Implications for Pulsar Timing Arrays of Sub-solar Black Hole Detections: From LVK to Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer
arXiv:2508.19328 · doi:10.1088/1475-7516/2026/02/072
Abstract
The detection of compact binary mergers with sub-solar masses at gravitational-wave observatories could mark the groundbreaking discovery of primordial black holes (PBHs). Concurrently, evidence for a nHz stochastic gravitational wave background observed by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) could suggest a non-astrophysical origin, potentially arising from scalar-induced gravitational waves (SIGW). In this work, we analyze the connection between the two phenomena in the case where they share a common origin: the collapse of large primordial curvature perturbations in the early universe. We focus on sub-solar PBH populations within reach of upcoming experiments, including the current and future runs of LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA as well as the third generation observatories such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer. Using a Bayesian framework with physically motivated priors, we perform a consistent model comparison that incorporates existing astrophysical bounds together with the discovery potential of future detectors. Our analysis lends stronger support for the SIGW interpretation over the astrophysical one, as the narrowed priors place greater weight on the region of highest likelihood. Ultimately, we illustrate that combining PTA data with interferometer searches can deliver correlated evidence for new physics across multiple gravitational-wave bands.
arXiv comment41 pages, 19 figures, 7 tables; matches published version
References in corpus (279)
- Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Black Hole Merger
- A Universal Density Profile from Hierarchical Clustering
- The Structure of Cold Dark Matter Halos
- Coevolution (Or Not) of Supermassive Black Holes and Host Galaxies
- Planck 2018 results. X. Constraints on inflation
- GWTC-2: Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the First Half of the Third Observing Run
- GWTC-3: Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the Second Part of the Third Observing Run
- Neutron Star Structure and the Equation of State
- The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background
- Generating the curvature perturbation without an inflaton
- Did LIGO detect dark matter?
- Search for an isotropic gravitational-wave background with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array
- LIGO: The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory
- Science Case for the Einstein Telescope
- TEMPO2, a new pulsar timing package. I: Overview
- Searching for the nano-Hertz stochastic gravitational wave background with the Chinese Pulsar Timing Array Data Release I
- Binary Black Hole Mergers in the first Advanced LIGO Observing Run
- Sensitivity Studies for Third-Generation Gravitational Wave Observatories
- The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array III. Search for gravitational wave signals
- Possibility of Direct Measurement of the Acceleration of the Universe Using 0.1 Hz Band Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Antenna in Space
- Limits on the Macho Content of the Galactic Halo from the EROS-2 Survey of the Magellanic Clouds
- The Nuclear Equation of State and Neutron Star Masses
- Primordial Black Hole Scenario for the Gravitational-Wave Event GW150914
- Science with the space-based interferometer eLISA. II: Gravitational waves from cosmological phase transitions
- Adiabatic CMB perturbations in pre-big bang string cosmology
- A new approach to the evolution of cosmological perturbations on large scales
- Effects of Cosmological Moduli Fields on Cosmic Microwave Background
- Primordial Black Holes - Perspectives in Gravitational Wave Astronomy -
- A general proof of the conservation of the curvature perturbation
- The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Signals from New Physics
- Formation of Supermassive Black Holes
- The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Search For An Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background
- Gravitational Wave Spectrum Induced by Primordial Scalar Perturbations
- Detecting a stochastic background of gravitational radiation: Signal processing strategies and sensitivities
- Detecting gravitational waves from cosmological phase transitions with LISA: an update
- Beyond LISA: Exploring Future Gravitational Wave Missions
- The cosmological gravitational wave background from primordial density perturbations
- Tempo2, a new pulsar timing package. II: The timing model and precision estimates
- Cosmological perturbations
- Inspiral-merger-ringdown waveforms for black-hole binaries with non-precessing spins
