Planet populations inferred from debris discs: insights from 178 debris systems in the ISPY, LEECH and LIStEN planet-hunting surveys

Abstract

We know little about the outermost exoplanets in planetary systems, because our detection methods are insensitive to moderate-mass planets on wide orbits. However, debris discs can probe the outer-planet population, because dynamical modelling of observed discs can reveal properties of perturbing planets. We use four sculpting and stirring arguments to infer planet properties in 178 debris-disc systems from the ISPY, LEECH and LIStEN planet-hunting surveys. Similar analyses are often conducted for individual discs, but we consider a large sample in a consistent manner. We aim to predict the population of wide-separation planets, gain insight into the formation and evolution histories of planetary systems, and determine the feasibility of detecting these planets in the near future. We show that a `typical' cold debris disc likely requires a Neptune- to Saturn-mass planet at 10-100 au, with some needing Jupiter-mass perturbers. Our predicted planets are currently undetectable, but modest detection-limit improvements (e.g. from JWST) should reveal many such perturbers. We find that planets thought to be perturbing debris discs at late times are similar to those inferred to be forming in protoplanetary discs, so these could be the same population if newly formed planets do not migrate as far as currently thought. Alternatively, young planets could rapidly sculpt debris before migrating inwards, meaning that the responsible planets are more massive (and located further inwards) than debris-disc studies assume. We combine self-stirring and size-distribution modelling to show that many debris discs cannot be self-stirred without having unreasonably high masses; planet- or companion-stirring may therefore be the dominant mechanism in many (perhaps all) debris discs. Finally, we provide catalogues of planet predictions, and identify promising targets for future planet searches.

arXiv comment41 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in A&A

References in corpus (203)

• Galactic Stellar and Substellar Initial Mass Function
• Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA)
• Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Giant Planets, Oscillations, Rotation, and Massive Stars
• Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Binaries, Pulsations, and Explosions
• MultiNest: an efficient and robust Bayesian inference tool for cosmology and particle physics
• MESA Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST). I: Solar-Scaled Models
• Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Convective Boundaries, Element Diffusion, and Massive Star Explosions
• A new extensive library of PHOENIX stellar atmospheres and synthetic spectra
• MESA Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST) 0: Methods for the construction of stellar isochrones
• Direct Imaging of Multiple Planets Orbiting the Star HR 8799
• Estimating distances from parallaxes IV: Distances to 1.33 billion stars in Gaia Data Release 2
• X-ray spectral modelling of the AGN obscuring region in the CDFS: Bayesian model selection and catalogue
• Evolutionary models for cool brown dwarfs and extrasolar giant planets. The case of HD 20945
• Improved Age Estimation for Solar-Type Dwarfs Using Activity-Rotation Diagnostics
• Evolutionary models for very-low-mass stars and brown dwarfs with dusty atmospheres
• Images of a fourth planet orbiting HR 8799
• Catalog of Nearby Exoplanets
• A giant planet imaged in the disk of the young star Beta Pictoris
• New constraints on the chemical evolution of the solar neighbourhood and Galactic disc(s). Improved astrophysical parameters for the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey
• SB9: The Ninth Catalogue of Spectroscopic Binary Orbits
• Discovery and spectroscopy of the young Jovian planet 51 Eri b with the Gemini Planet Imager
• BANYAN. XI. The BANYAN $\Sigma$ multivariate Bayesian algorithm to identify members of young associations within 150 pc
• A self-consistent, absolute isochronal age scale for young moving groups in the solar neighbourhood
• Origin of the Structure of the Kuiper Belt during a Dynamical Instability in the Orbits of Uranus and Neptune
• The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey: Giant Planet and Brown Dwarf Demographics From 10-100 AU
• The Star-formation History and Accretion-Disk Fraction Among the K-Type Members of the Scorpius-Centaurus OB Association
• How Observations of Circumstellar Disk Asymmetries Can Reveal Hidden Planets: Pericenter Glow and its Application to the HR 4796 Disk
• The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets XVIII. An Earth-mass planet in the GJ 581 planetary system
