Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle~24

Abstract

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112 + or - 13 and 74 + or -10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that in case of (1), the north-south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103 + or -10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north-south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87 + or - 7 for the amplitude of cycle 24.

21 pages, 7 figures, Published in Solar Physics 252, 419-439 (2008)

References in corpus (6)

• Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model
• Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
• Solar cycle prediction using precursors and flux transport models
• Prime orbits for some smooth flows on ${\mathbb{T}}^2$
• Sun's retrograde motion and violation of even-odd cycle rule in sunspot activity
• North-south asymmetry in solar activity: predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle

Cited by in corpus (16)

• Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24-25 in Perspective
• North-south asymmetry in solar activity: predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle
• Phase lags of solar hemispheric cycles
• Search for Short-Term Periodicities in the Sun's Surface Rotation: A Revisit
• Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24 ?
• North-south asymmetry in small and large sunspot group activity and violation of even-odd solar cycle rule
• Long-term Variations in Solar Activity: Predictions for Amplitude and North--South Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25
• The G-O Rule and Waldmeier Effect in the Variations of the Numbers of Large and Small Sunspot Groups
• Long-Term Variations in the Growth and Decay Rates of Sunspot Groups
• North--South Asymmetry in Solar Activity and Solar Cycle Prediction, IV: Prediction for Lengths of Upcoming Solar Cycles
• North-South Asymmetry in Solar Activity and Solar Cycle Prediction, V: Prediction for the North-South Asymmetry in the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25
• Solar cycle variations in the growth and decay of sunspot groups
• Prediction for the amplitude and second maximum of Solar Cycle 25 and a comparison of the predictions based on strength of polar magnetic field and low latitude sunspot area
• Long-term temporal variations in the areas of sunspot groups
• The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values
• Temporal Distribution of Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Groups: Comparison to Cycles 12-23