Turbulent Pumping of Magnetic Flux Reduces Solar Cycle Memory and thus Impacts Predictability of the Sun's Activity

Abstract

Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus. Yeates et al. (2008) have shown that the dynamical memory of the solar dynamo mechanism governs predictability and this memory is different for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. By utilizing stochastically forced, kinematic dynamo simulations, we demonstrate that the inclusion of downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux reduces the memory of both advection- and diffusion-dominated solar dynamos to only one cycle; stronger pumping degrades this memory further. Thus, our results reconcile the diverging dynamo-model-based forecasts for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. We conclude that reliable predictions for the maximum of solar activity can be made only at the preceding minimum--allowing about 5 years of advance planning for space weather. For more accurate predictions, sequential data assimilation would be necessary in forecasting models to account for the Sun's short memory.

4 figures, 1 table

References in corpus (9)

• Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model
• Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
• Magnetic Landscape of Sun's Polar Region
• Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection versus Diffusion Dominated Solar Convection Zones
• The unusual minimum of sunspot cycle 23 a consequence of Sun's meridional plasma flow variations
• A Double-Ring Algorithm for Modeling Solar Active Regions: Unifying Kinematic Dynamo Models and Surface Flux-Transport Simulations
• Magnetoconvection and dynamo coefficients III: alpha-effect and magnetic pumping in the rapid rotation regime
• Solar dynamo models with alpha-effect and turbulent pumping from local 3D convection calculations
• Stellar dynamos with $\vec{\Omega }\times \vec{J}$ effect

Cited by in corpus (19)

• Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies
• Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24-25 in Perspective
• Solar Cycle Variability Induced by Tilt Angle Scatter in a Babcock--Leighton Solar Dynamo Model
• The Solar-Stellar Connection
• Models for the long-term variations of solar activity
• Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions
• Mean field models of flux transport dynamo and meridional circulation in the Sun and stars
• Quenching and anisotropy of hydromagnetic turbulent transport
• A 3D kinematic Babcock Leighton solar dynamo model sustained by dynamic magnetic buoyancy and flux transport processes
• Application of Synoptic Magnetograms to Global Solar Activity Forecast
• Is the Hemispheric Asymmetry of Monthly Sunspot Area an Irregular Process with Long-Term Memory?
• Supercriticality of the dynamo limits the memory of the polar field to one cycle
• Does the mean-field alpha effect have any impact on the memory of the solar cycle?
• A Critical Assessment of the Flux Transport Dynamo
• Zonal harmonics of solar magnetic field for solar cycle forecast
• Forecasting the solar cycle using variational data assimilation: validation on cycles 22 to 25
• Hemispheric analysis of the magnetic flux in regular and irregular solar active regions
• Effects of Observational Data Shortage on Accuracy of Global Solar Activity Forecast
• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives