Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection versus Diffusion Dominated Solar Convection Zones

Abstract

The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the so-called Babcock-Leighton models of the solar cycle with spatially segregated source regions for the alpha and omega effects, play a crucial rule in this predictability. Through dynamo simulations with such a model, we study the physical basis of solar cycle predictions by examining two contrasting regimes, one dominated by diffusive magnetic flux transport in the solar convection zone, the other dominated by advective flux transport by meridional circulation. Our analysis shows that diffusion plays an important role in flux transport, even when the solar cycle period is governed by the meridional flow speed. We further examine the persistence of memory of past cycles in the advection and diffusion dominated regimes through stochastically forced dynamo simulations. We find that in the advection-dominated regime, this memory persists for up to three cycles, whereas in the diffusion-dominated regime, this memory persists for mainly one cycle. This indicates that solar cycle predictions based on these two different regimes would have to rely on fundamentally different inputs - which may be the cause of conflicting predictions. Our simulations also show that the observed solar cycle amplitude-period relationship arises more naturally in the diffusion dominated regime, thereby supporting those dynamo models in which diffusive flux transport plays a dominant role in the solar convection zone.

arXiv comment35 pages, 12 figures, submitted to ApJ

References in corpus (9)

• Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model
• Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
• Full--Sphere Simulations of a Circulation--Dominated Solar Dynamo: Exploring the Parity Issue
• Solar cycle prediction using precursors and flux transport models
• Towards A Mean-Field Formulation Of The Babcock-Leighton Type Solar Dynamo. I. Alpha Coefficient Versus Durney's Double Ring Approach
• Parity properties of an advection-dominated solar $α^2\Om$-dynamo
• On Predicting the Solar Cycle using Mean-Field Models
• On the Connection between Mean Field Dynamo Theory and Flux Tubes
• Does the butterfly diagram indicate asolar flux-transport dynamo?

Cited by in corpus (100)

