The JWST Extragalactic Mock Catalog: Modeling galaxy populations from the UV through the near-IR over thirteen billion years of cosmic history

Abstract

We present an original phenomenological model to describe the evolution of galaxy number counts, morphologies, and spectral energy distributions across a wide range of redshifts (0.2<z<15) and stellar masses [Log10 M/Msun >6]. Our model follows observed mass and luminosity functions of both star-forming and quiescent galaxies, and reproduces the redshift evolution of colors, sizes, star-formation and chemical properties of the observed galaxy population. Unlike other existing approaches, our model includes a self-consistent treatment of stellar and photoionized gas emission and dust attenuation based on the BEAGLE tool. The mock galaxy catalogs generated with our new model can be used to simulate and optimize extragalactic surveys with future facilities such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), and to enable critical assessments of analysis procedures, interpretation tools, and measurement systematics for both photometric and spectroscopic data. As a first application of this work, we make predictions for the upcoming JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES), a joint program of the JWST/NIRCam and NIRSpec Guaranteed Time Observations teams. We show that JADES will detect, with NIRCam imaging, thousands of galaxies at z>6, and tens at z>10 at m_AB<30 (5-sigma) within the 236 arcmin^2 of the survey. The JADES data will enable accurate constraints on the evolution of the UV luminosity function at z>8, and resolve the current debate about the rate of evolution of galaxies at z>8. Ready to use mock catalogs and software to generate new realizations are publicly available as the JAdes extraGalactic Ultradeep Artificial Realizations (JAGUAR) package.

arXiv comment44 pages, 28 figures, accepted for publication in ApJS. Mock catalogs and simulated NIRCam images available for download at http://fenrir.as.arizona.edu/jaguar

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• On the detection and precise localisation of merging black holes events through strong gravitational lensing
• A Survey for High-redshift Gravitationally Lensed Quasars and Close Quasars Pairs. I. the Discoveries of an Intermediately-lensed Quasar and a Kpc-scale Quasar Pair at $z\sim 5$
• Simulating the infrared sky with a Spritz
• AstraeusIV : Quantifying the star formation histories of galaxies in the Epoch of Reionization
• LIMFAST. II. Line Intensity Mapping as a Probe of High-Redshift Galaxy Formation
• Luminous Lyman-alpha Emitters with Very Blue UV-continuum Slopes at Redshift 5.7 <= z <= 6.6
• First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) VI: The colour evolution of galaxies $z=5-15$
• On the Significance of Rare Objects at High Redshift: The Impact of Cosmic Variance
• Simulating JWST/NIRCam Color Selection of High-Redshift Galaxies
• The UV luminosity functions of Bright z>8 Galaxies: Determination from ~0.41 deg2 of HST Observations along ~sim 300 independent sightlines
• Bayesian hierarchical modelling of the ${\mathrm{M}}_{\star }$-SFR relation from 1<z<6 in ASTRODEEP
• Systematic uncertainties in models of the cosmic dawn
• Rest-Frame Near-Infrared Radial Light Profiles up to z=3 from JWST/NIRCam: Wavelength Dependence of the Sérsic Index
• Effects of self-consistent rest-ultraviolet colours in semi-empirical galaxy formation models
• Astraeus III: The environment and physical properties of reionization sources
• On the detectability of strong lensing in near-infrared surveys
• Galaxy clustering at cosmic dawn from JWST/NIRCam observations to redshift z$\sim$11
• Identification of a turnover in the initial mass function of a young stellar cluster down to 0.5 M${}_J$
• An Overdensity of Lyman Break Galaxies Around the Hot Dust-Obscured Galaxy WISE J224607.56$-$052634.9
• Statistical stellar mass corrections for high-z galaxies observed with JWST broad-band filters due to template degeneracies
• Dwarf satellites of high-z Lyman Break Galaxies: a free lunch for JWST
• Degeneracies between baryons and dark matter: the challenge of constraining the nature of dark matter with JWST
• Pushing JWST to the extremes: search and scrutiny of bright galaxy candidates at z$\simeq$15-30
• Abundant Serendipitous Emission Line Sources with JWST/NIRSpec
• A Little Red Dot at $\mathbf{z}=7.3$ within a Large Galaxy Overdensity
• Maximising the power of deep extragalactic imaging surveys with the James Webb Space Telescope
• The impact of medium-width bands on the selection, and subsequent luminosity function measurements, of high-z galaxies
• The BlueTides Mock Image Catalogue: Simulated observations of high-redshift galaxies and predictions for JWST imaging surveys
• Exploring Cosmic Dawn with PANORAMIC I: The Bright End of the UVLF at $z\sim 9-17$
• An interference-based method for the detection of strongly lensed gravitational waves
• Some First Stars Were Red: Detecting Signatures of Massive Population III Formation Through Long-Term Stochastic Color Variations
• An empirical approach to selecting the first growing black hole seeds with JWST/NIRCam
• PhoSim-NIRCam: Photon-by-photon image simulations of the James Webb Space Telescope's Near-Infrared Camera
• Direct Measurement of Extinction in a Planet-Hosting Gap
• The feasibility of constraining DM interactions with high-redshift observations by JWST
• Diffractive lensing of nano-Hertz gravitational waves emitted from supermassive binary black holes by intervening galaxies
• Astraeus VII: The environmental-dependent assembly of galaxies in the Epoch of Reionization
• Astrophysics with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna
• Exotic Image Formation in Strong Gravitational Lensing by Clusters of Galaxies. I: Cross-Section
• First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) X: Environmental Galaxy Bias and Survey Variance at High Redshift
• Signatures of reionization feedback in the near-infrared background
• JWST Discovery of a High-Redshift Tidal Disruption Event Candidate in COSMOS-Web
• Observing EAGLE galaxies with JWST: predictions for Milky Way progenitors and their building blocks
• Cosmic Stillness: High Quiescent Galaxy Fractions Across Upper Mass Scales in the Early Universe to z = 7 with JWST
• Probing the earliest phases in the formation of massive galaxies with simulated HST+JWST imaging data from Illustris
• The COSMOS-Web Lens Survey (COWLS) III: forecasts versus data
• Rapid, out of equilibrium metal enrichment indicated by a flat mass-metallicity relation at z~6 from NIRCam grism spectroscopy
• Possible photometric signatures of nebular-dominated emission in $1.5<z<8.5$ JADES galaxies
• Default Parallels: The Science Potential Of JWST Parallel Observations During TSO Primary Observations
• The dust-star interplay in late-type galaxies at z < 0.5: forecasts for the JWST
• Impact of redshift distribution uncertainties on Lyman-break galaxy cosmological parameter inference
• A first look at quasar-galaxy clustering at $z\simeq 7.3$
• The Parallel Ionizing Emissivity Survey (PIE). I. Survey design and selection of candidate Lyman Continuum leakers at 3.1<z<3.5
• Implications of the cosmological 21-cm absorption profile for high-redshift star formation and deep JWST surveys
• Finding High-Redshift Galaxies with JWST