Predicting a solar cycle before its onset using a flux transport dynamo model

Abstract

We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle~24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle~24, on the assumption that the irregularities of the solar cycle arise due to the fluctuations in the Babcock--Leighton mechanism. We point out that fluctuations in the meridional circulation can be another cause of irregularities in the cycle.

To be published in the Proceedings of IAU Symposium 335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts

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