- The clustering of massive Primordial Black Holes as Dark Matter: measuring their mass distribution with Advanced LIGO
- Semianalytic Calculation of Gravitational Wave Spectrum Nonlinearly Induced from Primordial Curvature Perturbations
- Scientific Objectives of Einstein Telescope
- The stochastic gravitational-wave background from massive black hole binary systems: implications for observations with Pulsar Timing Arrays
- Primordial black holes from single field models of inflation
- Detector configuration of DECIGO/BBO and identification of cosmological neutron-star binaries
- Detecting the Cosmic Gravitational Wave Background with the Big Bang Observer
- Massive Primordial Black Holes from Hybrid Inflation as Dark Matter and the seeds of Galaxies
- An introduction to Bayesian inference in gravitational-wave astronomy: parameter estimation, model selection, and hierarchical models
- The merger rate of primordial-black-hole binaries
- Primordial black hole constraints for extended mass functions
- Gravitational Waves Induced by non-Gaussian Scalar Perturbations
- Super-Horizon Scale Dynamics of Multi-Scalar Inflation
- A template bank for gravitational waveforms from coalescing binary black holes: non-spinning binaries
- Gravitational wave background as a probe of the primordial black hole abundance
- Near-Critical Gravitational Collapse and the Initial Mass Function of Primordial Black Holes
- Gravitational Waves from Coalescing Black Hole MACHO Binaries
- The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Gravitational Wave Background
- A Cosmological Signature of the SM Higgs Instability: Gravitational Waves
- AEDGE: Atomic Experiment for Dark Matter and Gravity Exploration in Space
- Dynamics of Primordial Black Hole Formation
- Black hole formation in the Friedmann universe: Formulation and computation in numerical relativity
- The International Pulsar Timing Array second data release: Search for an isotropic Gravitational Wave Background
- AION: An Atom Interferometer Observatory and Network
- Steepest growth of the power spectrum and primordial black holes
- On the evidence for a common-spectrum process in the search for the nanohertz gravitational-wave background with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array
- Computations of primordial black hole formation
- White Dwarf Mass Distribution in the SDSS
- Formation and Evolution of Primordial Black Hole Binaries in the Early Universe
- The NANOGrav Nine-year Data Set: Limits on the Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background
- Low-frequency gravitational radiation from coalescing massive black hole binaries in hierarchical cosmologies
- Gravitational Waves from Primordial Black Hole Mergers
- Threshold for primordial black holes: Dependence on the shape of the cosmological perturbations
- NANOGrav Hints to Primordial Black Holes as Dark Matter
- Primordial black hole formation in the early universe: critical behaviour and self-similarity
- The Astrophysics of Nanohertz Gravitational Waves
- Cosmic String Interpretation of NANOGrav Pulsar Timing Data
- Single Field Double Inflation and Primordial Black Holes
- Common-red-signal analysis with 24-yr high-precision timing of the European Pulsar Timing Array: Inferences in the stochastic gravitational-wave background search
- GetDist: a Python package for analysing Monte Carlo samples
- Has NANOGrav found first evidence for cosmic strings?
- Gravitational Wave signatures of inflationary models from Primordial Black Hole Dark Matter
- Primordial black hole formation in the radiative era: investigation of the critical nature of the collapse
- The abundance of primordial black holes depends on the shape of the inflationary power spectrum
- Did NANOGrav see a signal from primordial black hole formation?
- Probing Planckian physics: resonant production of particles during inflation and features in the primordial power spectrum
- Optimal strategies for gravitational wave stochastic background searches in pulsar timing data
- Inflationary primordial black holes for the LIGO gravitational wave events and pulsar timing array experiments
- Expected properties of the first gravitational wave signal detected with pulsar timing arrays
- Massive Black Hole Binary Mergers in Dynamical Galactic Environments
- A universal threshold for primordial black hole formation
- Stochastic gravitational waves associated with the formation of primordial black holes
- Calculating the mass spectrum of primordial black holes
- Cosmic Conundra Explained by Thermal History and Primordial Black Holes
- The Threshold for Primordial Black Hole Formation: a Simple Analytic Prescription
- The NANOGrav Nine-year Data Set: Observations, Arrival Time Measurements, and Analysis of 37 Millisecond Pulsars
