Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux-transport dynamo

Abstract

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology data and reconstructed solar polar magnetic field, to foster the development of robust solar activity forecasts. The research is based on observationally inferred differential rotation morphology, as well as observed and reconstructed polar field using artificial neural network methods via the hemispheric sunspot areas record. Results show consistent reproduction of historical solar activity trends with enhanced results by introducing a precursor rise time coefficient. A weak solar cycle 25, with slow rise time and maximum activity $-14.4\%$ ($\pm 19.5\%$) with respect to the current cycle 24 is predicted.

arXiv comment13 pages, 15 figures. Accepted by MNRAS 18 June 2018

References in corpus (14)

• Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
• Full--Sphere Simulations of a Circulation--Dominated Solar Dynamo: Exploring the Parity Issue
• Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies
• Calibrating 100 Years of Polar Faculae Measurements: Implications for the Evolution of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field
• Is a deep one-cell meridional circulation essential for the flux transport Solar Dynamo?
• Importance of Meridional Circulation in Flux Transport Dynamo: The Possibility of a Maunder-like Grand Minimum
• Prediction of Sunspot Cycles by Data Assimilation Method
• Solar parity issue with flux-transport dynamo
• Solar magnetic activity cycles, coronal potential field models and eruption rates
• Magnetic Quenching of Turbulent Diffusivity: Reconciling Mixing-length Theory Estimates with Kinematic Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle
• Bimodal Distribution of Magnetic Fields and Areas of Sunspots
• Helioseismic data inclusion in solar dynamo models
• The Solar Meridional Circulation and Sunspot Cycle Variability
• Global model of differential rotation in the Sun

Cited by in corpus (8)

• The planetary theory of solar activity variability: a review
• Application of Synoptic Magnetograms to Global Solar Activity Forecast
• Another Mini Solar Maximum in the Offing: A Prediction for the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25
• Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25
• Transfer Learning in Spatial-Temporal Forecasting of the Solar Magnetic Field
• Effects of Observational Data Shortage on Accuracy of Global Solar Activity Forecast
• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives
• Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Activity Cycles