Simulating the Exoplanet Yield of a Space-based MIR Interferometer Based on Kepler Statistics

Abstract

Aims: We predict the exoplanet yield of a space-based mid-infrared nulling interferometer using Monte Carlo simulations. We quantify the number and properties of detectable exoplanets and identify those target stars that have the highest or most complete detection rate. We investigate how changes in the underlying technical assumptions and uncertainties in the underlying planet population impact the scientific return. Methods: We simulated $2^{\prime }000$ exoplanetary systems, based on planet occurrence statistics from Kepler with randomly orientated orbits and uniformly distributed albedos around each of $326$ nearby ($d<20\text{pc}$) stars. Assuming thermal equilibrium and blackbody emission, together with the limiting spatial resolution and sensitivity of our simulated instrument in the three specific bands $5.6$, $10.0$, and $15.0\mu \text{m}$, we quantified the number of detectable exoplanets as a function of their radii and equilibrium temperatures. Results: Approximately $\sim 315_{-77}^{+113}$ exoplanets, with radii $0.5R_{\text{Earth}}\le R_{\text{p}}\le 6R_{\text{Earth}}$, were detected in at least one band and half were detected in all three bands during $\sim 0.52$ years of mission time assuming throughputs $3.5$ times worse than those for the James Webb Space Telescope and $\sim 40\%$ overheads. Accounting for stellar leakage and (unknown) exozodiacal light, the discovery phase of the mission very likely requires $2$ - $3$ years in total. Roughly $85$ planets could be habitable ($0.5R_{\text{Earth}}\le R_{\text{p}}\le 1.75R_{\text{Earth}}$ and $200\text{K}\le T_{\text{eq}}\le 450\text{K}$) and are prime targets for spectroscopic observations in a second mission phase.

14 pages, 9 figures, published by A&A

References in corpus (13)

• Seven temperate terrestrial planets around the nearby ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1
• Most 1.6 Earth-Radius Planets are not Rocky
• A stellar-mass-dependent drop in planet occurrence rates
• Combining high-dispersion spectroscopy (HDS) with high contrast imaging (HCI): Probing rocky planets around our nearest neighbors
• Maximizing the ExoEarth Candidate Yield from a Future Direct Imaging Mission
• A Statistical Reconstruction of the Planet Population Around Kepler Solar-Type Stars
• Extrasolar planets and brown dwarfs around A-F type stars VI. High precision RV survey of early type dwarfs with HARPS
• Direct detection of exoplanets in the 3 -- 10 micron range with E-ELT/METIS
• Two massive rocky planets transiting a K-dwarf 6.5 parsecs away
• Periodic accretion from a circumbinary disk in the young binary UZ Tau E
• On the Likelihood of Planet Formation in Close Binaries
• The dispersal of protoplanetary disks around binary stars
• Characterizing K2 Candidate Planetary Systems Orbiting Low-Mass Stars I: Classifying Low-mass Host Stars Observed During Campaigns 1-7

Cited by in corpus (1)

• Kernel phase imaging with VLT/NACO: high-contrast detection of new candidate low-mass stellar companions at the diffraction limit