Another Mini Solar Maximum in the Offing: A Prediction for the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

Abstract

We examine the temporal changes in both solar polar magnetic field (PMF) at latitudes $\ge$ $45^{\circ }$ and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU during solar cycles 21--24 with emphasis on the recent activity changes after July 2015, the so called "mini solar maximum" of cycle 24. While unsigned PMF shows a solar-cycle-like variation in cycles 21 and 22, it shows an anti-solar-cycle-like variation in cycle 24. In addition, the floor level of the HMF (of 4.6 nT), i.e. the value that the HMF returns to at each solar minimum, is breached about two years prior to cycle 24 minimum, indicating a reduced HMF floor level in the upcoming cycle 24 minimum. In light of the change of unsigned PMF and the availability of a revised smoothed sunspot number (SSN) after July 2015, we have revisited the correlation of unsigned PMF and HMF at solar minimum. The correlation is used to estimate a new value of the HMF of 4.16$\pm$0.6 nT at the cycle 24 minimum and the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 25. The updated prediction is 82$\pm$8 and 133$\pm$11, on the original (V1.0) and revised (V2.0) SSN scales, respectively. These better and more reliable SSN values (due to the larger data set) imply that we will witness another mini solar maximum in the upcoming cycle 25 which will be relatively stronger than cycle 24 and a little weaker than cycle 23, even if the current solar cycle minimum occurs in 2021 instead of 2020.

arXiv comment16 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables

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