Correlation between Decay Rate and Amplitude of Solar Cycles as Revealed from Observations and Dynamo Theory

Abstract

Using different proxies of solar activity, we have studied the following features of solar cycle. (i) A linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle and its decay rate, (ii) a linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle $n$ and the decay rate of cycle $(n-1)$ and (iii) an anti-correlation between the amplitude of cycle $n$ and the period of cycle $(n-1)$. Features (ii) and (iii) are very useful because they provide precursors for future cycles. We have reproduced these features using a flux transport dynamo model with stochastic fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton $\alpha$ effect and in the meridional circulation. Only when we introduce fluctuations in meridional circulation, we are able to reproduce different observed features of solar cycle. We discuss the possible reasons for these correlations.

22 pages, 10 figures and 2 tables, accepted in Solar Physics

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• Mean field models of flux transport dynamo and meridional circulation in the Sun and stars
• The polar precursor method for solar cycle prediction: comparison of predictors and their temporal range
• A New Formula for Predicting Solar Cycles
• Physical link of the polar field build-up with the Waldmeier effect broadens the scope of early solar cycle prediction: Cycle 25 is likely to be slightly stronger than Cycle 24
• Total Solar Irradiance during the Last Five Centuries
• Prediction of sunspot and plage coverage for Solar Cycle 25
• The dynamics of Wolf numbers based on nonlinear dynamo with magnetic helicity: comparisons with observations
• Exploring cycle period and parity of stellar magnetic activity with dynamo modeling
• The treatment of magnetic buoyancy in flux transport dynamo models
• Flux Transport Dynamo: From Modelling Irregularities to Making Predictions
• Recent advances in the 3D kinematic Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo modeling
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• Explaining the variation of the meridional circulation with the solar cycle
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• Time-dependent theory of solar meridional flows