Predicting solar surface large-scale magnetic field of Cycle 24

Abstract

The Sun's surface field, especially the polar field, sets the boundary condition for the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields, but also provides us insight into the dynamo process. The evolution of the polar fields results from the emergence and subsequent evolution of magnetic flux through the solar surface. In this paper we use a Monte Carlo approach to investigate the evolution of the fields during the decay phase of cycle 24. Our simulations include the emergence of flux through the solar surface with statistical properties derived from previous cycles. The well-calibrated surface flux transport model is used to follow the evolution of the large-scale field. We find the polar field can be well reproduced one year in advance using the observed synoptic magnetograms as the initial condition. The temporary variation of the polar field measured by Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), e.g., the strong decrease of the south polar field during 2016-2017 which is not shown by SDO/HMI and NSO/SOLIS data usually is not well reproduced. We suggest observational effects, such as the effect of the large gradient of the magnetic field around the southern polar cap and the low resolution of WSO might be responsible. The northern hemisphere polar field is predicted to increase during 2017. The southern polar field is predicted to be stable during 2017-2018. At the end of 2017, the magnetic field in two poles is predicted to be similar (although of opposite polarities). The expected value for the dipole moment around 2020 is 1.76$\pm$0.68 G and $2.11\pm 0.69$ G based on the initial conditions from SDO/HMI and NSO/SOLIS synoptic magnetograms, respectively. It is comparable to that observed one at the end of Cycle 23 (about 1.6G based on SOHO/MDI).

25 pages, 8 figures, Accepted for publication in JASTP

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