Precursors of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes from coronal green line data

Abstract

After reviewing potential early indicators of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes, we focus attention on the rush-to-the-poles (RTTP) phenomenon in coronal green line emission. Considering various correlations between properties of the RTTP with the upcoming solar cycle we find a correlation between the rate of the RTTP and the time delay until the maximum of the next solar cycle. On the basis of this correlation and the known internal regularities of the sunspot number series we predict that, following a minimum in 2019, cycle 25 will peak in late 2024 at an amplitude of about 130 (in terms of smoothed monthly revised sunspot numbers). This slightly exceeds the amplitude of cycle 24 but it would still make cycle 25 a fairly weak cycle.

17 pages, 5 figures J. Atm. Sol.-Terr. Phys., in press

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Cited by in corpus (9)

• Solar cycle prediction
• Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24-25 in Perspective
• The polar precursor method for solar cycle prediction: comparison of predictors and their temporal range
• Physical link of the polar field build-up with the Waldmeier effect broadens the scope of early solar cycle prediction: Cycle 25 is likely to be slightly stronger than Cycle 24
• Long-term Variations in Solar Activity: Predictions for Amplitude and North--South Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25
• Another Mini Solar Maximum in the Offing: A Prediction for the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25
• Time-Latitude Distribution of Prominences for 10 Solar Cycles: A study using Kodaikanal, Meudon and Kanzelhohe Data
• Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25
• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives