Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

Abstract

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]

In press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures)

References in corpus (2)

• Assessing the impact of space weather on the electric power grid based on insurance claims for industrial electrical equipment
• Disturbances in the U.S. electric grid associated with geomagnetic activity

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• Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions
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• Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models: I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework
• Overview of the remote sensing observations from PSP solar encounter 10 with perihelion at 13.3 Rsun
• COCONUT, a novel fast-converging MHD model for solar corona simulations: II. Assessing the impact of the input magnetic map on space-weather forecasting at minimum of activity
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• Modelling a multi-spacecraft coronal mass ejection encounter with EUHFORIA
• A first spectroscopic measurement of the magnetic field strength for an active region of the solar corona
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• Self-consistent propagation of flux ropes in realistic coronal simulations
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• Two Classes of Eruptive Events During Solar Minimum
• Evidence of persistence of weak magnetic cycles driven by meridional plasma flows during solar grand minima phases
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• On the origin of long-term modulation in the Sun's magnetic activity cycle
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• Towards a Modular Ontology for Space Weather Research
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• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives
• A Comparative Analysis of Machine-learning Models for Solar Flare Forecasting: Identifying High-performing Active Region Flare Indicators
• Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K${}_{\text{p}}$ Index
• The Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST) Project: Flare forecasting in the big data & machine learning era
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