Solar Cycle Prediction

Abstract

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. Prediction methods form three main groups. Precursor methods rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar maximum. Their implicit assumption is that each numbered solar cycle is a consistent unit in itself, while solar activity seems to consist of a series of much less tightly intercorrelated individual cycles. Extrapolation methods, in contrast, are based on the premise that the physical process giving rise to the sunspot number record is statistically homogeneous, i.e., the mathematical regularities underlying its variations are the same at any point of time, and therefore it lends itself to analysis and forecasting by time series methods. Finally, instead of an analysis of observational data alone, model based predictions use physically (more or less) consistent dynamo models in their attempts to predict solar activity. In their overall performance precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. Nevertheless, some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts have not yet have had a chance to prove their skills. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is that of K. Schatten et al., whose approach is mainly based on the polar field precursor. The incipient cycle 24 will probably mark the end of the Modern Maximum, with the Sun switching to a state of less strong activity.

53 pages, 9 figures, 1 table

References in corpus (10)

• Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection versus Diffusion Dominated Solar Convection Zones
• The effect of activity-related meridional flow modulation on the strength of the solar polar magnetic field
• The Hemispheric Asymmetry of Solar Activity During the Twentieth Century and the Solar Dynamo
• Prediction of Sunspot Cycles by Data Assimilation Method
• A Double-Ring Algorithm for Modeling Solar Active Regions: Unifying Kinematic Dynamo Models and Surface Flux-Transport Simulations
• Changes of the solar meridional velocity profile during cycle 23 explained by flows towards the activity belts
• Increasing Lifetime of Recurrent Sunspot Groups within the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results
• Speed of Meridional Flows and Magnetic Flux Transport on the Sun
• Nonlinear Solar Dynamo Model with Magnetic Helicity
• Does the current minimum validate (or invalidate) cycle prediction methods?

Cited by in corpus (40)

• The Solar Cycle
• Revisiting the Sunspot Number
• Solar cycle prediction
• Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions
• The crucial role of surface magnetic fields for the solar dynamo
• Predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle
• Predicting the Amplitude and Hemispheric Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25 with Surface Flux Transport
• The Effect of "Rogue" Active Regions on the Solar Cycle
• Solar cycle 25: another moderate cycle?
• Limits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equatorial flux plumes
• Complex Network Approach to the Statistical Features of the Sunspot Series
• A Goldilocks principle for modeling radial velocity noise
• Long-term Solar Activity Studies using Microwave Imaging Observations and Prediction for Cycle 25
• Predicting solar surface large-scale magnetic field of Cycle 24
• Thaddäus Derfflinger's sunspot observations during 1802-1824: A primary reference to understand the Dalton Minimum
• Activity Analyses for Solar-Type Stars Observed With Kepler. I. Proxies of Magnetic Activity
• Using the Dipolar and Quadrupolar Moments to Improve Solar-Cycle Predictions Based on the Polar Magnetic Fields
• Precursors of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes from coronal green line data
• A New Formula for Predicting Solar Cycles
• Activity Analyses for Solar-type Stars Observed with Kepler. II. Magnetic Feature Versus Flare Activity
• A prediction for the 25th solar cycle maximum amplitude
• The G-O Rule and Waldmeier Effect in the Variations of the Numbers of Large and Small Sunspot Groups
• The New 2018 Version of the Meudon Spectroheliograph
• Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-flaring Active Regions
• Variational estimation of the large scale time dependent meridional circulation in the Sun: proofs of concept with a solar mean field dynamo model
• Effect of morphological asymmetry between leading and following sunspots on the prediction of solar cycle activity
• Estimating the deep solar meridional circulation using magnetic observations and a dynamo model: a variational approach
• Modeling the Sunspot Number Distribution with a Fokker-Planck Equation
• Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25
• A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Solar Cycles Using a Fokker-Planck Equation
• An ACE/CRIS-observation-based Galactic Cosmic Rays heavy nuclei spectra model II
• Comment on the paper by Popova et al. "On a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles"
• The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values
• Looking for granulation and periodicity imprints in the sunspot time series
• Magnetic Cloud and Sheath in the Ground-Level Enhancement Event of 2000 July 14. I. Effects on the Solar Energetic Particles
• Coronal mass ejections as a new indicator of the active Sun
• Analysing the spotless days as predictors of the solar activity from the new sunspot number
• Origin and Use of the Laplace Distribution in Daily Sunspot Numbers
• Revisiting the prediction of solar activity based on the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length
• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives