422 citations
Counting papers with at most 25 authors, so collaboration author lists do not stand in for the people here.
- The University of QueenslandAU5 papers
- National Institute of Information and Communications TechnologyJP4 papers
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationUS4 papers
- Academy of AthensGR3 papers
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Dark Matter Particle PhysicsAU3 papers
- Australian National UniversityAU3 papers
- Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueFR3 papers
- Dublin Institute For Advanced StudiesIE3 papers
- Electronics and Telecommunications Research InstituteKR3 papers
- Georgia State UniversityUS3 papers
- Imperial College LondonGB3 papers
- Institute of Theoretical PhysicsCN3 papers
24 papers
Statistical post-processing yields accurate probabilistic forecasts from Artificial Intelligence weather models
Belinda Trotta, Robert Johnson, Catherine de Burgh-Day +7
Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather models are now reaching operational-grade performance for some variables, but like traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, they…
Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation
Robert J. Taggart, David J. Wilke
Risk matrices are widely used across a range of fields and have found increasing utility in warning decision practices globally. However, their application in this context presents…
Asymmetric response of the North Atlantic gyres to the North Atlantic Oscillation
Dhruv Bhagtani, Andy McC. Hogg, Ryan M. Holmes +2
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a leading mode of atmospheric variability, affecting the North Atlantic Ocean on sub-seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. The NAO changes t…
scores: A Python package for verifying and evaluating models and predictions with xarray
Tennessee Leeuwenburg, Nicholas Loveday, Elizabeth E. Ebert +8
`scores` is a Python package containing mathematical functions for the verification, evaluation and optimisation of forecasts, predictions or models. It supports labelled n-dimensi…
Empirical Upscaling of Point-scale Soil Moisture Measurements for Spatial Evaluation of Model Simulations and Satellite Retrievals
Yi Yu, Brendan P. Malone, Luigi J. Renzullo
The evaluation of modelled or satellite-derived soil moisture (SM) estimates is usually dependent on comparisons against in-situ SM measurements. However, the inherent mismatch in…
Site-specific Deterministic Temperature and Humidity Forecasts with Explainable and Reliable Machine Learning
MengMeng Han, Tennessee Leeuwenburg, Brad Murphy
Site-specific weather forecasts are essential to accurate prediction of power demand and are consequently of great interest to energy operators. However, weather forecasts from cur…
A Radar-Based Hail Climatology of Australia
Jordan P. Brook, Joshua S. Soderholm, Alain Protat +2
In Australia, hailstorms present considerable public safety and economic risks, where they are considered the most damaging natural hazard in terms of annual insured losses. Despit…
The Effects of Spatial Interpolation on a Novel, Dual-Doppler 3D Wind Retrieval Technique
Jordan P. Brook, Alain Protat, Corey K. Potvin +2
Three-dimensional wind retrievals from ground-based Doppler radars have played an important role in meteorological research and nowcasting over the past four decades. However, in r…
A scoring framework for tiered warnings and multicategorical forecasts based on fixed risk measures
Robert Taggart, Nicholas Loveday, Deryn Griffiths
The use of tiered warnings and multicategorical forecasts are ubiquitous in meteorological operations. Here, a flexible family of scoring functions is presented for evaluating the…
Point forecasting and forecast evaluation with generalized Huber loss
Robert J. Taggart
Huber loss, its asymmetric variants and their associated functionals (here named Huber functionals) are studied in the context of point forecasting and forecast evaluation. The Hub…
Thermal WIMPs and the Scale of New Physics: Global Fits of Dirac Dark Matter Effective Field Theories
The GAMBIT Collaboration, Peter Athron, Neal Avis Kozar +24
We assess the status of a wide class of WIMP dark matter (DM) models in light of the latest experimental results using the global fitting framework . We perform a…
Evaluation of point forecasts for extreme events using consistent scoring functions
Robert J. Taggart
We present a method for comparing point forecasts in a region of interest, such as the tails or centre of a variable's range. This method cannot be hedged, in contrast to condition…
A comparison of optimisation algorithms for high-dimensional particle and astrophysics applications
The DarkMachines High Dimensional Sampling Group, Csaba Balázs, Melissa van Beekveld +18
Optimisation problems are ubiquitous in particle and astrophysics, and involve locating the optimum of a complicated function of many parameters that may be computationally expensi…
Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories
Shehu S. AbdusSalam, Fruzsina J. Agocs, Benjamin C. Allanach +72
Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle…
Exact spatial and temporal balance of energy exchanges within a horizontally explicit/vertically implicit non-hydrostatic atmosphere
David Lee, Artur Palha
A new horizontally explicit/vertically implicit (HEVI) time splitting scheme for atmospheric modelling is introduced, for which the horizontal divergence terms are applied within t…
Weather Radar in Nepal: Opportunities and Challenges in Mountainous Region
Rocky Talchabhadel, Ganesh R. Ghimire, Sanjib Sharma +7
Extreme rainfall is one of the major causes of natural hazards (for example flood, landslide, and debris flow) in the central Himalayan region, Nepal. The performance of strategies…
Petrov-Galerkin flux upwinding for mixed mimetic spectral elements, and its application to geophysical flow problems
David Lee
Upwinded mass fluxes are described and analysed for advection operators discretised using mixed mimetic spectral elements. This involves a Petrov-Galerkin formulation by which the…
A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. IV. Evaluating Consecutive-Day Forecasting Patterns
Sung-Hong Park, K. D. Leka, Kanya Kusano +21
A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barn…
A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. III. Systematic Behaviors of Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems
K. D. Leka, Sung-Hong Park, Kanya Kusano +21
A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Eart…
A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. II. Benchmarks, Metrics and Performance Results for Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems
K. D. Leka, Sung-Hong Park, Kanya Kusano +21
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts…
An iterative ensemble Kalman filter in presence of additive model error
Pavel Sakov, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Marc Bocquet
The iterative ensemble Kalman filter (IEnKF) in a deterministic framework was introduced in Sakov et al. (2012) to extend the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and improve its performa…
Optimal polynomial meshes and Caratheodory-Tchakaloff submeshes on the sphere
Paul Leopardi, Alvise Sommariva, Marco Vianello
Using the notion of Dubiner distance, we give an elementary proof of the fact that good covering point configurations on the 2-sphere are optimal polynomial meshes. From these we e…
Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS
Carolus J. Schrijver, Kirsti Kauristie, Alan D. Aylward +23
There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the wo…
Potential maps, Hardy spaces, and tent spaces on special Lipschitz domains
Martin Costabel, Alan McIntosh, Robert J. Taggart
Suppose that is the open region in above a Lipschitz graph and let denote the exterior derivative on . We construct a convolution operator …