Ensemble Modeling of the Solar Wind Flow with Boundary Conditions Governed by Synchronic Photospheric Magnetograms. I. Multi-point Validation in the Inner Heliosphere

Abstract

The solar wind (SW) is a vital component of space weather, providing a background for solar transients such as coronal mass ejections, stream interaction regions, and energetic particles propagating toward Earth. Accurate prediction of space weather events requires a precise description and thorough understanding of physical processes occurring in the ambient SW plasma. Ensemble simulations of the three-dimensional SW flow are performed using an empirically-driven magnetohydrodynamic heliosphere model implemented in the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS). The effect of uncertainties in the photospheric boundary conditions on the simulation outcome is investigated. The results are in good overall agreement with the observations from the Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, and OMNI data at Earth, specifically during 2020-2021. This makes it possible to shed more light on the properties of the SW propagating through the heliosphere and perspectives for improving space weather forecasts.

36 Pages, 12 Figures, Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal (ApJ)

References in corpus (13)

• The Solar Orbiter mission -- Science overview
• The Solar Probe Cup on Parker Solar Probe
• The Open Flux Problem
• Advancements in the ADAPT Photospheric Flux Transport Model
• Three-dimensional Features of the Outer Heliosphere Due to Coupling between the Interstellar and Heliospheric Magnetic Field. V. The Bow Wave, Heliospheric Boundary Layer, Instabilities, and Magnetic Reconnection
• Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models
• Effects of Meridional Flow Variations on Solar Cycles 23 and 24
• Prediction and Verification of Parker Solar Probe Solar Wind Sources at 13.3 R${}_{\odot }$
• Using Parker Solar Probe observations during the first four perihelia to constrain global magnetohydrodynamic models
• Modeling the Solar Wind at the Ulysses, Voyager, and New Horizons Spacecraft
• Pickup Ion Effect of the Solar Wind Interaction with the Local Interstellar Medium
• Predicting the Solar Wind at Parker Solar Probe Using an Empirically Driven MHD Model
• Improving the Arrival Time Estimates of Coronal Mass Ejections by Using Magnetohydrodynamic Ensemble Modeling, Heliospheric Imager data, and Machine Learning