A Framework for Prioritizing the TESS Planetary Candidates Most Amenable to Atmospheric Characterization

Abstract

A key legacy of the recently launched TESS mission will be to provide the astronomical community with many of the best transiting exoplanet targets for atmospheric characterization. However, time is of the essence to take full advantage of this opportunity. JWST, although delayed, will still complete its nominal five year mission on a timeline that motivates rapid identification, confirmation, and mass measurement of the top atmospheric characterization targets from TESS. Beyond JWST, future dedicated missions for atmospheric studies such as ARIEL require the discovery and confirmation of several hundred additional sub-Jovian size planets (R_p < 10 R_Earth) orbiting bright stars, beyond those known today, to ensure a successful statistical census of exoplanet atmospheres. Ground-based ELTs will also contribute to surveying the atmospheres of the transiting planets discovered by TESS. Here we present a set of two straightforward analytic metrics, quantifying the expected signal-to-noise in transmission and thermal emission spectroscopy for a given planet, that will allow the top atmospheric characterization targets to be readily identified among the TESS planet candidates. Targets that meet our proposed threshold values for these metrics would be encouraged for rapid follow-up and confirmation via radial velocity mass measurements. Based on the catalog of simulated TESS detections by Sullivan et al. (2015), we determine appropriate cutoff values of the metrics, such that the TESS mission will ultimately yield a sample of $\sim 300$ high-quality atmospheric characterization targets across a range of planet size bins, extending down to Earth-size, potentially habitable worlds.

arXiv commentaccepted to PASP

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• Discovery of TOI-1260d and the characterisation of the multi-planet system
• The independent discovery of planet candidates around low mass stars and astrophysical false positives from the first two TESS sectors
• Two sub-Neptunes around the M dwarf TOI-1470
• Deciphering Sub-Neptune Atmospheres: New Insights from Geochemical Models of TOI-270 d
• TOI-1696 and TOI-2136: Constraining the Masses of Two Mini-Neptunes with HPF
• TOI-908: a planet at the edge of the Neptune desert transiting a G-type star
• HD 183579b: A Warm Sub-Neptune Transiting a Solar Twin Detected by TESS
• Low 4.5 μm Dayside Emission Disfavors a Dark Bare-Rock scenario for the Hot Super-Earth TOI-431 b
• Validation of a Third Planet in the LHS 1678 System
• TOI-4336 A b: A temperate sub-Neptune ripe for atmospheric characterization in a nearby triple M-dwarf system
• A hot mini-Neptune and a temperate, highly eccentric sub-Saturn around the bright K-dwarf TOI-2134
• Diversity in the haziness and chemistry of temperate sub-Neptunes
• K2-280b -- a low density warm sub-Saturn around a mildly evolved star
• TOI-5108 b and TOI 5786 b: Two transiting sub-Saturns detected and characterized with TESS, MaHPS and SOPHIE
• The GAPS programme at TNG LXIV: An inner eccentric sub-Neptune and an outer sub-Neptune-mass candidate around BD+00 444 (TOI-2443)
• The JWST Rocky Worlds DDT Program reveals GJ 3929b to likely be a bare rock
• Is the hot, dense sub-Neptune TOI-824b an exposed Neptune mantle? Spitzer detection of the hot day side and reanalysis of the interior composition
• TIC~257060897b: an inflated, low-density, hot-Jupiter transiting a rapidly evolving subgiant star
• Discovery of an inflated hot Jupiter around a slightly evolved star TOI-1789
• The inflated, eccentric warm Jupiter TOI-4914 b orbiting a metal-poor star, and the hot Jupiters TOI-2714 b and TOI-2981 b
• Comparing transit spectroscopy pipelines at the catalogue level: evidence for systematic differences
• Radii, masses, and transit-timing variations of the three-planet system orbiting the naked-eye star TOI-396