• The Solar Cycle
• Solar cycle prediction
• Magnetic Cycles in a Convective Dynamo Simulation of a Young Solar-type Star
• Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions
• Advancements in the ADAPT Photospheric Flux Transport Model
• Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies
• Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24-25 in Perspective
• Meridional Circulation in Solar and Stellar Convection Zones
• The unusual minimum of sunspot cycle 23 a consequence of Sun's meridional plasma flow variations
• Solar Magnetic Field Reversals and the Role of Dynamo Families
• Solar Cycle Prediction
• Surface flux transport modeling for solar cycles 15--21: effects of cycle-dependent tilt angles of sunspot groups
• Is a deep one-cell meridional circulation essential for the flux transport Solar Dynamo?
• A Solar Dynamo Model Driven by Mean-Field Alpha and Babcock-Leighton Sources: Fluctuations, Grand-Minima-Maxima and Hemispheric Asymmetry in Sunspot Cycles
• Importance of Meridional Circulation in Flux Transport Dynamo: The Possibility of a Maunder-like Grand Minimum
• Solar Cycle Variability Induced by Tilt Angle Scatter in a Babcock--Leighton Solar Dynamo Model
• The Hemispheric Asymmetry of Solar Activity During the Twentieth Century and the Solar Dynamo
• Exploring the $P_{cyc}$ vs $P_{rot}$ relation with flux transport dynamo models of solar-like stars
• Hemispheric Coupling: Comparing Dynamo Simulations and Observations
• Modeling Solar Cycles 15 to 21 Using a Flux Transport Dynamo
• The Solar-Stellar Connection
• Turbulent Pumping of Magnetic Flux Reduces Solar Cycle Memory and thus Impacts Predictability of the Sun's Activity
• On the Amplitude of Convective Velocities in the Deep Solar Interior
• The Waldmeier effect and the flux transport solar dynamo
• Magnetic Quenching of Turbulent Diffusivity: Reconciling Mixing-length Theory Estimates with Kinematic Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle
• Grand Minima and North-South Asymmetry of Solar Activity
• Kinematic active region formation in a three-dimensional solar dynamo model
• Models for the long-term variations of solar activity
• Numerical Calculation of Convection with Reduced Speed of Sound Technique
• A Stochastically Forced Time Delay Solar Dynamo Model: Self-Consistent Recovery from a Maunder-like Grand Minimum Necessitates a Mean-Field Alpha Effect
• Helioseismic data inclusion in solar dynamo models
• Double-peaks of the solar cycle: An explanation from a dynamo model
• Long-term modulation of solar cycles
• A possible explanation of the Maunder minimum from a flux transport dynamo model
• The origin of the solar magnetic cycle
• Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions
• A Three-Dimensional Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model: Initial Results with Axisymmetric Flows
• A theoretical study of the build-up of the Sun's polar magnetic field by using a 3D kinematic dynamo model
• Studies of grand minima in sunspot cycles from a flux transport solar dynamo model
• Mean field models of flux transport dynamo and meridional circulation in the Sun and stars
• Quenching and anisotropy of hydromagnetic turbulent transport
• A proposed paradigm for solar cycle dynamics mediated via turbulent pumping of magnetic flux in Babcock-Leighton type solar dynamos
• Correlation between Decay Rate and Amplitude of Solar Cycles as Revealed from Observations and Dynamo Theory
• Polar Field Puzzle: Solutions from Flux-Transport Dynamo and Surface Transport Models
• Quenching of Meridional Circulation in Flux Transport Dynamo Models
• A 3D kinematic Babcock Leighton solar dynamo model sustained by dynamic magnetic buoyancy and flux transport processes
• a dynamo-based prediction of solar cycle 25
• Dynamo model for grand maxima of solar activity: can superflares occur on the Sun?
• Comparison of physics-based prediction models of solar cycle 25
• Solar dynamo and geomagnetic activity
• Stellar mid-life crisis: subcritical magnetic dynamos of solar-like stars and the breakdown of gyrochronology
• Physical Origin of Differences among various Measures of Solar Meridional Circulation
• A Babcock-Leighton-type Solar Dynamo Operating in the Bulk of the Convection Zone
• The Sun's interior structure and dynamics, and the solar cycle
• Effects of turbulent pumping on stellar activity cycles
• The irregularities of the sunspot cycle and their theoretical modelling
• Simulation Study of Hemispheric Phase-Asymmetry in the Solar Cycle
• Impact of Anomalous Active Regions on the Large-scale Magnetic Field of the Sun
• A theoretical model of the variation of the meridional circulation with the solar cycle
• Meridional Circulation Dynamics in a Cyclic Convective Dynamo
• Supercriticality of the dynamo limits the memory of the polar field to one cycle
• Variational estimation of the large scale time dependent meridional circulation in the Sun: proofs of concept with a solar mean field dynamo model
• Does the mean-field alpha effect have any impact on the memory of the solar cycle?
• The treatment of magnetic buoyancy in flux transport dynamo models
• Discovery of a relation between the decay rate of the Sun's magnetic dipole and the growth rate of the following sunspot cycle: a new precursor for solar cycle prediction
• Is hemispheric asymmetry in the sunspot cycle solely governed by polar flux imbalance in the previous cycle?
• The solar dynamo: inferences from observations and modeling
• Incorporating Surface Convection into a 3D Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model
• Impact of anti-solar differential rotation in mean-field solar-type dynamos -- Exploring possible magnetic cycles in slowly rotating stars
• A Critical Assessment of the Flux Transport Dynamo
• On effects of surface bipolar magnetic regions on the convection zone dynamo
• Flux Transport Dynamo: From Modelling Irregularities to Making Predictions
• On the compatibility of a flux transport dynamo with a fast tachocline scenario
• Algebraic Quantification of the Contribution of Active Regions to the Sun's Dipole Moment: Applications to Century-scale Polar Field Estimates and Solar Cycle Forecasting
• Dispersion of the solar magnetic flux in undisturbed photosphere as derived from SDO/HMI data
• Estimation of turbulent diffusivity with direct numerical simulation of stellar convection
• Recent Developments in Helioseismic Analysis Methods and Solar Data Assimilation
• Forecasting the solar cycle using variational data assimilation: validation on cycles 22 to 25
• On the origin of long-term modulation in the Sun's magnetic activity cycle
• Minimal Roles of Solar Subsurface Meridional Flow in the distributed-shear Babcock-Leighton Dynamo
• Outstanding Issues in Solar Dynamo Theory
• Long-term variations in solar meridional circulation from geomagnetic data: implications for solar dynamo theory
• Dynamos in Stellar Convection Zones: of Wreaths and Cycles
• Effects of Observational Data Shortage on Accuracy of Global Solar Activity Forecast
• The rotational influence on solar convection
• Solar Interior
• Is meridional circulation important in modelling irregularities of the solar cycle?
• Why the sunspot cycle is double peaked
• Solar-cycle precursors and predictions
• Possible explanations of the Maunder minimum from a flux transport dynamo model
• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives
• Modelling grand minima of solar activity using a flux transport dynamo model
• Flux-transport and mean-field dynamo theories of solar cycles
• Time-dependent theory of solar meridional flows
• Dynamo models of grand minima
• Origin of solar magnetism
• Forecasting the solar activity cycle: new insights
• Predicting a solar cycle before its onset using a flux transport dynamo model
• Can meridional flow variations explain the observed rising/declining phase asymmetry in the solar cycle?
• Modeling the Solar Cycle: What the Future Holds