On the origin of long-term modulation in the Sun's magnetic activity cycle

Abstract

One of the most striking manifestations of orderly behavior emerging out of complex interactions in any astrophysical system is the 11-year cycle of sunspots. However, direct sunspot observations and reconstructions of long-term solar activity clearly exhibit amplitude fluctuations beyond the decadal timescale -- which may be termed as supradecadal modulation. Whether this long-term modulation in the Sun's magnetic activity results from nonlinear mechanisms or stochastic perturbations remains controversial and a matter of active debate. Utilizing multi-millennial scale kinematic dynamo simulations based on the Babcock-Leighton paradigm -- in the likely (near-critical) regime of operation of the solar dynamo -- we demonstrate that this supradecadal modulation in solar activity cannot be explained by nonlinear mechanisms alone; stochastic forcing is essential for the manifestation of observed long-term fluctuations in the near-critical dynamo regime. Our findings substantiate some independent observational and theoretical investigations, and provide additional insights into temporal dynamics associated with a plethora of natural phenomena in astronomy and planetary systems arising from weakly nonlinear, non-deterministic processes.

12 pages, 4 figures, Published in ApJL

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• Extreme Fluctuations in the Sun's Activity over the Modern Maximum: Understanding the Enigmatic Solar Cycles 19-20
• Recovery of the Solar Cycle from Maunder-like Grand Minima Episodes: A Quantification of the Necessary Polar Flux Threshold through Solar Dynamo Simulations
• Can meridional flow variations explain the observed rising/declining phase asymmetry in the solar cycle?