Prevalence of Earth-size planets orbiting Sun-like stars

Abstract

Determining whether Earth-like planets are common or rare looms as a touchstone in the question of life in the universe. We searched for Earth-size planets that cross in front of their host stars by examining the brightness measurements of 42,000 stars from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Kepler mission. We found 603 planets, including 10 that are Earth size (1-2 Earth-radii) and receive comparable levels of stellar energy to that of Earth (within a factor of four). We account for Kepler's imperfect detectability of such planets by injecting synthetic planet-caused dimmings into the Kepler brightness measurements and recording the fraction detected. We find that $11\pm 4$ of Sun-like stars harbor an Earth-size planet receiving between one and four times the stellar intensity as Earth. We also find that the occurrence of Earth-size planets is constant with increasing orbital period (P), within equal intervals of logP up to $\sim 200$ d. Extrapolating, one finds $5.7_{-2.2}^{+1.7}$ of Sun-like stars harbor an Earth-size planet with orbital periods of 200-400 d.

Main text: 6 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. Supporting information: 54 pages, 17 pages, 3 tables. Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences available at http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1319909110

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• Super-Earths and sub-Neptunes are Insensitive to Stellar Metallicity
• Four Jovian planets around low-luminosity giant stars observed by the EXPRESS and PPPS
• Magellan/PFS Radial Velocities of GJ 9827, a late K dwarf at 30 pc with Three Transiting Super-Earths
• HATS-13b and HATS-14b: two transiting hot Jupiters from the HATSouth survey
• A Catalog of Stellar Evolution Profiles and the Effects of Variable Composition on Habitable Systems
• Planet occurrence rate density models including stellar effective temperature
• The OGLE-III planet detection efficiency from six years of microlensing observations (2003 to 2008)
• Growth and evolution of satellites in a Jovian massive disc
• It takes two planets in resonance to tango around K2-146
• Predicting multiple planet stability and habitable zone companions in the TESS era
• Multibeam Blind Search of Targeted SETI Observations toward 33 Exoplanet Systems with FAST
• Comparative Climates of TRAPPIST-1 planetary system: results from a simple climate-vegetation model
• In Search of the Edge: A Bayesian Exploration of the Detectability of Red Edges in Exoplanet Reflection Spectra
• A Mini-Neptune Orbiting the Metal-poor K Dwarf BD+29 2654
• Scaling K2. III. Comparable Planet Occurrence in the FGK Samples of Campaign 5 and Kepler
• Catalog of New K2 Exoplanet Candidates from Citizen Scientists
• A population-based Habitable Zone perspective
• Dynamical Evolution of Closely Packed Multiple Planetary Systems Subject to Atmospheric Mass-Loss
• A massive hot Jupiter orbiting a metal-rich early-M star discovered in the TESS full frame images
• Gap opening by planets in discs with magnetised winds
• Atmospheric dynamics of temperate sub-Neptunes. Part I: dry dynamics
• Running The Gauntlet -- Survival of Small Circumbinary Planets Migrating Through Destabilising Resonances
• On the abundance of extraterrestrial life after the Kepler mission
• Interstellar communication network. I. Overview and assumptions
• Liverpool Telescope 2: a new robotic facility for rapid transient follow-up
• The Impact of the Temporal Distribution of Communicating Civilizations on their Detectability
• Eta-Earth Revisited II: Deriving a Maximum Number of Earth-like Habitats in the Galactic Disk
• Trapping (sub-)Neptunes similar to TOI-216b at the inner disk rim: Implications for the disk viscosity and the Neptunian desert
• A Comprehensive Characterization of the 70 Virginis Planetary System
• Effects of XUV radiation on circumbinary planets
• Survival Function Analysis of Planet Size Distribution with GAIA Data Release 2 Updates
• The K2 M67 Study: Establishing the Limits of Stellar Rotation Period Measurements in M67 with K2 Campaign 5 Data
• A Flexible Bayesian Framework for Assessing Habitability with Joint Observational and Model Constraints
• The Demographics of Exoplanets
