Prevalence of Earth-size planets orbiting Sun-like stars

Abstract

Determining whether Earth-like planets are common or rare looms as a touchstone in the question of life in the universe. We searched for Earth-size planets that cross in front of their host stars by examining the brightness measurements of 42,000 stars from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Kepler mission. We found 603 planets, including 10 that are Earth size (1-2 Earth-radii) and receive comparable levels of stellar energy to that of Earth (within a factor of four). We account for Kepler's imperfect detectability of such planets by injecting synthetic planet-caused dimmings into the Kepler brightness measurements and recording the fraction detected. We find that $11\pm 4$ of Sun-like stars harbor an Earth-size planet receiving between one and four times the stellar intensity as Earth. We also find that the occurrence of Earth-size planets is constant with increasing orbital period (P), within equal intervals of logP up to $\sim 200$ d. Extrapolating, one finds $5.7_{-2.2}^{+1.7}$ of Sun-like stars harbor an Earth-size planet with orbital periods of 200-400 d.

Main text: 6 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. Supporting information: 54 pages, 17 pages, 3 tables. Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences available at http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1319909110

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• K2-288Bb: A Small Temperate Planet in a Low-mass Binary System Discovered by Citizen Scientists
• An Automated Method to Detect Transiting Circumbinary Planets
• Transit least-squares survey - I. Discovery and validation of an Earth-sized planet in the four-planet system K2-32 near the 1:2:5:7 resonance
• TESS discovery of a sub-Neptune orbiting a mid-M dwarf TOI-2136
• Bayesian approach to SETI
• Evolution of circumstellar discs in young star-forming regions
• Transit Visibility Zones of the Solar System Planets
• Transit Timing Variations in the three-planet system: TOI-270
• The direct imaging search for Earth 2.0: Quantifying biases and planetary false positives
• Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE): IX. Assessing the Impact of Clouds on Atmospheric Retrievals at Mid-Infrared Wavelengths with a Venus-Twin Exoplanet
• A search for technosignatures from 14 planetary systems in the Kepler field with the Green Bank Telescope at 1.15-1.73 GHz
• Transit Probabilities in Secularly Evolving Planetary Systems
• Two warm, low-density sub-Jovian planets orbiting bright stars in K2 campaigns 13 and 14
• Pterodactyls: A Tool to Uniformly Search and Vet for Young Transiting Planets In TESS Primary Mission Photometry
• Unified simulations of planetary formation and atmospheric evolution II: Rapid disk clearing by photoevaporation yields low-mass super-Earth atmospheres
• On the role of resonances in polluting white dwarfs by asteroids
• Searching for Small Circumbinary Planets I. The STANLEY Automated Algorithm and No New Planets in Existing Systems
• The Influence of 10 Unique Chemical Elements in Shaping the Distribution of Kepler Planets
• Signal coverage approach to the detection probability of hypothetical extraterrestrial emitters in the Milky Way
• Super-Earths and sub-Neptunes are Insensitive to Stellar Metallicity
• The SOPHIE search for northern extrasolar planets-XIX. A system including a cold sub-Neptune potentially transiting a V = 6.5 star HD88986
• Longevity is the key factor in the search for technosignatures
• The SNR of a Transit
• Planet occurrence rate density models including stellar effective temperature
• Magellan/PFS Radial Velocities of GJ 9827, a late K dwarf at 30 pc with Three Transiting Super-Earths
• Growth and evolution of satellites in a Jovian massive disc
• Four Jovian planets around low-luminosity giant stars observed by the EXPRESS and PPPS
• It takes two planets in resonance to tango around K2-146
• The OGLE-III planet detection efficiency from six years of microlensing observations (2003 to 2008)
• A Catalog of Stellar Evolution Profiles and the Effects of Variable Composition on Habitable Systems
• HATS-13b and HATS-14b: two transiting hot Jupiters from the HATSouth survey
• A Mini-Neptune Orbiting the Metal-poor K Dwarf BD+29 2654
• Predicting multiple planet stability and habitable zone companions in the TESS era
• Catalog of New K2 Exoplanet Candidates from Citizen Scientists
• Multibeam Blind Search of Targeted SETI Observations toward 33 Exoplanet Systems with FAST
• Comparative Climates of TRAPPIST-1 planetary system: results from a simple climate-vegetation model
• Scaling K2. III. Comparable Planet Occurrence in the FGK Samples of Campaign 5 and Kepler
• In Search of the Edge: A Bayesian Exploration of the Detectability of Red Edges in Exoplanet Reflection Spectra
• On the abundance of extraterrestrial life after the Kepler mission
• A massive hot Jupiter orbiting a metal-rich early-M star discovered in the TESS full frame images
• A population-based Habitable Zone perspective
• Atmospheric dynamics of temperate sub-Neptunes. Part I: dry dynamics
• Dynamical Evolution of Closely Packed Multiple Planetary Systems Subject to Atmospheric Mass-Loss
• Gap opening by planets in discs with magnetised winds
• Running The Gauntlet -- Survival of Small Circumbinary Planets Migrating Through Destabilising Resonances
