Supercriticality of the dynamo limits the memory of the polar field to one cycle

Abstract

The polar magnetic field precursor is considered to be the most robust and physics-based method for the prediction of the next solar cycle strength. However, to make a reliable prediction of a cycle, is the polar field at the solar minimum of the previous cycle enough or we need the polar field of many previous cycles? To answer this question, we performed several simulations using Babcock-Leighton type flux transport dynamo models with the stochastically forced source for the poloidal field ($\alpha$ term). We show that when the dynamo is operating near the critical dynamo transition or only weakly supercritical, the polar field of the cycle n determines the amplitude of the next several cycles (at least three). However, when the dynamo is substantially supercritical, this correlation of the polar field is reduced to one cycle. This change in the memory of the polar field from multi- to one-cycle with the increase of the super-criticality of the dynamo is independent of the importance of various turbulent transport processes in the model. We further show that when the dynamo operates near the critical, it produces frequent extended episodes of weaker activity, resembling the solar grand minima. The occurrence of grand minima is accompanied by the multi-cycle correlation of polar field. The frequency of grand minima decreases with the increase of supercriticality of the dynamo.

12 pages, 7 figures and accepted in ApJ

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Cited by in corpus (10)

• Models for the long-term variations of solar activity
• Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions
• Comparison of physics-based prediction models of solar cycle 25
• Physical link of the polar field build-up with the Waldmeier effect broadens the scope of early solar cycle prediction: Cycle 25 is likely to be slightly stronger than Cycle 24
• Dynamo modelling for cycle variability and occurrence of grand minima in Sun-like stars: Rotation rate dependence
• Role of sunspot latitude versus tilt in determining the polar field and amplitude of the next cycle: Cause of the weak Solar Cycle 20
• Observation-Based Iterative Map for Solar Cycles. I. Nature of Solar Cycle Variability
• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives
• Stellar cycle variability in Mount Wilson stars and dynamo models: Rotation rate and dynamo number dependency
• Evolution of the Sun's activity and the poleward transport of remnant magnetic flux in Cycles 21--24