• An extended low-density atmosphere around the Jupiter-sized planet WASP-193 b
• TOI-733 b: a planet in the small-planet radius valley orbiting a Sun-like star
• The Hot-Neptune Initiative (HONEI) I. Two hot sub-Neptunes on a close-in, eccentric orbit (TOI-5800 b) and a farther-out, circular orbit (TOI-5817 b)
• The K2-24 planetary system revisited by CHEOPS
• Discovery and characterization of a dense sub-Saturn TOI-6651b
• Investigating the eccentricity distribution of transiting, long-period giant planets
• NIRPS and TESS reveal a peculiar system around the M dwarf TOI-756: A transiting sub-Neptune and a cold eccentric giant
• Atmospheric Mass Loss from TOI-1259 A b, a Gas Giant Planet With a White Dwarf Companion
• Around which stars can TESS detect Earth-like planets? The Revised TESS Habitable Zone Catalog
• The GAPS programme at TNG XLIII. A massive brown dwarf orbiting the active M dwarf TOI-5375
• A CHEOPS Search for Massive, Long-Period Companions to the Warm Jupiter K2-139 b
• TOI-3288 b and TOI-4666 b: two gas giants transiting low-mass stars characterised by NIRPS
• A Transiting Super-Earth in the Radius Valley and An Outer Planet Candidate Around HD 307842
• TOI-1199 b and TOI-1273 b: Two new transiting hot Saturns detected and characterized with SOPHIE and TESS
• Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT 'EM) Survey. VI: Confirmation of a Long-Period Giant Planet Discovered with a Single TESS Transit
• Can Isotopologues Be Used as Biosignature Gases in Exoplanet Atmospheres?
• TESS Discovery of Twin Planets near 2:1 Resonance around Early M-Dwarf TOI 4342
• The ESPRESSO transmission spectrum of HD189733b : Extracting the planetary sodium and lithium signatures amid stellar contamination
• TESS discovery of a super-Earth and two sub-Neptunes orbiting the bright, nearby, Sun-like star HD 22946
• A low-mass sub-Neptune planet transiting the bright active star HD 73344
• Tidally Heated Sub-Neptunes, Refined Planetary Compositions, and Confirmation of a Third Planet in the TOI-1266 System
• MANGOS II: Five new giant planets orbiting low-mass stars
• K2, Spitzer, and TESS Transits of Four Sub-Neptune Exoplanets
• The Oxyometer: A Novel Instrument Concept for Characterizing Exoplanet Atmospheres
• Atmospheric composition of WASP-85Ab with ESPRESSO/VLT observations
• TOI-1743 b, TOI-5799 b, TOI-5799 c and TOI-6223 b: TESS discovery and validation of four super-Earth to Neptune-sized planets around M dwarfs
• Evidence for an Atmosphere on the Ultra-Short Period super-Earth HD 3167 b
• Three young planets around the K-dwarf K2-198: High-energy environment, evaporation history and expected future
• A joint effort to discover and characterize two resonant mini Neptunes around TOI-1803 with TESS, HARPS-N and CHEOPS
• Probing the Limits of Habitability: A Catalog of Rocky Exoplanets in the Habitable Zone
• Effect of Centrifugal Force on Transmission Spectroscopy of Exoplanet Atmospheres
• TESS and HARPS-N unveil two planets transiting TOI-1453. A super-Earth and one of the lowest mass sub-Neptunes
• Separated twins or just siblings? A multi-planet system around an M dwarf including a cool sub-Neptune
• The GAPS programme at TNG -- LXIII. Photo-evaporating puzzle: Exploring the enigmatic nature of TOI-5398 b atmospheric signal
• Validation of TOI-1221 b: A warm sub-Neptune exhibiting TTVs around a Sun-like star
• Spectroscopy of TOI-1259B -- an unpolluted white dwarf companion to an inflated warm Saturn
• A sub-Neptune transiting the young field star HD 18599 at 40 pc
• Detection and characterisation of a 106-day transiting Jupiter : TOI-2449 b / NGTS-36 b
• Warm Jupiters around M-dwarfs are great opportunities for extensive chemical, cloud and haze characterisation with JWST
• A transiting rocky super-Earth and a non-transiting sub-Neptune orbiting the M dwarf TOI-771
• A Pair of Dynamically Interacting Sub-Neptunes Around TOI-6054
