A New Formula for Predicting Solar Cycles

Abstract

A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in the meridional circulation, which are believed to be responsible for irregularities of the solar cycle---are constrained by using observational data. We take the polar field near minima of the cycle as a measure of the randomness in the Babcock-Leighton process, and the decay rate near the minima as a consequence of the change in meridional circulation. We couple these two observationally derived quantities into a single formula to predict the amplitude of the future solar cycle. Our new formula suggests that the cycle 25 would be a moderate cycle. Whether this formula for predicting the future solar cycle can be justified theoretically is also discussed using simulations from the flux transport dynamo model.

arXiv comment12 pages, 6 figures, Accepted for publication in ApJ

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Cited by in corpus (9)

• Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24-25 in Perspective
• Physical Models for Solar Cycle Predictions
• Mean field models of flux transport dynamo and meridional circulation in the Sun and stars
• Physical link of the polar field build-up with the Waldmeier effect broadens the scope of early solar cycle prediction: Cycle 25 is likely to be slightly stronger than Cycle 24
• A Theoretical Model of the Near Surface Shear Layer of the Sun
• Recent advances in the 3D kinematic Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo modeling
• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives
• Can meridional flow variations explain the observed rising/declining phase asymmetry in the solar cycle?
• Evolution of the Sun's activity and the poleward transport of remnant magnetic flux in Cycles 21--24