Surface flux transport modeling for solar cycles 15--21: effects of cycle-dependent tilt angles of sunspot groups

Abstract

We model the surface magnetic field and open flux of the Sun from 1913 to 1986 using a surface flux transport model, which includes the observed cycle-to-cycle variation of sunspot group tilts. The model reproduces the empirically derived time evolution of the solar open magnetic flux, and the reversal times of the polar fields. We find that both the polar field and the axial dipole moment resulting from this model around cycle minimum correlate with the strength of the following cycle.

Accepted for publication by ApJ

References in corpus (5)

• Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
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• The effect of activity-related meridional flow modulation on the strength of the solar polar magnetic field
• Modeling the Sun's open magnetic flux and the heliospheric current sheet
• Observation and Modeling of the Solar-Cycle Variation of the Meridional Flow

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