- The recent gravitational wave observation by pulsar timing arrays and primordial black holes: the importance of non-gaussianities
- Primordial black holes with an accurate QCD equation of state
- Lower bound on the primordial black hole merger rate
- Chaotic new inflation and formation of primordial black holes
- Two populations of LIGO-Virgo black holes
- Observational Evidence for Primordial Black Holes: A Positivist Perspective
- Generalised constraints on the curvature perturbation from primordial black holes
- A new calculation of the mass fraction of primordial black holes
- Inflationary interpretation of the stochastic gravitational wave background signal detected by pulsar timing array experiments
- Solar-Mass Primordial Black Holes Explain NANOGrav Hint of Gravitational Waves
- Pulsar Timing Array Constraints on Primordial Black Holes with NANOGrav 11-Year Data Set
- Cosmological long-wavelength solutions and primordial black hole formation
- Primordial black holes in non-Gaussian regimes
- Search for sub-solar mass ultracompact binaries in Advanced LIGO's second observing run
- Generating PBHs and small-scale GWs in two-field models of inflation
- Primordial black holes as a tool for constraining non-Gaussianity
- Primordial Black Holes Confront LIGO/Virgo data: Current situation
- Imprints of Primordial Non-Gaussianity on Gravitational Wave Spectrum
- PINT: A Modern Software Package for Pulsar Timing
- Seeding primordial black holes in multifield inflation
- Multiband Gravitational-Wave Astronomy: Observing binary inspirals with a decihertz detector, B-DECIGO
- From NANOGrav to LIGO with metastable cosmic strings
- The Gravitational Wave Background from Massive Black Hole Binaries in Illustris: spectral features and time to detection with pulsar timing arrays
- The Ineludible non-Gaussianity of the Primordial Black Hole Abundance
- Primordial black hole formation and abundance: contribution from the non-linear relation between the density and curvature perturbation
- Black Hole Binary Formation in the Expanding Universe --- Three Body Problem Approximation ---
- Gravitational Waves Induced by Scalar Perturbations with a Lognormal Peak
- Induced gravitational waves in a general cosmological background
- PBHs and secondary GWs from ultra slow roll and punctuated inflation
- A New Probe of Dark Matter and High-Energy Universe Using Microlensing
- The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: Detector Characterization and Noise Budget
- Double inflation as a single origin of primordial black holes for all dark matter and LIGO observations
- On the minimum mass of neutron stars
- Generation of Density Perturbations by Primordial Magnetic Fields
- Curvature profiles as initial conditions for primordial black hole formation
- The GW190521 Mass Gap Event and the Primordial Black Hole Scenario
- Merger Rate Distribution of Primordial-Black-Hole Binaries
- Primordial non-gaussianity up to all orders: theoretical aspects and implications for primordial black hole models
- Runaway Merging of Black Holes: Analytical Constraint on the Timescale
- Primordial black hole formation with non-Gaussian curvature perturbations
- From inflation to black hole mergers and back again: Gravitational-wave data-driven constraints on inflationary scenarios with a first-principle model of primordial black holes across the QCD epoch
- Amplification of Cosmological Inhomogeneities by the QCD Transition
- Constraints on Bosonic Dark Matter From Observations of Old Neutron Stars
- Gauge Independence of Induced Gravitational Waves
- Primordial Black Holes for the LIGO Events in the Axion-like Curvaton Model
- Scalar Induced Gravitational Waves in Different Gauges
- Search for sub-solar mass ultracompact binaries in Advanced LIGO's first observing run
- Anatomy of single-field inflationary models for primordial black holes
- Astrophysics Milestones For Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational Wave Detection
- Primordial black holes and gravitational waves from parametric amplification of curvature perturbations
- Cosmological Background Interpretation of Pulsar Timing Array Data
- Bayesian Evidence for Both Astrophysical and Primordial Black Holes: Mapping the GWTC-2 Catalog to Third-Generation Detectors
- Primordial gravitational waves in the nano-Hertz regime and PTA data -- towards solving the GW inverse problem
- Non-linear statistics of primordial black holes from gaussian curvature perturbations
- Science-Driven Tunable Design of Cosmic Explorer Detectors
- Primordial Black Hole Dark Matter and the LIGO/Virgo observations
- Insights on the astrophysics of supermassive black hole binaries from pulsar timing observations
- The power spectrum on small scales: Robust constraints and comparing PBH methodologies
- Separate Universes Do Not Constrain Primordial Black Hole Formation