• Stellar and substellar companions of nearby stars from Gaia DR2 - Binarity from proper motion anomaly
• An extrasolar planetary system with three Neptune-mass planets
• The Disk Substructures at High Angular Resolution Project (DSHARP): VII. The Planet-Disk Interactions Interpretation
• The Disk Substructures at High Angular Resolution Project (DSHARP) VI: Dust trapping in thin-ringed protoplanetary disks
• Debris disks in main sequence binary systems
• A planet on an inclined orbit as an explanation of the warp in the Beta Pictoris disk
• The California-Kepler Survey V. Peas in a Pod: Planets in a Kepler Multi-planet System are Similar in Size and Regularly Spaced
• A new set of atmosphere and evolution models for cool T-Y brown dwarfs and giant exoplanets
• Sintering-induced Dust Ring Formation in Protoplanetary Disks: Application to the HL Tau Disk
• Stellar Activity Masquerading as Planets in the Habitable Zone of the M dwarf Gliese 581
• The Tucana/Horologium, Columba, AB Doradus, and Argus Associations: New Members and Dusty Debris Disks
• A planet within the debris disk around the pre-main-sequence star AU Microscopii
• Variations on Debris Disks: Icy Planet Formation at 30-150 AU for 1-3 Solar Mass Main Sequence Stars
• Discovery of Two T Dwarf Companions with the Spitzer Space Telescope
• The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets. VI. A Neptune-mass planet around the nearby M dwarf Gl 581
• The VAST Survey - I. Companions and the unexpected X-ray detection of B6-A7 stars
• Probing for Exoplanets Hiding in Dusty Debris Disks: Disk Imaging, Characterization, and Exploration with HST/STIS Multi-Roll Coronagraphy
• Fomalhaut's Debris Disk and Planet: Constraining the Mass of Fomalhaut b From Disk Morphology
• Lithium abundances in nearby FGK dwarf and subgiant stars: internal destruction, Galactic chemical evolution, and exoplanets
• DUst Around NEarby Stars. The survey observational results
• Theoretical models of planetary system formation: mass vs semi-major axis
• Long-Term Collisional Evolution of Debris Disks
• Debris Disks: Seeing Dust, Thinking of Planetesimals and Planets
• Asteroid Belts in Debris Disk Twins: VEGA and FOMALHAUT
• Steady-State Size Distributions for Collisional Populations: Analytical Solution with Size-Dependent Strength
• Debris disc stirring by secular perturbations from giant planets
• The Updated Multiple Star Catalog
• Nine localised deviations from Keplerian rotation in the DSHARP circumstellar disks: Kinematic evidence for protoplanets carving the gaps
• Exocometary gas in the HD 181327 debris ring
• The Collisional Evolution of Debris Disks
• The Gemini NICI Planet-Finding Campaign: The Frequency of Giant Planets around Young B and A Stars
• Resolved Debris Discs Around A Stars in the Herschel DEBRIS Survey
• The newborn planet population emerging from ring-like structures in discs
• The Ages of Early-Type Stars: Strömgren Photometric Methods Calibrated, Validated, Tested, and Applied to Hosts and Prospective Hosts of Directly Imaged Exoplanets
• The Age and Age Spread of the Praesepe and Hyades Clusters: a Consistent, ~800 Myr Picture from Rotating Stellar Models
• A Candidate Substellar Companion to HR 7329
• Epsilon Eridani's Planetary Debris Disk: Structure and Dynamics based on Spitzer and CSO Observations
• Dynamical Constraints on the HR 8799 Planets with GPI
• ALMA observations of the molecular gas in the debris disk of the 30 Myr old star HD 21997
• Herschel imaging of 61 Vir: implications for the prevalence of debris in low-mass planetary systems
• High-precision abundances of elements in solar-type stars. Evidence of two distinct sequences in abundance-age relations
• SONS: The JCMT legacy survey of debris discs in the submillimetre
• The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets. XXXVIII. Bayesian re-analysis of three systems. New super-Earths, unconfirmed signals, and magnetic cycles
• A Super-Earth and two Neptunes Orbiting the Nearby Sun-like star 61 Virginis
• Debris Disks in the Scorpius-Centaurus OB Association Resolved by ALMA
• Molecular gas in debris disks around young A-type stars
• The Carina-Near Moving Group
• New constraints on the planetary system around the young active star AU Mic. Two transiting warm Neptunes near mean-motion resonance
• Discovery of extreme asymmetry in the debris disk surrounding HD 15115
• Forever alone? Testing single eccentric planetary systems for multiple companions
• Azimuthal asymmetries in the debris disk around HD61005
• The Solar Neighborhood XXX: Fomalhaut C
• ALMA observations of the $\eta$ Corvi debris disc: inward scattering of CO-rich exocomets by a chain of 3-30 M${}_{\oplus }$ planets?
