Different contributions to space weather and space climate from different big solar active regions

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to show that large active regions (ARs) with different magnetic configurations have different contributions to short-term and long-term variations of the Sun. As a case study, the complex $\delta$-type AR 12673 and the simple $\beta$-type AR 12674 are investigated in detail. Since the axial dipole moment at cycle minimum determines the amplitude of the subsequent cycle and space climate, we have assimilated the individual observed magnetic configurations of these two ARs into a surface flux transport model to compare their contributions to the axial dipole moment $D$. We find that AR 12673 has a significant effect on $D$ at the end of the cycle, making it weaker because of the abnormal and complicated magnetic polarities. An initial strongly positive $D$ ends up with a strongly negative value. The flare-poor AR 12674 has a greater contribution to the long-term axial dipole moment than the flare-rich AR 12673. We then carry out a statistical analysis of ARs larger than 800 $\mu$Hem from 1976 to 2017. We use the flare index FI and define an axial dipole moment index DI to quantify the effects of each AR on space weather and space climate, respectively. Whereas the FI has a strong dependence on the magnetic configuration, the DI shows no such dependence. The DI is mainly determined by the latitudinal location and the latitudinal separation of the positive and negative magnetic fluxes of the ARs. Simple ARs have the same possibility as complex ARs to produce big DI values affecting space climate.

arXiv comment18 pages, 8 figures, Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

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