Solar cycle prediction

Abstract

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. In their overall performance during the course of the last few solar cycles, precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is the polar field precursor. Nevertheless, some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts are quickly coming into their own, and, despite not having a long proven record, their predictions are received with increasing confidence by the community.

96 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables. Revised edition of 2010 living review arXiv:1012.5513, in press

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Cited by in corpus (59)

• Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24-25 in Perspective
• Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude
• Re-calibration of the Sunspot Number: Status Report
• Hemispheric sunspot numbers 1874--2020
• Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for Parker Solar Probe in situ observations
• Models for the long-term variations of solar activity
• Long-term modulation of solar cycles
• Evolution of solar and stellar dynamo theory
• Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions
• Mean field models of flux transport dynamo and meridional circulation in the Sun and stars
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• How good is the bipolar approximation of active regions for surface flux transport?
• Monitoring the large-scale magnetic field of AD~Leo with SPIRou, ESPaDOnS and Narval. Toward a magnetic polarity reversal?
• Sunspot tilt angles revisited: Dependence on the solar cycle strength
• Linking chromospheric activity and magnetic field properties for late-type dwarf stars
• a dynamo-based prediction of solar cycle 25
• Comparison of physics-based prediction models of solar cycle 25
• Physical link of the polar field build-up with the Waldmeier effect broadens the scope of early solar cycle prediction: Cycle 25 is likely to be slightly stronger than Cycle 24
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• Activity Complexes and A Prominent Poleward Surge During Solar Cycle 24
• Role of observable nonlinearities in solar cycle modulation
• A prediction for the 25th solar cycle maximum amplitude
• Medium-term predictions of F10.7 and F30 cm solar radio flux with the adaptive Kalman filter
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• Towards a live homogeneous database of solar active regions based on SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI synoptic magnetograms. I. Automatic detection and calibration
• Dynamo Model for North-South Asymmetry of Solar Activity
• Supercriticality of the dynamo limits the memory of the polar field to one cycle
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• Stephan Prantner's Sunspot Observations during the Dalton Minimum
• Algebraic quantification of an active region's contribution to the solar cycle
• Variation in solar differential rotation and activity in the period 1964-2016 determined by the Kanzelhöhe data set
• Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25
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• Maximal growth rate of the ascending phase of a sunspot cycle for predicting its amplitude
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• Observed Joys law of Bipolar Magnetic Region tilts at the emergence supports the thin flux tube model
• Effects of Observational Data Shortage on Accuracy of Global Solar Activity Forecast
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• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives
• Random walk with multiple memory channels: a new paradigm
• Prediction of the Solar Polar Fields in 2026: An Unusually Weak Level Across the Last Five Solar Cycles
• Forecasting Thermospheric Density with Transformers for Multi-Satellite Orbit Management
• Effect of Nonlinear Surface Inflows into Activity Belts on Solar Cycle Modulation
• Low-Latitude Sunspot Group Tilt Angles in 15-24 Activity Cycles
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• A Remarkably Accurate Predictor of Sunspot Cycle Amplitude