• The dust grain size - stellar luminosity trend in debris discs
• Direct detection of exoplanets in the 3 -- 10 micron range with E-ELT/METIS
• First scattered light images of debris disks around HD 53143 and HD 139664
• Gravitational Stirring in Planetary Debris Disks
• Dynamical evolution of an eccentric planet and a less massive debris disc
• Meeting the Cool Neighbors X: Ultracool dwarfs from the 2MASS All-Sky Data Release
• The Nearby, Young, Argus Association: Membership, Age, and Dusty Debris Disks
• Color difference makes a difference: four planet candidates around tau Ceti
• Planetary population synthesis
• Binaries Among Debris Disk Stars
• Dependence of a planet's chaotic zone on particle eccentricity: the shape of debris disc inner edges
• A gap in the planetesimal disc around HD 107146 and asymmetric warm dust emission revealed by ALMA
• A DEBRIS Disk Around The Planet Hosting M-star GJ581 Spatially Resolved with Herschel
• Revealing Asymmetries in the HD 181327 Debris Disk: A Recent Massive Collision or ISM Warping
• Does the presence of planets affect the frequency and properties of extrasolar Kuiper Belts? Results from the Herschel DEBRIS and DUNES surveys
• Astrometric orbits of SB9 stars
• Age Determination for 346 Nearby Stars in the Herschel DEBRIS Survey
• An Empirical Planetesimal Belt Radius - Stellar Luminosity Relation
• Resolving the Planetesimal Belt of HR 8799 with ALMA
• A Self-Consistent Model of the Circumstellar Debris Created by a Giant Hypervelocity Impact in the HD172555 System
• Planetary chaotic zone clearing: destinations and timescales
• Solution to the debris disc mass problem: planetesimals are born small?
• Variations on Debris Disks II. Icy Planet Formation as a Function of the Bulk Properties and Initial Sizes of Planetesimals
• The Decay of Debris Disks around Solar-Type Stars
• The Correlation Between Metallicity and Debris Disk mass
• The CORALIE survey for southern extrasolar planets XVII. New and updated long period and massive planets
• Imaging Young Planets From Ground and Space
• Lithium abundance patterns of late-F stars: an in-depth analysis of the lithium desert
• Stirring in massive, young debris discs from spatially resolved Herschel images
• The LEECH Exoplanet Imaging Survey: Limits on Planet Occurrence Rates Under Conservative Assumptions
• Radial Surface Density Profiles of Gas and Dust in the Debris Disk around 49 Ceti
• SPHERE/SHINE reveals concentric rings in the debris disk of HIP 73145
• Coplanar Circumbinary Debris Disks
• Rotational velocities of nearby young stars
• Locating the planetesimals belts in the multiple-planet systems HD 128311, HD 202206, HD 82943 and HR 8799
• The ELODIE survey for northern extra--solar planets I. 6 new extra--solar planet candidates
• The Ages of A-Stars I: Interferometric Observations and Age Estimates for Stars in the Ursa Major Moving Group
• ALMA observations of the debris disk around the young Solar Analog HD 107146
• The LEECH Exoplanet Imaging Survey. Further constraints on the planet architecture of the HR 8799 system
• Gap Clearing by Planets in a Collisional Debris Disk
• High-spatial-resolution imaging of thermal emission from debris disks
• The Northern Arc of $\epsilon$ Eridani's Debris Ring as Seen by ALMA
• New low-mass members of the Octans stellar association and an updated 30-40 Myr lithium age
• The Mass of Stirring Bodies in the AU Mic Debris Disk Inferred from Resolved Vertical Structure
• A gap in HD 92945's broad planetesimal disc revealed by ALMA
• An exoplanet in orbit around tau^1 Gruis
• Search for associations containing young stars (SACY) VII. New stellar and substellar candidate members in the young associations