• Kepler Transit Depths Contaminated by a Phantom Star
• Sculpting the circumbinary planet size distribution through resonant interactions with companion planets
• Interstellar communication. X. The colors of optical SETI
• Another super-dense sub-Neptune in K2-182 b and refined mass measurements for K2-199 b and c
• Synergies between Asteroseismology and Exoplanetary Science
• Minimal conditions for survival of technological civilizations in the face of stellar evolution
• OGLE-2015-BLG-1670Lb: A Cold Neptune beyond the Snow Line in the Provisional WFIRST Microlensing Survey Field
• The growth of super-Earths: the importance of a self-consistent treatment of disc structures and pebble accretion
• The Demographics of Wide-Separation Planets
• Dust-Gas Coupling in Turbulence- and MHD Wind-Driven Protoplanetary Disks: Implications for Rocky Planet Formation
• K2-138 g: Spitzer Spots a Sixth Planet for the Citizen Science System
• A Distinct Population of Small Planets: Sub-Earths
• Transits Probabilities Around Hypervelocity and Runaway Stars
• Quantifying the information impact of future searches for exoplanetary biosignatures
• Moons Are Planets: Scientific Usefulness Versus Cultural Teleology in the Taxonomy of Planetary Science
• Exoplanets and SETI
• The K2-ESPRINT Project VI: K2-105 b, a Hot-Neptune around a Metal-rich G-dwarf
• Probing the Survival of Planetary Systems in Globular Clusters with Tidal Disruption Events
• Dynamical rearrangement of super-Earths during disk dispersal II. Assessment of the magnetospheric rebound model for planet formation scenarios
• Sensitivity Analyses of Exoplanet Occurrence Rates from Kepler and Gaia
• A Framework for Relative Biosignature Yields from Future Direct Imaging Missions
• On the origin of the eccentricity dichotomy displayed by compact super-Earths: dynamical heating by cold giants
• Characterisation of TOI-406 as showcase of the THIRSTEE program: A 2-planet system straddling the M-dwarf density gap
• The Occurrence of Earth-Like Planets Around Other Stars
• Characterizing K2 Candidate Planetary Systems Orbiting Low-Mass Stars III: A High Mass & Low Envelope Fraction for the Warm Neptune K2-55b
• Assessing the Interior Structure of Terrestrial Exoplanets with Implications for Habitability
• The Abundance of Belatedly Habitable Planets and Ambiguities in Definitions of the Continuously Habitable Zone
• The Size Distribution of Inhabited Planets
• The California Legacy Survey II. Occurrence of Giant Planets Beyond the Ice line
• On planetary systems as ordered sequences
• How far are Extraterrestrial Life and Intelligence after Kepler ?
• Gravitational Microlensing Events as a Target for SETI project
• Redefining interiors and envelopes: hydrogen-silicate miscibility and its consequences for the structure and evolution of sub-Neptunes
• The Habitability of Large Elliptical Galaxies
• Unveiling the Planet Population at Birth
• Pursuing Truth: Improving Retrievals on Mid-Infrared Exo-Earth Spectra with Physically Motivated Water Abundance Profiles and Cloud Models
• Revising Properties of Planet-host Binary Systems II: Apparent Near-Earth Analog Planets in Binaries Are Often Sub-Neptunes
• Three direct imaging epochs could constrain the orbit of Earth 2.0 inside the habitable zone
• Imaging the Dusty Substructures due to Terrestrial Planets in Planet-forming Disks with ALMA and the Next Generation Very Large Array
• Searching for Biosignatures in Exoplanetary Impact Ejecta
• Area Coverage of Expanding E.T. Signals in the Galaxy: SETI and Drake's N
• Quantifying the Classification of Exoplanets: in Search for the Right Habitability Metric
• The Drake Equation as a Function of Spectral Type and Time
• Panoramic optical and near-infrared SETI instrument: optical and structural design concepts
• Effect of vegetation on the temperatures of Trappist-1 planets
• Substructures in protoplanetary disks imprinted by compact planetary systems
• Distributions of Long-Lived Radioactive Nuclei Provided by Star Forming Environments
• Water-Cooled (sub)-Neptunes Get Better Gas Mileage
• Assessing the spin-orbit obliquity of low-mass planets in the breaking the chain formation model: A story of misalignment
• The Log Log Prior for the Frequency of Extraterrestrial Intelligences
• Can Rocky Exoplanets with Rings Pose as Sub-Neptunes?
