Predicting the Exoplanet Yield of the TESS Prime and Extended Missions Through Years 1-7

Abstract

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has discovered $\sim$5000 planets and planet candidates after three and a half years of observations. With a planned second Extended Mission spanning Years 5 - 7 on the horizon, now is the time to revise predictions of the TESS exoplanet yield. We present simulations of the number of detectable planets around 9.4 million AFGKM stars in the TESS Input Catalog Candidate Target List v8.01 through seven years of the TESS mission. Our simulations take advantage of improved models for the photometric performance and temporal window functions. The detection model was also improved by relying on the results of inject-and-recovery testing by the Kepler team. We estimate 4719$\pm$334 planets around these stars should be detectable with data from the Prime Mission alone (Years 1 - 2), and another 3707$\pm$209 planets should be detectable by the end of the current Extended Mission (Years 3 - 4). Based on a proposed pointing scenario for a second Extended Mission (Years 5 - 7), we predict TESS should find a further 4093$\pm$180 planets, bringing the total TESS yield to 12519$\pm$678 planets. We provide our predicted yields as functions of host star spectral type, planet radius, orbital period, follow-up feasibility, and location relative to the habitable zone. We also compare our predictions to the actual Prime Mission yield, finding good agreement

arXiv comment25 pages, 11 figures, to be submitted to AAS journals

References in corpus (40)

• SciPy 1.0--Fundamental Algorithms for Scientific Computing in Python
• Array Programming with NumPy
• Gaia Data Release 2. Summary of the contents and survey properties
• The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite
• Intrinsic Colors, Temperatures, and Bolometric Corrections of Pre-Main Sequence Stars
• Habitable Zones Around Main-Sequence Stars: New Estimates
• The California-Kepler Survey. III. A Gap in the Radius Distribution of Small Planets
• Planet Occurrence within 0.25 AU of Solar-type Stars from Kepler
• The false positive rate of Kepler and the occurrence of planets
• The Revised TESS Input Catalog and Candidate Target List
• The TESS Input Catalog and Candidate Target List
• Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds
• A Framework for Prioritizing the TESS Planetary Candidates Most Amenable to Atmospheric Characterization
• The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite: Simulations of planet detections and astrophysical false positives
• Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VIII. A Fully Automated Catalog With Measured Completeness and Reliability Based on Data Release 25
• The TESS Objects of Interest Catalog from the TESS Prime Mission
• The California-Kepler Survey. IV. Metal-rich Stars Host a Greater Diversity of Planets
• A stellar-mass-dependent drop in planet occurrence rates
• Eccentricity from transit photometry: small planets in Kepler multi-planet systems have low eccentricities
• A Revised Exoplanet Yield from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)
• The Derivation, Properties and Value of Kepler's Combined Differential Photometric Precision
• The Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator. I - The Inner Edges of Planetary Systems
• Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VII. The First Fully Uniform Catalog Based on The Entire 48 Month Dataset (Q1-Q17 DR24)
• Occurrence Rates of Planets orbiting FGK Stars: Combining Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2 and Bayesian Inference
• The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data
• Searching the Entirety of Kepler Data. II. Occurrence Rate Estimates for FGK Stars
• Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems. I: A Clustered Forward Model for Exoplanetary Systems around Kepler's FGK Stars
• A Catalog of Cool Dwarf Targets for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite
• Occurrence and Architecture of Kepler Planetary Systems as Functions of Stellar Mass and Effective Temperature
• Predicted Number, Multiplicity, and Orbital Dynamics of TESS M Dwarf Exoplanets
• The TESS Faint Star Search: 1,617 TOIs from the TESS Primary Mission
• Measuring Transit Signal Recovery in the Kepler Pipeline. III. Completeness of the Q1-Q17 DR24 Planet Candidate Catalogue, with Important Caveats for Occurrence Rate Calculations
• An Estimate of the Yield of Single-Transit Planetary Events from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite
• Measuring Transit Signal Recovery in the Kepler Pipeline IV: Completeness of the DR25 Planet Candidate catalog
• TOI-269 b: An eccentric sub-Neptune transiting a M2 dwarf revisited with ExTrA
• A warm Jupiter transiting an M dwarf: A TESS single transit event confirmed with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder
• Single site observations of \textit{TESS} single transit detections
• Expected Yields of Planet discoveries from the TESS primary and extended missions
• Planet Detection Simulations for Several Possible TESS Extended Missions
• An examination of the effect of the TESS extended mission on southern hemisphere monotransits

Cited by in corpus (17)

• The Occurrence Rate of Terrestrial Planets Orbiting Nearby Mid-to-late M Dwarfs from TESS Sectors 1-42
• Predicted diversity in water content of terrestrial exoplanets orbiting M dwarfs
• LHS 1140 b is a potentially habitable water world
• Hubble Space Telescope transmission spectroscopy for the temperate sub-Neptune TOI-270d: a possible hydrogen-rich atmosphere containing water vapour
• A 1.55 R${}_{\oplus }$ habitable-zone planet hosted by TOI-715, an M4 star near the ecliptic South Pole
• Helium Enhanced Planets Along the Upper Edge of the Radius Valley
• TESS Giants Transiting Giants III: An eccentric warm Jupiter supports a period-eccentricity relation for giant planets transiting evolved stars
• Narrow loophole for H2-dominated atmospheres on habitable rocky planets around M dwarfs
• VaTEST II: Statistical Validation of 11 TESS-Detected Exoplanets Orbiting K-type Stars
• DIAmante TESS AutoRegressive Planet Search (DTARPS): I. Analysis of 0.9 Million Light Curves
• On the follow-up efforts of long-period transiting planet candidates detected with Gaia astrometry
• DIAmante TESS AutoRegressive Planet Search (DTARPS): II. Hundreds of New TESS Candidate Exoplanets
• Searching for Gravitational-Wave Counterparts using the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite
• Small and Close-In Planets are Uncommon Around A-type Stars
• Can Isotopologues Be Used as Biosignature Gases in Exoplanet Atmospheres?
• A homogeneous TTV investigation of all TESS systems with a confirmed single transiting planet
• GJ 238 b: A 0.57 Earth Radius Planet Orbiting an M2.5 Dwarf Star at 15.2 pc