOS Team
• The Fermi Paradox revisited: Technosignatures and the Contact Era
• Fiber scrambling for high-resolution spectrographs. II. A double fiber scrambler for Keck Observatory
• Habitability in Brown Dwarf Systems
• Relative Occurrence Rate Between Hot and Cold Jupiters as an Indicator to Probe Planet Migration
• The Drake Equation as a Function of Spectral Type and Time
• Catching the wisps: Stellar mass-loss limits from low-frequency radio observations
• Characterisation of close visual binaries from the AstraLux Large M Dwarf Survey
• The Bi-O-edge wavefront sensor: How Foucault-knife-edge variants can boost eXtreme Adaptive Optics
• The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs. A sub-Neptunian mass planet in the habitable zone of HN Lib
• The GALAH Survey: Improving our understanding of confirmed and candidate planetary systems with large stellar surveys
• Prospects for detecting the astrometric signature of Barnard's Star b
• Modal noise mitigation for high-precision spectroscopy using a photonic reformatter
• Simulations of starspot anomalies within TESS exoplanetary transit light curves -- II
• HADES RV programme with HARPS-N at TNG XIV. A candidate super-Earth orbiting the M-dwarf GJ 9689 with a period close to half the stellar rotation period
• Gl 725A b: a potential super-Earth detected with SOPHIE and SPIRou in an M dwarf binary system at 3.5 pc
• NIRPS and TESS reveal a peculiar system around the M dwarf TOI-756: A transiting sub-Neptune and a cold eccentric giant
• Small and Close-In Planets are Uncommon Around A-type Stars
• Characterization of Low Mass K2 Planet Hosts Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy
• Orbital structure of planetary systems formed by giant impacts: stellar mass dependence
• M dwarf stars in the light of (future) exoplanet searches
• The GAPS programme at TNG XLIII. A massive brown dwarf orbiting the active M dwarf TOI-5375
• Obliquities of Exoplanet Host Stars from Precise Distances and Stellar Angular Diameters
• Galactic Effects on Habitability
• Using Kepler Candidates to Examine the Properties of Habitable Zone Exoplanets
• A Double-lined M-dwarf Eclipsing Binary from CSSxSDSS
• Testing Model Atmospheres for Young Very Low Mass Stars and Brown Dwarfs in the Infrared: Evidence for Significantly Underestimated Dust Opacities
• Planetary host stars: Evaluating uncertainties in ultra-cool model atmospheres
• Demography of galactic technosignatures
• M Subdwarf Research III. Spectroscopic Diagnostics for Breaking Parameter Degeneracy
• ACRONYM IV: Three New, Young, Low-mass Spectroscopic Binaries
• TOI-2458 b: A mini-Neptune consistent with in situ hot Jupiter formation
• Attaining Doppler Precision of 10 cm/s with a Lock-In Amplified Spectrometer
• M dwarf spectral indices at moderate resolution: accurate $T_{\mathrm{eff}}$ and [Fe/H] for 178 southern stars
• Observability of ultraviolet N I lines in the atmosphere of transiting Earth-like planets
• Characterizing planetary systems with SPIRou: Detection of a sub-Neptune in a 6-day period orbit around the M dwarf Gl 410
• Temperate super-Earths/mini-Neptunes around M/K dwarfs Consist of 2 Populations Distinguished by Their Atmospheres
• Characterising Young Visual M-dwarf Binaries with Near-Infrared Integral Field Spectra
• Is the high-energy environment of K2-18b special?
• SDSSJ1156-0207: A 0.54 M_sun + 0.19 M_sun Double-lined M Dwarf Eclipsing Binary System
• Formation of super-Earths in icy dead zones around low-mass stars
• Activity of low mass stars in the light of spot signature in the Fourier domain
• Radial velocity homogeneous analysis of M dwarfs observed with HARPS. II. Detection limits and planetary occurrence statistics
• The contribution of the major planet search surveys to EChO target selection
• Generation of an optimal target list for the Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory (EChO)
• The Occurrence-weighted Median Planets Discovered by Transit Surveys Orbiting Solar-type Stars and Their Implications for Planet Formation and Evolution
• Modern Earth-like Chemical Disequilibrium Biosignatures Are Challenging To Constrain Through Spectroscopic Retrievals
• Time-resolved X-ray spectra of Proxima Centauri as seen by XMM-Newton
• Disentangling Atmospheric Compositions of K2-18 b with Next Generation Facilities
• NGTS-EB-8: A double-lined eclipsing M+M binary discovered by citizen scientists
• Modelling the Milky Way's exoplanet population based on cosmological galaxy simulations
• Variations in the Radius Distribution of Single- and Compact Multiple-transiting Planets
• Densities of small planets around the M dwarfs TOI-4336 A and TOI-4342 with ESPRESSO: Three sub-Neptunes, one super-Earth, and a Neptune-mass candidate
• Stellar flare study of nearby young moving group members with TESS Data
• Precise Near-Infrared Radial Velocities
• The Perkins INfrared Exosatellite Survey (PINES) I. Survey Overview, Reduction Pipeline, and Early Results
• TOI-1201 b: A mini-Neptune transiting a bright and moderately young M dwarf
• Dust-driven vortex cascades originating at water snow regions: A pathway to planetesimal formation
• Hidden Gems in TESS: sherlock finds two new rocky planets around nearby M dwarfs
• The Observational Effects and Signatures of Tidally Distorted Solid Exoplanets