• Planet Occurrence: Doppler and Transit Surveys
• Setting the Stage for Habitable Planets
• Forming rocky exoplanets around K-dwarf stars
• Kepler-102: Masses and Compositions for a Super-Earth and Sub-Neptune Orbiting an Active Star
• Small and Close-In Planets are Uncommon Around A-type Stars
• Searching the Entirety of Kepler Data. I. 17 New Planet Candidates Including 1 Habitable Zone World
• Coupled Thermal-Chemical Evolution Models of Sub-Neptunes Reveal Atmospheric Signatures of Their Formation Location
• NIRPS and TESS reveal a peculiar system around the M dwarf TOI-756: A transiting sub-Neptune and a cold eccentric giant
• A super-Earth and a mini-Neptune around Kepler-59
• An innovative integral field unit upgrade with 3D-printed micro-lenses for the RHEA at Subaru
• Using Kepler Candidates to Examine the Properties of Habitable Zone Exoplanets
• Combining Photometry and Astrometry to Improve Orbit Retrieval of Directly Imaged Exoplanets
• Scaling K2 VIII: Short-Period Sub-Neptune Occurrence Rates Peak Around Early-Type M Dwarfs
• Planets similar in size are often dissimilar in interior
• Demography of galactic technosignatures
• Galactic Effects on Habitability
• Diversities and similarities exhibited by multi-planetary systems and their architectures: I. Orbital spacings
• Dynamical Architectures of S-type Transiting Planets in Binaries II: A Dichotomy in Orbital Alignment of Small Planets in Close Binary Systems
• Close-in compact super-Earth systems emerging from resonant chains: slow destabilization by unseen remnants of formation
• Attaining Doppler Precision of 10 cm/s with a Lock-In Amplified Spectrometer
• TOI-2458 b: A mini-Neptune consistent with in situ hot Jupiter formation
• Takeout and Delivery: Erasing the Dusty Signature of Late-stage Terrestrial Planet Formation
• Diversity of Exoplanets
• Dual-Backend Multibeam Position Switching Targeted SETI Observations toward Nearby Active Planet-Hosting Systems with FAST
• Astrometric study of Gaia DR2 stars for interstellar communication
• The Age Distribution of Potential Intelligent Life in the Milky Way
• Maps and Masses of Transiting Exoplanets: Towards New Insights into Atmospheric and Interior Properties of Planets
• Mass Upper Bounds for Over 50 Kepler Planets Using Low-S/N Transit Timing Variations
• Communicating astrobiology and the search for life elsewhere: speculations and promises of a developing scientific field in newspapers, press releases and papers
• A transiting rocky super-Earth and a non-transiting sub-Neptune orbiting the M dwarf TOI-771
• Halting Migration in Magnetospherically Sculpted Protoplanetary Disks
• The DRAKE mission: finding the frequency of life in the Cosmos
• Self Gravitating Incompressible Fluid in Two Dimensions
• Effects of Self-gravity on Mass-loss of the Post-impact Super-Earths
• Modern Earth-like Chemical Disequilibrium Biosignatures Are Challenging To Constrain Through Spectroscopic Retrievals
• Radius and mass distribution of ultra-short period planets
• Scaling K2. V. Statistical Validation of 60 New Exoplanets From K2 Campaigns 2-18
• The Mass Budgets and Spatial Scales of Exoplanet Systems and Protoplanetary Disks
• On the Ordering of Exoplanet Systems
• Continuous Habitable Zones: Using Bayesian Methods to Prioritize Characterization of Potentially Habitable Worlds
• On the Habitability of Our Universe
• $\text{Exoformer}$: Accelerating Bayesian atmospheric retrievals with transformer neural networks
• FlowSN: Neural Simulation-Based Inference under Realistic Selection Effects applied to Supernova Cosmology
• Exploring Long-period Architectures: Four New Planet Candidates from Kepler with Periods >342 days
• Comprehensive Parameter Determination of Exoplanet through Asteroseismic Host Star Constraints
• Chemical diversity of the atmospheres and interiors of sub-Neptunes: a case study of GJ 436 b
• Potential Habitability as a Stellar Property: Effects of Model Uncertainties and Measurement Precision
• The VLA and High-Frequency SETI: Expanding the Search for Life
• The California Legacy Survey III. On The Shoulders of (Some) Giants: The Relationship between Inner Small Planets and Outer Massive Planets
• Sibling Sub-Neptunes Around Sibling M Dwarfs: TOI-521 and TOI-912
• Percolation of 'Civilisation' in a Homogeneous Isotropic Universe
• Exoplanets through extreme optics: from PLATO to SHARK-NIR
• SUPERSHARP - Segmented Unfolding Primary for Exoplanet Research via Spectroscopic High Angular Resolution Photography