A Stochastically Forced Time Delay Solar Dynamo Model: Self-Consistent Recovery from a Maunder-like Grand Minimum Necessitates a Mean-Field Alpha Effect
arXiv:1307.5751 · doi:10.1088/0004-637X/789/1/5
Abstract
Fluctuations in the Sun's magnetic activity, including episodes of grand minima such as the Maunder minimum have important consequences for space and planetary environments. However, the underlying dynamics of such extreme fluctuations remain ill-understood. Here we use a novel mathematical model based on stochastically forced, non-linear delay differential equations to study solar cycle fluctuations, in which, time delays capture the physics of magnetic flux transport between spatially segregated dynamo source regions in the solar interior. Using this model we explicitly demonstrate that the Babcock-Leighton poloidal field source based on dispersal of tilted bipolar sunspot flux, alone, can not recover the sunspot cycle from a grand minimum. We find that an additional poloidal field source effective on weak fields--the mean-field alpha-effect driven by helical turbulence--is necessary for self-consistent recovery of the sunspot cycle from grand minima episodes.
14 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ
References in corpus (7)
- Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection versus Diffusion Dominated Solar Convection Zones
- Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies
- A Solar Dynamo Model Driven by Mean-Field Alpha and Babcock-Leighton Sources: Fluctuations, Grand-Minima-Maxima and Hemispheric Asymmetry in Sunspot Cycles
- On Predicting the Solar Cycle using Mean-Field Models
- Turbulent Pumping of Magnetic Flux Reduces Solar Cycle Memory and thus Impacts Predictability of the Sun's Activity
- Problems with kinematic mean field electrodynamics at high magnetic Reynolds numbers
- Helioseismic data inclusion in solar dynamo models
Cited by in corpus (34)
- Solar cycle prediction
- Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions
- Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24-25 in Perspective
- A coupled D Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model. II. Reference dynamo solutions
- Models for the long-term variations of solar activity
- Evolution of solar and stellar dynamo theory
- Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions
- Mean field models of flux transport dynamo and meridional circulation in the Sun and stars
- Recovery from Maunder-like Grand Minima in a Babcock--Leighton Solar Dynamo Model
- Convective dynamo action in a spherical shell: symmetries and modulation
- The Origin of Parity Changes in the Solar Cycle
- A proposed paradigm for solar cycle dynamics mediated via turbulent pumping of magnetic flux in Babcock-Leighton type solar dynamos
- How supercritical are stellar dynamos, or why do old main-sequence dwarfs not obey gyrochronology?
- Solar large-scale magnetic field and cycle patterns in solar dynamo
- A 3D kinematic Babcock Leighton solar dynamo model sustained by dynamic magnetic buoyancy and flux transport processes
- a dynamo-based prediction of solar cycle 25
- Dynamo model for grand maxima of solar activity: can superflares occur on the Sun?
- Stellar mid-life crisis: subcritical magnetic dynamos of solar-like stars and the breakdown of gyrochronology
- Oscillator models of the solar cycle: Towards the development of inversion methods
- Nature of grand minima and maxima from fully non-linear Flux-Transport Dynamos
- On the synchronizability of Tayler-Spruit and Babcock-Leighton type dynamos
- Supercriticality of the dynamo limits the memory of the polar field to one cycle
- Does the mean-field alpha effect have any impact on the memory of the solar cycle?
- Is hemispheric asymmetry in the sunspot cycle solely governed by polar flux imbalance in the previous cycle?
- Evidence of persistence of weak magnetic cycles driven by meridional plasma flows during solar grand minima phases
- Long-term forcing of Sun's coronal field, open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential during grand minima, maxima and regular activity phases by the solar dynamo mechanism
- A Critical Assessment of the Flux Transport Dynamo
- Flux Transport Dynamo: From Modelling Irregularities to Making Predictions
- On the origin of long-term modulation in the Sun's magnetic activity cycle
- Variation of small scale magnetic fields over a century using Ca-K images as proxy
- Hemispheric analysis of the magnetic flux in regular and irregular solar active regions
- Delayed Babcock-Leighton dynamos in the diffusion-dominated regime
- Recovery of the Solar Cycle from Maunder-like Grand Minima Episodes: A Quantification of the Necessary Polar Flux Threshold through Solar Dynamo Simulations
- Can meridional flow variations explain the observed rising/declining phase asymmetry in the solar cycle?