Using the Dipolar and Quadrupolar Moments to Improve Solar-Cycle Predictions Based on the Polar Magnetic Fields
arXiv:1308.2038 · doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.041106
Abstract
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions, leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. Here we show that cycle predictions can be made more accurate if performed separately for each hemisphere, taking advantage of information about both the dipolar and quadrupolar moments of the solar magnetic field during minimum.
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- Solar Cycle Prediction
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Cited by in corpus (17)
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- Predicting the Amplitude and Hemispheric Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25 with Surface Flux Transport
- Hemispheric Coupling: Comparing Dynamo Simulations and Observations
- Origin of the hemispheric asymmetry of solar activity
- Improvement of solar cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment
- Neural Network Forecast of the Sunspot Butterfly Diagram
- A New Formula for Predicting Solar Cycles
- Role of observable nonlinearities in solar cycle modulation
- Effect of morphological asymmetry between leading and following sunspots on the prediction of solar cycle activity
- Spatial-temporal forecasting the sunspot diagram
- Sensitivity kernels for inferring Lorentz stresses from normal-mode frequency splittings in the Sun
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- Transfer Learning in Spatial-Temporal Forecasting of the Solar Magnetic Field
- Hemispheric analysis of the magnetic flux in regular and irregular solar active regions
- Rogue active regions and the inherent unpredictability of the solar dynamo