Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

Abstract

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]

arXiv commentIn press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures)

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Cited by in corpus (64)

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• Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24-25 in Perspective
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• Impact of Stellar Superflares on Planetary Habitability
• COCONUT, a novel fast-converging MHD model for solar corona simulations: I. Benchmarking and optimization of polytropic solutions
• Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions
• Probabilistic Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) Evaluation for Heliospheric Propagation of CMEs
• Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models: I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework
• Results from The Latin American Giant Observatory Space Weather Simulation Chain
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• COCONUT, a novel fast-converging MHD model for solar corona simulations: II. Assessing the impact of the input magnetic map on space-weather forecasting at minimum of activity
• Implementing the MULTI-VP coronal model in EUHFORIA: test case results and comparisons with the WSA coronal model
• Modelling a multi-spacecraft coronal mass ejection encounter with EUHFORIA
• Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. II. An Adaptive Prediction System for Specifying Solar Wind Speed Near the Sun
• A first spectroscopic measurement of the magnetic field strength for an active region of the solar corona
• SWASTi-SW: Space Weather Adaptive SimulaTion framework for Solar Wind and its relevance to ADITYA-L1 mission
• Self-consistent propagation of flux ropes in realistic coronal simulations
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• The characteristics of flare- and CME-productive solar active regions
• Impact of Anomalous Active Regions on the Large-scale Magnetic Field of the Sun
• Prediction of Dst during solar minimum using in situ measurements at L5
• Blind Stereoscopy of the Coronal Magnetic Field
• Discovery of a relation between the decay rate of the Sun's magnetic dipole and the growth rate of the following sunspot cycle: a new precursor for solar cycle prediction
• Does the mean-field alpha effect have any impact on the memory of the solar cycle?
• Coupled MHD-Focused Transport Simulations for Modeling Solar Particle Events
• Evidence of persistence of weak magnetic cycles driven by meridional plasma flows during solar grand minima phases
• Two Classes of Eruptive Events During Solar Minimum
• Determining the source and eruption dynamics of a stealth CME using NLFFF modelling and MHD simulations
• Deconstructing the Properties of Solar Super Active Region 13664 in the Context of the Historic Geomagnetic Storm of 2024 May 10-11
• A Prospective New Diagnostic Technique for Distinguishing Eruptive and Non-Eruptive Active Regions
• Flux emergence and generation of flare-productive active regions
• Addressing Gaps in Space Weather Operations and Understanding with Small Satellites
• Analysis of solar eruptions deflecting in the low corona: influence of the magnetic environment
• The 2019 July 2 Total Solar Eclipse: Prediction of the Coronal Magnetic Field Structure and Polarization Characteristics
• Wavelet-based parallel dynamic mesh adaptation for magnetohydrodynamics in the AMROC framework
• Neutral Hydrogen and its Emission Lines in the Solar Corona
• A Time-Efficient, Data Driven Modelling Approach For Predicting The Geomagnetic Impact of Coronal Mass Ejections
• On the origin of long-term modulation in the Sun's magnetic activity cycle
• Cross-Field Diffusion Effects on Particle Transport in a Solar Coronal Flux Rope
• Verification of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center solar flare forecast (1998-2024)
• International Coordination and Support for SmallSat-enabled Space Weather Activities
• Energetic particle acceleration and transport with the novel Icarus$+$PARADISE model
• Magnetic connectivity from the Sun to the Earth with MHD models I. Impact of the magnetic modelling for connectivity validation
• Hit or Miss, Arrival Time, and $B_z$ Orientation Predictions of BATS-R-US CME Simulations at 1 AU
• A Machine-Learning-Ready Dataset Prepared from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Mission
• Recovery of the Solar Cycle from Maunder-like Grand Minima Episodes: A Quantification of the Necessary Polar Flux Threshold through Solar Dynamo Simulations
• Extreme time-integrated geomagnetic activity: Ap index statistics
• Towards a Modular Ontology for Space Weather Research
• Using sunRunner3D to interpret the global structure of the heliosphere from in situ measurements
• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives
• A Comparative Analysis of Machine-learning Models for Solar Flare Forecasting: Identifying High-performing Active Region Flare Indicators
• The Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST) Project: Flare forecasting in the big data & machine learning era
• Web-based description of the space radiation environment using the Bethe-Bloch model
• Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K${}_{\text{p}}$ Index
• Can meridional flow variations explain the observed rising/declining phase asymmetry in the solar cycle?
• Prompt identification of solar wind stream interaction regions from Survey Burst 1 Mode observations of the Radio and Plasma Wave experiment on Solar Orbiter
• Locate a stellar flare from the M dwarf LAMOST J1332+5057