• Ground-Based Reconnaissance Observations of 21 Exoplanet Atmospheres with the Exoplanet Transmission Spectroscopy Imager
• Two Bright M Dwarfs Hosting Ultra-Short-Period Super-Earths with Earth-like Compositions
• The Wanderer: Charting WASP-77A b's Formation and Migration Using a System-Wide Inventory of Carbon and Oxygen Abundances
• Exploring the habitability and interior composition of exoplanets lying within the extended habitable zone
• UV Absorption by Silicate Cloud Precursors in Ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-178b
• Confronting compositional confusion through the characterisation of the sub-Neptune orbiting HD 77946
• Separating flare and secondary atmospheric signals with RADYN modeling of near-infrared JWST transmission spectroscopy observations of TRAPPIST-1
• TOI-7166 b: A Habitable Zone mini-Neptune planet around a nearby low-mass star
• Scaling K2. V. Statistical Validation of 60 New Exoplanets From K2 Campaigns 2-18
• TOI-1634 b: an Ultra-Short Period Keystone Planet Sitting Inside the M Dwarf Radius Valley
• Atmospheric asymmetries in WASP-121 b revealed by rotational transits detected with JWST
• HyDRo: Atmospheric Retrieval of Rocky Exoplanets in Thermal Emission
• Confirmation of the hot super-Neptune TOI-672 b with NIRPS and HARPS and Insights into the Neptunian desert around M dwarfs
• TOI-4552 b: A new ultra-short period rocky world revealed by NIRPS and TESS
• The GAPS programme at TNG LXXI. A sub-Neptune suitable for atmospheric characterization in a multiplanet and mutually inclined system orbiting the bright K dwarf TOI-5789 (HIP 99452)
• Uncovering the Rapidly Evolving Orbits of the Dynamic TOI-201 System
• The dark and featureless surface of rocky exoplanet LHS 3844 b from JWST mid-infrared spectroscopy
• Discovery of a transiting hot water-world candidate orbiting Ross 176 with TESS and CARMENES
• The TESS-Keck Survey. XIX. A Warm Transiting Sub-Saturn Mass Planet and a non-Transiting Saturn Mass Planet Orbiting a Solar Analog
• Three Hot Jupiters transiting K-dwarfs with a significant heavy element mass
• Densities of small planets around the M dwarfs TOI-4336 A and TOI-4342 with ESPRESSO: Three sub-Neptunes, one super-Earth, and a Neptune-mass candidate
• Sibling Sub-Neptunes Around Sibling M Dwarfs: TOI-521 and TOI-912
• TOI-3757 b: A low density gas giant orbiting a solar-metallicity M dwarf
• Information content of JWST transmission spectroscopy of the exoplanet HAT-P-12b from the optical to the mid-infrared
• NIRPS tightens the mass estimate of GJ 3090 b and detects a planet near the stellar rotation period
• Searching for GEMS: Three warm Saturns and a super-Jupiter orbiting four early M-dwarfs
• Refining the Masses and Radii of the Star Kepler-33 and its Five Transiting Planets
• TOI-333b: A Neptune Desert planet around a F7V star
• A transiting hot Jupiter with two outer siblings orbiting an intermediate-mass post main-sequence star
• Sensitivity of Dry Lava Planet Atmospheric Emission Spectra to Changes in Lava Compositions
• The TESS-Keck Survey. XI. Mass Measurements for Four Transiting sub-Neptunes orbiting K dwarf TOI-1246
• Low-resolution Transit Spectroscopy of Three Hot Jupiters Using the 2m Himalayan Chandra Telescope
• TOI-1438: A rare system with two short-period sub-Neptunes and a tentative long-period Jupiter-like planet orbiting a K0V star
• Exploring Long-period Architectures: Four New Planet Candidates from Kepler with Periods >342 days
• Hidden Gems in TESS: sherlock finds two new rocky planets around nearby M dwarfs
• Planetary Rhythms: Synchronous Circulation on Variably Irradiated Asynchronous Planets
• A large sub-Neptune transiting the thick-disk M4V TOI-2406
• TOI-1201 b: A mini-Neptune transiting a bright and moderately young M dwarf
• Multicolour Validation of Two Temperate Mini-Neptunes Around M-dwarf Habitable Zones
• TOI-6884b: A low-mass brown dwarf transiting a slightly evolved star