- Turning in the landscape: a new mechanism for generating Primordial Black Holes
- A Statistical Solution to the Chaotic, Non-Hierarchical Three-Body Problem
- Non-perturbative non-Gaussianity and primordial black holes
- Probing the equation of state of the early Universe with pulsar timing arrays
- Particle Production During Inflation: Observational Constraints and Signatures
- TEMPO2, a new pulsar timing package. III: Gravitational wave simulation
- Limits on scalar-induced gravitational waves from the stochastic background by pulsar timing array observations
- Low Mass Black Holes from Dark Core Collapse
- Primordial black holes from sound speed resonance in the inflaton-curvaton mixed scenario
- Multiband gravitational-wave event rates and stellar physics
- On the merger rate of primordial black holes: effects of nearest neighbours distribution and clustering
- Implications for the non-Gaussianity of curvature perturbation from pulsar timing arrays
- Resonant multiple peaks in the induced gravitational waves
- Abundance of primordial black holes with local non-Gaussianity in peak theory
- Gravitational Waves from Domain Walls in Pulsar Timing Array Datasets
- The Lowest Mass White Dwarf
- On the Gauge Invariance of Cosmological Gravitational Waves
- Probing non-Gaussianities with the high frequency tail of induced gravitational waves
- Pulsar Timing Array Constraints on the Induced Gravitational Waves
- NANOGrav results and LIGO-Virgo primordial black holes in axion-like curvaton model
- From Bright Binaries To Bumpy Backgrounds: Mapping Realistic Gravitational Wave Skies With Pulsar-Timing Arrays
- Gauge dependence of gravitational waves generated from scalar perturbations
- Whispers from the dark side: Confronting light new physics with NANOGrav data
- Primordial black holes and associated gravitational waves in axion monodromy inflation
- Effects of particle production during inflation
- PBH formation from spherically symmetric hydrodynamical perturbations: a review
- Gravitational waves and stalled satellites from massive galaxy mergers at z <= 1
- First-order Phase Transition interpretation of PTA signal produces solar-mass Black Holes
- Effect of nonlinearity between density and curvature perturbations on the primordial black hole formation
- No massive black holes in the Milky Way halo
- Primordial Black Holes
- Accurate results for primordial black holes from spectra with a distinguished scale
- Have pulsar timing array methods detected a cosmological phase transition?
- Simulation of primordial black hole formation using pseudo-spectral methods
- Kilobyte Cosmic Birefringence from ALP Domain Walls
- Gravitational waves induced by the local-type non-Gaussian curvature perturbations
- Gravitational waves from primordial black holes collisions in binary systems
- Non-Primordial Solar Mass Black Holes
- Gravitational Waves from SMBH Binaries in Light of the NANOGrav 15-Year Data
- The Detected Stochastic Gravitational Waves and Subsolar-Mass Primordial Black Holes
- Implications for the Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the NANOGrav 15-year Data Set
- Implications of Pulsar Timing Array Data for Scalar-Induced Gravitational Waves and Primordial Black Holes: Primordial Non-Gaussianity Considered
- On the gauge dependence of gravitational waves generated at second order from scalar perturbations
- Approximate gauge independence of the induced gravitational wave spectrum
- No-go Theorem for Scalar-Trispectrum-Induced Gravitational Waves
- Growth of Black Holes in the interior of Rotating Neutron Stars
- Peaks and primordial black holes: the effect of non-Gaussianity
- Gravitational waves from dark matter isocurvature
- Search for subsolar-mass binaries in the first half of Advanced LIGO and Virgo's third observing run
- Primordial black hole constraints for curvaton models with predicted large non-Gaussianity
- Prospects for probing gravitational waves from primordial black hole binaries
- The Minimum Testable Abundance of Primordial Black Holes at Future Gravitational-Wave Detectors
- Primordial Black Holes from Broad Spectra: Abundance and Clustering
- Test for the Origin of Solar Mass Black Holes
- Search for scalar induced gravitational waves in the International Pulsar Timing Array Data Release 2 and NANOgrav 12.5 years datasets
- Broad search for gravitational waves from subsolar-mass binaries through LIGO and Virgo's third observing run
- Simulations of PBH formation at the QCD epoch and comparison with the GWTC-3 catalog
- Formation of primordial black holes in an axionlike curvaton model
- Dirac-Born-Infeld realization of sound speed resonance mechanism for primordial black holes
- Primordial black hole formation during the QCD phase transition: threshold, mass distribution and abundance
- Can LIGO Detect Non-Annihilating Dark Matter?
