Studies of grand minima in sunspot cycles from a flux transport solar dynamo model

Abstract

We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultaneous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results: (a) fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; (b) both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; (c) distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; (d) the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, a coherence time of about 30 years being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an alpha-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this alpha-effect is suitably fine-tuned.

To appear in Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics

References in corpus (11)

• Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model
• Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
• Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection versus Diffusion Dominated Solar Convection Zones
• Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies
• Importance of Meridional Circulation in Flux Transport Dynamo: The Possibility of a Maunder-like Grand Minimum
• A solar cycle lost in 1793--1800: Early sunspot observations resolve the old mystery
• The Hemispheric Asymmetry of Solar Activity During the Twentieth Century and the Solar Dynamo
• Modeling Solar Cycles 15 to 21 Using a Flux Transport Dynamo
• Turbulent Pumping of Magnetic Flux Reduces Solar Cycle Memory and thus Impacts Predictability of the Sun's Activity
• Fluctuations in the Alpha-Effect and Grand Solar Minima
• Modeling a Maunder Minimum

Cited by in corpus (26)

• Is a deep one-cell meridional circulation essential for the flux transport Solar Dynamo?
• A Solar Dynamo Model Driven by Mean-Field Alpha and Babcock-Leighton Sources: Fluctuations, Grand-Minima-Maxima and Hemispheric Asymmetry in Sunspot Cycles
• Magnetically controlled stellar differential rotation near the transition from solar to anti-solar profiles
• Solar Cycle Variability Induced by Tilt Angle Scatter in a Babcock--Leighton Solar Dynamo Model
• A coupled $2\times 2$D Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model. II. Reference dynamo solutions
• Models for the long-term variations of solar activity
• Long-term modulation of solar cycles
• Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions
• Recovery from Maunder-like Grand Minima in a Babcock--Leighton Solar Dynamo Model
• A Twenty Year Decline in Solar Photospheric Magnetic Fields: Inner-Heliospheric Signatures and Possible Implications?
• Starspots, Stellar Cycles and Stellar Flares: Lessons from Solar Dynamo Models
• Correlation between Decay Rate and Amplitude of Solar Cycles as Revealed from Observations and Dynamo Theory
• Application of Synoptic Magnetograms to Global Solar Activity Forecast
• Another Mini Solar Maximum in the Offing: A Prediction for the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25
• The irregularities of the sunspot cycle and their theoretical modelling
• Nature of grand minima and maxima from fully non-linear Flux-Transport Dynamos
• The treatment of magnetic buoyancy in flux transport dynamo models
• A Critical Assessment of the Flux Transport Dynamo
• Flux Transport Dynamo: From Modelling Irregularities to Making Predictions
• Recent advances in the 3D kinematic Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo modeling
• Subcritical dynamo and hysteresis in a Babcock-Leighton type kinematic dynamo model
• Parametric Modulation of Dynamo Waves
• Effects of Observational Data Shortage on Accuracy of Global Solar Activity Forecast
• Predicting a solar cycle before its onset using a flux transport dynamo model
• Long-term variability of the solar cycle in the Babcock-Leighton dynamo framework
• Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Activity Cycles