Spatial-temporal forecasting the sunspot diagram
arXiv:1709.02796 · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201629130
Abstract
We attempt to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram in both space (i.e. in latitude) and time, instead of the usual one-dimensional time series forecasts prevalent in the scientific literature. We use a prediction method based on the non-linear embedding of data series in high dimensions. We use this method to forecast both in latitude (space) and in time, using a full spatial-temporal series of the sunspot diagram from 1874 to 2015. The analysis of the results shows that it is indeed possible to reconstruct the overall shape and amplitude of the spatial-temporal pattern of sunspots, but that the method in its current form does not have real predictive power. We also apply a metric called structural similarity to compare the forecasted and the observed butterfly cycles, showing that this metric can be a useful addition to the usual root mean square error metric when analysing the efficiency of different prediction methods.
References in corpus (27)
- The Solar Cycle
- Interdisciplinary application of nonlinear time series methods
- Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
- Solar cycle prediction using precursors and flux transport models
- Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies
- Calibrating 100 Years of Polar Faculae Measurements: Implications for the Evolution of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field
- The solar magnetic field since 1700: I. Characteristics of sunspot group emergence and reconstruction of the butterfly diagram
- Sunspot positions and sizes for 1825-1867 from the observations by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe
- Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity I: On The Relationship Between The Sunspot Cycle And The Evolution Of Small Magnetic Features
- A solar cycle lost in 1793--1800: Early sunspot observations resolve the old mystery
- The butterfly diagram in the 18th century
- Solar cycle 25: another moderate cycle?
- Solar cycle indices from the photosphere to the corona: measurements and underlying physics
- Timing Spectroscopy of Quasi-Periodic Oscillations in the Low-Mass X-ray Neutron Star Binaries
- The sunspot observations by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe
- Data-driven prediction and prevention of extreme events in a spatially extended excitable system
- Using the Dipolar and Quadrupolar Moments to Improve Solar-Cycle Predictions Based on the Polar Magnetic Fields
- Sunspot areas and tilt angles for solar cycles 7-10
- Tsallis non-extensive statistics, intermittent turbulence, SOC and chaos in the solar plasma. Part one: Sunspot dynamics
- In--out intermittency in PDE and ODE models
- The chaotic solar cycle II. Analysis of cosmogenic 10Be data
- Digitization of sunspot drawings by Spörer made in 1861-1894
- Solar activity in the past and the chaotic behaviour of the dynamo
- Width of Sunspot Generating Zone and Reconstruction of Butterfly Diagram
- Crisis-induced intermittency in truncated mean field dynamos
- Multiple forms of intermittency in PDE dynamo models
- First solar butterfly diagram from Schwabe's observations in 1825-1867