• The Epsilon Eridani System Resolved by Millimeter Interferometry
• ALMA continuum observations of a 30 Myr old gaseous debris disk around HD 21997
• New millimeter CO observations of the gas-rich debris disks 49 Cet and HD 32297
• Stellar Multiplicity and Debris Disks: An Unbiased Sample
• The SHARDDS survey: first resolved image of the HD114082 debris disk in Lower Centaurus Crux with SPHERE
• BAFFLES: Bayesian Ages for Field Lower-Mass Stars
• A statistically significant lack of debris discs in medium separation binary systems
• ALMA Detection of Extended Millimeter Halos in the HD 32297 and HD 61005 Debris Disks
• Self-Stirring of Debris Discs by Planetesimals Formed by Pebble Concentration
• A detailed characterization of HR 8799's debris disk with ALMA in Band 7
• The unseen planets of double belt debris disk systems
• An Exo-Kuiper Belt and An Extended Halo around HD 191089 in Scattered Light
• First scattered-light images of the gas-rich debris disk around 49 Ceti
• Double-ringed debris discs could be the work of eccentric planets: explaining the strange morphology of HD 107146
• Debris Disc Constraints on Planetesimal Formation
• Formation of Gaps in Self-Gravitating Debris Disks by Secular Resonance in a Single-planet System I: A Simplified Model
• Belt(s) of debris resolved around the Sco-Cen star HIP 67497
• Multiple Rings of Millimeter Dust Emission in the HD 15115 Debris Disk
• A Multiplicity Census of Intermediate-Mass Stars in Scorpius-Centaurus
• The Scattered Disc of HR 8799
• From scattered-light to millimeter emission: A comprehensive view of the Gyr-old system of HD 202628 and its eccentric debris ring
• The Debris Disk of Solar Analogue $\tau$ Ceti: Herschel Observations and Dynamical Simulations of the Proposed Multiplanet System
• ISPY -- NACO Imaging Survey for Planets around Young stars: Survey description and results from the first 2.5 years of observations
• Direct imaging of sub-Jupiter mass exoplanets with James Webb Space Telescope coronagraphy
• A $75\%$ Occurrence Rate of Debris Discs around F stars in the $\beta$ Pic Moving Group
• Survey of planetesimal belts with ALMA: gas detected around the Sun-like star HD 129590
• The Peculiar Debris Disk of HD 111520 as Resolved by the Gemini Planet Imager
• Multi-Wavelength Modelling of the Beta Leo Debris Disc: 1, 2 or 3 planetesimal populations?
• Constraining the orbits of sub-stellar companions imaged over short orbital arcs
• Can eccentric debris disks be long-lived? A first numerical investigation and application to ${\zeta }^2$ Reticuli
• From Pebbles and Planetesimals to Planets and Dust: the Protoplanetary Disk--Debris Disk Connection
• Discovery of an Edge-on Debris Disk with a Dust Ring and an Outer Disk Wing-tilt Asymmetry
• Resolved Imaging of the HD191089 Debris Disc
• A Super-Earth Orbiting the Nearby Sun-like Star HD 1461
• High resolution ALMA and HST images of q${}^1$ Eri: an asymmetric debris disc with an eccentric Jupiter
• Constraining the Orbit and Mass of epsilon Eridani b with Radial Velocities, Hipparcos IAD-Gaia DR2 Astrometry, and Multi-epoch Vortex Coronagraphy Upper Limits
• Bringing "The Moth" to Light: A Planet-Sculpting Scenario for the HD 61005 Debris Disk
• ALMA Observations of the Debris Disk of Solar Analogue Tau Ceti
• The discovery of new warm debris disks around F-type stars
• Constraining planetesimal stirring: how sharp are debris disc edges?
• Exoplanets with ELT-METIS I: Estimating the direct imaging exoplanet yield around stars within 6.5 parsecs
• New debris disks in nearby young moving groups
• ALMA observations of the multiplanet system 61 Vir: What lies outside super-Earth systems?
• Is the HD 15115 inner disk really asymmetrical ?
