North--South Asymmetry in Solar Activity and Solar Cycle Prediction, IV: Prediction for Lengths of Upcoming Solar Cycles

Abstract

We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017 and studied North-South asymmetry in the maxima and minima of the Solar Cycles 12-24. We derived the time series of the 13-month smoothed monthly mean corrected whole-spot areas of the sunspot groups in the Sun's whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA). From these smoothed time series we obtained the values of the maxima and minima, and the corresponding epochs, of the WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12-24. We find that there exists a 44-66 years periodicity in the North-South asymmetry of the minimum. A long periodicity (130-140 years) may exist in the asymmetry of the maximum. A statistically significant correlation exists between the maximum of SSGA Cycle n and the rise time of WSGA Cycle n + 2. A reasonably significant correlation also exists between the maximum of WSGA Cycle n and the decline time of WSGA Cycle n + 2. These relations suggest that the solar dynamo carries memory over at least three solar cycles. Using these relations we obtained the values 11.7 + or - 0.15 years, 11.2 + or - 0.2 years, and 11.45 + or - 0.3 years for the lengths of WSGA Cycles 24, 25, and 26, respectively, and hence, July 2020, October 2031, and March 2043 for the minimum epochs (start dates) of WSGA Cycles 25, 26, and 27, respectively. We also obtained May 2025 and March 2036 for the maximum epochs of WSGA Cycles 25 and 26, respectively. It seems during the late Maunder minimum sunspot activity was absent around the epochs of the maxima of the NSGA-cycles and the minima of the SSGA-cycles, and some activity was present at the epochs of the maxima of some SSGA-cycles and the minima of some NSGA-cycles.

arXiv comment22 pages, 4 tables, 9 figures, to be published in Solar Physics

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Cited by in corpus (9)

• Solar-Cycle Characteristics in Kodaikanal Sunspot Area: North--South Asymmetry, Phase Distribution and Gnevyshev Gap
• Long-term Variations in Solar Activity: Predictions for Amplitude and North--South Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25
• Application of Synoptic Magnetograms to Global Solar Activity Forecast
• North-South Asymmetry in Solar Activity and Solar Cycle Prediction, V: Prediction for the North-South Asymmetry in the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25
• Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25
• Dependence of North--South Difference in the Slope of Joy's Law on Amplitude of Solar Cycle
• Effects of Observational Data Shortage on Accuracy of Global Solar Activity Forecast
• Hemispheric Distribution of Solar Active Regions During Solar Cycles 23-25
• Relationship Between the Tilt Angle of Sunspot Group and the Properties of the Next Solar Cycle