- Transmuted Gravity Wave Signals from Primordial Black Holes
- Probing Small-Scale Power Spectra with Pulsar Timing Arrays
- Primordial black holes in the curvaton model: possible connections to pulsar timing arrays and dark matter
- Hamiltonian approach to 2nd order gauge invariant cosmological perturbations
- Microlensing optical depth and event rate toward the Large Magellanic Cloud based on 20 years of OGLE observations
- One-loop correction to the enhanced curvature perturbation with local-type non-Gaussianity for the formation of primordial black holes
- Contribution of domain wall networks to the CMB power spectrum
- Curbing PBHs with PTAs
- Non-linearities in the tidal Love numbers of black holes
- The detectability of cosmological gravitational-wave backgrounds: a rule of thumb
- Constraints on primordial black holes from LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA O3 events
- Induced Gravitational Wave interpretation of PTA data: a complete study for general equation of state
- Power spectrum of domain-wall network and its implications for isotropic and anisotropic cosmic birefringence
- Constraining first-order phase transitions with curvature perturbations
- Axion-Gauge Dynamics During Inflation as the Origin of Pulsar Timing Array Signals and Primordial Black Holes
- Probing the speed of scalar-induced gravitational waves with pulsar timing arrays
- Searching for Primordial Black Holes with the Einstein Telescope: impact of design and systematics
- A Note on the Abundance of Primordial Black Holes: Use and Misuse of the Metric Curvature Perturbation
- Solving peak theory in the presence of local non-gaussianities
- Testing primordial black hole and measuring the Hubble constant with multiband gravitational-wave observations
- Fermion soliton stars
- Higgs portals to pulsar collapse
- Stellar Wakes from Dark Matter Subhalos
- Primordial black hole mergers from three-body interactions
- Rapid Merger of Binary Primordial Black Holes: an Implication for GW150914
- Cosmological matching conditions for gravitational waves at second order
- Constraining properties of asymmetric dark matter candidates from gravitational-wave observations
- No tension between assembly models of supermassive black hole binaries and pulsar observations
- Primordial Black Holes from Thermal Inflation
- One to rule them all: CMB spectral distortions can probe domain walls, cosmic strings and low scale phase transitions
- Causal Nature and Dynamics of Trapping Horizons in Black Hole Collapse
- The separate universe problem: 40 years on
- The Primordial Black Hole Abundance: The Broader, the Better
- Solar mass black holes from neutron stars and bosonic dark matter
- Lensing constraints on ultradense dark matter halos
- Search for Non-Tensorial Gravitational-Wave Backgrounds in the NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set
- Analysis of a subsolar-mass compact binary candidate from the second observing run of Advanced LIGO
- Primordial black holes and curvature perturbations from false vacuum islands
- Numerical simulation of type II primordial black hole formation
- Revised bounds on local cosmic strings from NANOGrav observations
- Resonant particle production during inflation: a full analytical study
- Enhanced curvature perturbations from spherical domain walls nucleated during inflation
- Quest for CMB spectral distortions to probe the scalar-induced gravitational wave background interpretation of pulsar timing array data
- Using Equation of State Constraints to Classify Low-Mass Compact Binary Mergers
- Dark Matter Minihalos from Primordial Magnetic Fields
- Eccentricity effects on the supermassive black hole gravitational wave background
- Consistency of JWST Black Hole Observations with NANOGrav Gravitational Wave Measurements
- Peak statistics for the primordial black hole abundance
- Can we distinguish the adiabatic fluctuations and isocurvature fluctuations with pulsar timing arrays?
- The Irrelevance of Primordial Black Hole Clustering in the LVK mass range
- Search for a gravitational wave background from primordial black hole binaries using data from the first three LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs
- Constraints on small-scale primordial density fluctuation from cosmic microwave background through dark matter annihilation
- Constraining the impact of standard model phase transitions on primordial black holes
- Near- and sub-solar-mass naked singularities and black holes from transmutation of white dwarfs
- Cosmological Consequences of Domain Walls Biased by Quantum Gravity
- Gravitational effects on fluid dynamics in cosmological first-order phase transitions
- Cosmology and nuclear-physics implications of a subsolar gravitational-wave event
- Signals of merging supermassive primordial black holes in pulsar timing arrays
- Multiple peaks in gravitational waves induced from primordial curvature perturbations with non-Gaussianity
- Reading signatures of supermassive binary black holes in pulsar timing array observations
- Gauge-dependence of Scalar Induced Gravitational Waves
- Statistics of the supermassive black hole gravitational wave background anisotropy
- Scalar-induced gravitational wave from domain wall perturbation