• Eta-Earth Revisited II: Deriving a Maximum Number of Earth-like Habitats in the Galactic Disk
• Trapping (sub-)Neptunes similar to TOI-216b at the inner disk rim: Implications for the disk viscosity and the Neptunian desert
• A Comprehensive Characterization of the 70 Virginis Planetary System
• Liverpool Telescope 2: a new robotic facility for rapid transient follow-up
• The Impact of the Temporal Distribution of Communicating Civilizations on their Detectability
• Interstellar communication network. I. Overview and assumptions
• Effects of XUV radiation on circumbinary planets
• Kepler Transit Depths Contaminated by a Phantom Star
• Sculpting the circumbinary planet size distribution through resonant interactions with companion planets
• The Demographics of Exoplanets
• Survival Function Analysis of Planet Size Distribution with GAIA Data Release 2 Updates
• The K2 M67 Study: Establishing the Limits of Stellar Rotation Period Measurements in M67 with K2 Campaign 5 Data
• A Flexible Bayesian Framework for Assessing Habitability with Joint Observational and Model Constraints
• OGLE-2015-BLG-1670Lb: A Cold Neptune beyond the Snow Line in the Provisional WFIRST Microlensing Survey Field
• Another super-dense sub-Neptune in K2-182 b and refined mass measurements for K2-199 b and c
• Interstellar communication. X. The colors of optical SETI
• Dust-Gas Coupling in Turbulence- and MHD Wind-Driven Protoplanetary Disks: Implications for Rocky Planet Formation
• The growth of super-Earths: the importance of a self-consistent treatment of disc structures and pebble accretion
• The Demographics of Wide-Separation Planets
• K2-138 g: Spitzer Spots a Sixth Planet for the Citizen Science System
• Synergies between Asteroseismology and Exoplanetary Science
• Minimal conditions for survival of technological civilizations in the face of stellar evolution
• The K2-ESPRINT Project VI: K2-105 b, a Hot-Neptune around a Metal-rich G-dwarf
• Quantifying the information impact of future searches for exoplanetary biosignatures
• Exoplanets and SETI
• A Distinct Population of Small Planets: Sub-Earths
• Transits Probabilities Around Hypervelocity and Runaway Stars
• Moons Are Planets: Scientific Usefulness Versus Cultural Teleology in the Taxonomy of Planetary Science
• Dynamical rearrangement of super-Earths during disk dispersal II. Assessment of the magnetospheric rebound model for planet formation scenarios
• Probing the Survival of Planetary Systems in Globular Clusters with Tidal Disruption Events
• Sensitivity Analyses of Exoplanet Occurrence Rates from Kepler and Gaia
• On the origin of the eccentricity dichotomy displayed by compact super-Earths: dynamical heating by cold giants
• A Framework for Relative Biosignature Yields from Future Direct Imaging Missions
• Assessing the Interior Structure of Terrestrial Exoplanets with Implications for Habitability
• Redefining interiors and envelopes: hydrogen-silicate miscibility and its consequences for the structure and evolution of sub-Neptunes
• Characterizing K2 Candidate Planetary Systems Orbiting Low-Mass Stars III: A High Mass & Low Envelope Fraction for the Warm Neptune K2-55b
• How far are Extraterrestrial Life and Intelligence after Kepler ?
• The Occurrence of Earth-Like Planets Around Other Stars
• The California Legacy Survey II. Occurrence of Giant Planets Beyond the Ice line
• The Abundance of Belatedly Habitable Planets and Ambiguities in Definitions of the Continuously Habitable Zone
• On planetary systems as ordered sequences
• The Size Distribution of Inhabited Planets
• The Habitability of Large Elliptical Galaxies
• Unveiling the Planet Population at Birth
• Characterisation of TOI-406 as showcase of the THIRSTEE program: A 2-planet system straddling the M-dwarf density gap
• Gravitational Microlensing Events as a Target for SETI project
• Revising Properties of Planet-host Binary Systems II: Apparent Near-Earth Analog Planets in Binaries Are Often Sub-Neptunes
• Imaging the Dusty Substructures due to Terrestrial Planets in Planet-forming Disks with ALMA and the Next Generation Very Large Array
• Area Coverage of Expanding E.T. Signals in the Galaxy: SETI and Drake's N
• Quantifying the Classification of Exoplanets: in Search for the Right Habitability Metric
• Pursuing Truth: Improving Retrievals on Mid-Infrared Exo-Earth Spectra with Physically Motivated Water Abundance Profiles and Cloud Models
• Three direct imaging epochs could constrain the orbit of Earth 2.0 inside the habitable zone
• Searching for Biosignatures in Exoplanetary Impact Ejecta
• Substructures in protoplanetary disks imprinted by compact planetary systems
• The Drake Equation as a Function of Spectral Type and Time
• Distributions of Long-Lived Radioactive Nuclei Provided by Star Forming Environments
• Assessing the spin-orbit obliquity of low-mass planets in the breaking the chain formation model: A story of misalignment
• Panoramic optical and near-infrared SETI instrument: optical and structural design concepts
• Effect of vegetation on the temperatures of Trappist-1 planets
• Water-Cooled (sub)-Neptunes Get Better Gas Mileage
• The Log Log Prior for the Frequency of Extraterrestrial Intelligences
• Planet Occurrence: Doppler and Transit Surveys
• Can Rocky Exoplanets with Rings Pose as Sub-Neptunes?
