Seven hints that early-time new physics alone is not sufficient to solve the Hubble tension

Abstract

The Hubble tension has now grown to a level of significance which can no longer be ignored and calls for a solution which, despite a huge number of attempts, has so far eluded us. Significant efforts in the literature have focused on early-time modifications of $\Lambda$CDM, introducing new physics operating prior to recombination and reducing the sound horizon. In this opinion paper I argue that early-time new physics alone will always fall short of fully solving the Hubble tension. I base my arguments on seven independent hints, related to 1) the ages of the oldest astrophysical objects, 2) considerations on the sound horizon-Hubble constant degeneracy directions in cosmological data, 3) the important role of cosmic chronometers, 4) a number of ``descending trends'' observed in a wide variety of low-redshift datasets, 5) the early integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect as an early-time consistency test of $\Lambda$CDM, 6) early-Universe physics insensitive and uncalibrated cosmic standard constraints on the matter density, and finally 7) equality wavenumber-based constraints on the Hubble constant from galaxy power spectrum measurements. I argue that a promising way forward should ultimately involve a combination of early- and late-time (but non-local -- in a cosmological sense, i.e. at high redshift) new physics, as well as local (i.e. at $z\sim 0$) new physics, and I conclude by providing reflections with regards to potentially interesting models which may also help with the $S_8$ tension.

39 pages, 18 sub-figures arranged into 11 figures, most of which reproduced (with permission) from other works, many references, "alone" is the keyword here. A very pictorial summary of the whole paper is in Fig. 11, not made by me. Accepted for publication in Universe as an invited opinion/review paper in the special issue "Modified Gravity Approaches to the Tensions of ΛCDM"

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• Observational tests of the conformal osculating Barthel-Kropina cosmological model
• Prospects for joint multiband detection of intermediate-mass black holes by LGWA and the Einstein Telescope
• A robust assessment of the local anisotropy of the Hubble constant
• A Unified Interpretation of Supernova, GRB, and QSO Time Dilation Signals in a Generalized Cosmological Time Framework
• Probing dynamical embeddings in a five-dimensional spacetime in light of DESI BAO
• Exploring the cosmic microwave background dipole direction using gamma-ray bursts
• Compact Objects in 4D Einstein Gauss Bonnet Gravity A Data Based Perspective
• The cosmological Mass Varying Neutrino model in the late universe
• A comprehensive dynamical and phenomenological analysis of structure growth in curvature-modulated coupled quintessence scenario
• Betti Functionals as a Probe for Cosmic Topology
• Particle physics and cosmology intertwined
• Constraints on polynomial inflation under power-law perturbations
• Geometric formulation of $k$-essence and late-time acceleration
• No preference for generalized emergent dark energy from current cosmological data
• Testing the Anton-Schmidt dark energy model with the DESI DR2 measurements
• Running Einstein Constant and a Possible Vacuum State of the Universe
• Searching for a signature of turnaround in galaxy clusters with convolutional neural networks
• Constraints on the gravitational potential from DESI DR2 BAO and its implications for the local void scenario
• Void spin distribution as a powerful probe of ${\sigma }_8$
• Modifying $\Lambda$CDM dynamics via out-of-equilibrium axions: reconciling SH0ES and DESI $H_0$ values
• Late-time cosmological constraints on three holographic dark energy models with DESI DR2 BAO and Type Ia supernovae
• Background dynamics and observational constraints of flat and non-flat $\Lambda (t)$CDM models from $H(z)$ and DESI DR2 BAO measurements
• Background-level reconstruction of scalar-field potentials from dark-energy histories and comparison with analytic potential families
• Impact of the Infrared Cutoff on Structure Formation in Tsallis Holographic Dark Energy
• Resolving the Hubble Tension in the Early Dark Energy Framework with JWST and DESI Data
• Constraints on the Modified Emergent Dark Energy Model Using DESI DR2 BAO
• Hubble tension problem encompassed by phase-space quantum cosmology
• Reconstructing the Type Ia Supernova Absolute Magnitude with Two-Probe Physics-Informed Neural Networks
• Yano-Schrödinger Hyperfluid: Cosmological Implications
• Conditional variational autoencoders for cosmological model discrimination and anomaly detection in cosmic microwave background power spectra
• Constraining Spatial Curvature with Priors from Swampland Conjectures
• How Holographic is the Dark Energy? A Spline Nodal reconstruction approach
• Testing the cosmic distance duality relation using model-independent approach
• Thermodynamic Split Conjecture and an Observational Test for Cosmological Entropy