Effects of Meridional Flow Variations on Solar Cycles 23 and 24

Abstract

The faster meridional flow that preceded the solar cycle 23/24 minimum is thought to have led to weaker polar field strengths, producing the extended solar minimum and the unusually weak cycle 24. To determine the impact of meridional flow variations on the sunspot cycle, we have simulated the Sun's surface magnetic field evolution with our newly developed surface flux transport model. We investigate three different cases: a constant average meridional flow, the observed time-varying meridional flow, and a time-varying meridional flow in which the observed variations from the average have been doubled. Comparison of these simulations shows that the variations in the meridional flow over cycle 23 have a significant impact (~20%) on the polar fields. However, the variations produced polar fields that were stronger than they would have been otherwise. We propose that the primary cause of the extended cycle 23/24 minimum and weak cycle 24 was the weakness of cycle 23 itself - with fewer sunspots, there was insufficient flux to build a big cycle. We also find that any polar counter-cells in the meridional flow (equatorward flow at high latitudes) produce flux concentrations at mid-to-high latitudes that are not consistent with observations.

arXiv comment12 Pages, 5 Figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

References in corpus (9)

• Bipolar Magnetic Regions on the Sun: Global Analysis of the SOHO/MDI Data Set
• Predicting the Sun's Polar Magnetic Fields with a Surface Flux Transport Model
• Calibrating 100 Years of Polar Faculae Measurements: Implications for the Evolution of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field
• Asymmetric Solar Polar Field Reversals
• The effect of activity-related meridional flow modulation on the strength of the solar polar magnetic field
• Are the strengths of solar cycles determined by converging flows towards the activity belts?
• Measurements of the Sun's High Latitude Meridional Circulation
• The Advection of Supergranules by the Sun's Axisymmetric Flows
• Mesoscale dynamics on the Sun's surface from HINODE observations

Cited by in corpus (38)

• Solar cycle prediction
• Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions
• An Updated Solar Cycle 25 Prediction with AFT: The Modern Minimum
• The cause of the weak solar cycle 24
• Predicting the Amplitude and Hemispheric Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25 with Surface Flux Transport
• Solar Cycle Variability Induced by Tilt Angle Scatter in a Babcock--Leighton Solar Dynamo Model
• The Effect of "Rogue" Active Regions on the Solar Cycle
• Global Non-Potential Magnetic Models of the Solar Corona During the March 2015 Eclipse
• Models for the long-term variations of solar activity
• Surface Flux Transport on the Sun
• A Comprehensive Method to Measure Solar Meridional Circulation and Center-to-Limb Effect Using Time-Distance Helioseismology
• Defining the Middle Corona
• Improvement of solar cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment
• Magnetic Flux Transport and the Long-Term Evolution of Solar Active Regions
• Parameter optimization for surface flux transport models
• Comparison of Helioseismic Far-side Active Region Detections with STEREO Far-Side EUV Observations of Solar Activity
• Flows around Averaged Solar Active Regions
• Impact of Anomalous Active Regions on the Large-scale Magnetic Field of the Sun
• Evolution of the Sun's Polar-fields and the Poleward Transport of Remnant Magnetic Flux
• Predicting the Timing of the the Solar Cycle 25 Polar Field Reversal
• Modeling Coronal Response in Decaying Active Regions with Magnetic Flux Transport and Steady Heating
• Meridional Circulation Dynamics in a Cyclic Convective Dynamo
• Effect of morphological asymmetry between leading and following sunspots on the prediction of solar cycle activity
• Determining the source and eruption dynamics of a stealth CME using NLFFF modelling and MHD simulations
• Investigation of the Middle Corona with SWAP and a Data-Driven Non-Potential Coronal Magnetic Field Model
• Incorporating Surface Convection into a 3D Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model
• Transfer Learning in Spatial-Temporal Forecasting of the Solar Magnetic Field
• Surface Flux Transport Modeling using Physics Informed Neural Networks
• Temporal Distribution of Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Groups: Comparison to Cycles 12-23
• Probing the Solar Meridional Circulation using Fourier Legendre Decomposition
• Quantifying Uncertainties in Solar Wind Forecasting Due to Incomplete Solar Magnetic Field Information
• Ensemble Modeling of the Solar Wind Flow with Boundary Conditions Governed by Synchronic Photospheric Magnetograms. I. Multi-point Validation in the Inner Heliosphere
• Assessing the Observability of Deep Meridional Flow Cells in the Solar Interior
• Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and Future Perspectives
• Solar poloidal magnetic field generation rate from observations and mean-field dynamos
• Time-dependent theory of solar meridional flows
• IAU commission 10 "Solar Activity": Legacy report and triennial report for 2012-2015
• A Three- dimensional Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model with Non-axisymmetric Convective Flows