• Setting the Stage for Habitable Planets
• Kepler-102: Masses and Compositions for a Super-Earth and Sub-Neptune Orbiting an Active Star
• Forming rocky exoplanets around K-dwarf stars
• Searching the Entirety of Kepler Data. I. 17 New Planet Candidates Including 1 Habitable Zone World
• Coupled Thermal-Chemical Evolution Models of Sub-Neptunes Reveal Atmospheric Signatures of Their Formation Location
• Small and Close-In Planets are Uncommon Around A-type Stars
• An innovative integral field unit upgrade with 3D-printed micro-lenses for the RHEA at Subaru
• A super-Earth and a mini-Neptune around Kepler-59
• NIRPS and TESS reveal a peculiar system around the M dwarf TOI-756: A transiting sub-Neptune and a cold eccentric giant
• Combining Photometry and Astrometry to Improve Orbit Retrieval of Directly Imaged Exoplanets
• Galactic Effects on Habitability
• Demography of galactic technosignatures
• Using Kepler Candidates to Examine the Properties of Habitable Zone Exoplanets
• Scaling K2 VIII: Short-Period Sub-Neptune Occurrence Rates Peak Around Early-Type M Dwarfs
• Planets similar in size are often dissimilar in interior
• Diversities and similarities exhibited by multi-planetary systems and their architectures: I. Orbital spacings
• Close-in compact super-Earth systems emerging from resonant chains: slow destabilization by unseen remnants of formation
• Dynamical Architectures of S-type Transiting Planets in Binaries II: A Dichotomy in Orbital Alignment of Small Planets in Close Binary Systems
• Takeout and Delivery: Erasing the Dusty Signature of Late-stage Terrestrial Planet Formation
• TOI-2458 b: A mini-Neptune consistent with in situ hot Jupiter formation
• Attaining Doppler Precision of 10 cm/s with a Lock-In Amplified Spectrometer
• A transiting rocky super-Earth and a non-transiting sub-Neptune orbiting the M dwarf TOI-771
• Mass Upper Bounds for Over 50 Kepler Planets Using Low-S/N Transit Timing Variations
• Communicating astrobiology and the search for life elsewhere: speculations and promises of a developing scientific field in newspapers, press releases and papers
• Halting Migration in Magnetospherically Sculpted Protoplanetary Disks
• Astrometric study of Gaia DR2 stars for interstellar communication
• Diversity of Exoplanets
• Dual-Backend Multibeam Position Switching Targeted SETI Observations toward Nearby Active Planet-Hosting Systems with FAST
• The DRAKE mission: finding the frequency of life in the Cosmos
• The Age Distribution of Potential Intelligent Life in the Milky Way
• Maps and Masses of Transiting Exoplanets: Towards New Insights into Atmospheric and Interior Properties of Planets
• Modern Earth-like Chemical Disequilibrium Biosignatures Are Challenging To Constrain Through Spectroscopic Retrievals
• Self Gravitating Incompressible Fluid in Two Dimensions
• On the Ordering of Exoplanet Systems
• Scaling K2. V. Statistical Validation of 60 New Exoplanets From K2 Campaigns 2-18
• Continuous Habitable Zones: Using Bayesian Methods to Prioritize Characterization of Potentially Habitable Worlds
• Effects of Self-gravity on Mass-loss of the Post-impact Super-Earths
• Radius and mass distribution of ultra-short period planets
• The Mass Budgets and Spatial Scales of Exoplanet Systems and Protoplanetary Disks
• On the Habitability of Our Universe
• $\text{Exoformer}$: Accelerating Bayesian atmospheric retrievals with transformer neural networks
• Percolation of 'Civilisation' in a Homogeneous Isotropic Universe
• Exoplanets through extreme optics: from PLATO to SHARK-NIR
• Exploring Long-period Architectures: Four New Planet Candidates from Kepler with Periods >342 days
• FlowSN: Neural Simulation-Based Inference under Realistic Selection Effects applied to Supernova Cosmology
• Sibling Sub-Neptunes Around Sibling M Dwarfs: TOI-521 and TOI-912
• Potential Habitability as a Stellar Property: Effects of Model Uncertainties and Measurement Precision
• The California Legacy Survey III. On The Shoulders of (Some) Giants: The Relationship between Inner Small Planets and Outer Massive Planets
• SUPERSHARP - Segmented Unfolding Primary for Exoplanet Research via Spectroscopic High Angular Resolution Photography
• Comprehensive Parameter Determination of Exoplanet through Asteroseismic Host Star Constraints
• The VLA and High-Frequency SETI: Expanding the Search for Life
• Chemical diversity of the atmospheres and interiors of sub-Neptunes: a case study of GJ 436 b