Effects of Observational Data Shortage on Accuracy of Global Solar Activity Forecast

Abstract

Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available relatively recently. In this paper, we present an investigation of effects of short observational data series on accuracy of solar cycle prediction. This analysis is performed using the annual sunspot number time-series applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin dynamo model and employing the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation method. The testing of the cycle prediction accuracy is performed for the last six cycles (from Solar Cycle 19 to 24) by sequentially shortening the observational data series that are used for prediction of a target cycle, and evaluating the prediction accuracy according to specified criteria. According to the analysis, reliable activity predictions can be made using relatively short time-series of the sunspot number. It demonstrated that even two cycles of available observations allow us to obtain reasonable forecasts.

17 pages, 13 figures, 1 table, submitted to MNRAS

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