• Extrasolar planets and brown dwarfs around A--F type stars. VIII. A giant planet orbiting the young star HD113337
• Resonant Kuiper Belt Objects -- a Review
• Theoretical models of planetary system formation. II. Post-formation evolution
• Dust Populations in the Iconic Vega Planetary System Resolved by ALMA
• Chemo-kinematic ages of eccentric-planet-hosting M dwarf stars
• Gas trapping of hot dust around main-sequence stars
• Fomalhaut b could be massive and sculpting the narrow, eccentric debris disc, if in mean-motion resonance with it
• Empty gaps? Depleting annular regions in debris discs by secular resonance with a two-planet system
• Carbon monoxide gas produced by a giant impact in the inner region of a young system
• An updated visual orbit of the directly-imaged exoplanet 51 Eridani b and prospects for a dynamical mass measurement with Gaia
• The interplay between radiation pressure and the photoelectric instability in optically thin disks of gas and dust
• Dynamical models to explain observations with SPHERE in planetary systems with double debris belts
• The REASONS Survey: Resolved Millimeter Observations of a Large Debris Disk Around the Nearby F Star HD 170773
• Dynamical Simulations of the Planetary System HD69830
• Insights on the dynamical history of the Fomalhaut system - Investigating the Fom c hypothesis
• On the cavity of a debris disc carved by a giant planet
• An Integrated Analysis with Predictions on the Architecture of the tau Ceti Planetary System, Including a Habitable Zone Planet
• The debris disk around gamma Doradus resolved with Herschel
• Shaping HR8799's outer dust belt with an unseen planet
• Dust Spreading in Debris Discs: Do Small Grains Cling on to Their Birth Environment?
• The big sibling of AU Mic: a cold dust-rich debris disk around CP-72 2713 in the $\beta$ Pic moving group
• Mutual inclinations between giant planets and their debris discs in HD 113337 and HD 38529
• The HOSTS survey: evidence for an extended dust disk and constraints on the presence of giant planets in the Habitable Zone of $\beta$ Leo
• Numerical predictions for planets in the debris discs of HD 202628 and HD 207129
• Resolving the outer ring of HD 38206 using ALMA and constraining limits on planets in the system
• Near-Infrared Image of the Debris Disk around HD 15115
• Architecture of planetary systems predicted from protoplanetary disks observed with ALMA I: mass of the possible planets embedded in the dust gap
• ALMA imaging of the M-dwarf Fomalhaut C's debris disc
• ISPY -- NaCo Imaging Survey for Planets around Young stars. Discovery of an M dwarf in the gap between HD 193571 and its debris ring
• Nature or nurture of coplanar Tatooines: the aligned circumbinary Kuiper belt analogue around HD 131511
• Multi-wavelength, spatially resolved modelling of HD 48682's debris disc

Cited by in corpus (33)

• Astrometric Accelerations as Dynamical Beacons: A Giant Planet Imaged Inside the Debris Disk of the Young Star AF Lep
• The clumpy structure of $\epsilon$ Eridani's debris disc revisited by ALMA
• Disc population synthesis: Decrease in the solid mass reservoir through pebble drift
• The PLATO field selection process. II. Characterization of LOPS2, the first long-pointing field
• ISPY-NACO Imaging Survey for Planets around Young stars. The demographics of forming planets embedded in protoplanetary disks
• Atmospheric properties of AF Lep b with forward modeling
• ALMA Images the Eccentric HD 53143 Debris Disk
• Stirred but not shaken: a multi-wavelength view of HD 16743's debris disc
• Multiwavelength Vertical Structure in the AU Mic Debris Disk: Characterizing the Collisional Cascade
• The ALMA survey to Resolve exoKuiper belt Substructures (ARKS) II. The radial structure of debris discs
• RVSPY -- Radial Velocity Survey for Planets around Young Stars. Target characterization and high-cadence survey
• Inner edges of planetesimal belts: collisionally eroded or truncated?
• Non-thermal radio continuum emission from young nearby stars
• Hot exozodis: cometary supply without trapping is unlikely to be the mechanism
• The SHARDDS survey: limits on planet occurrence rates based on point sources analysis via the Auto-RSM framework
• The ALMA survey to Resolve exoKuiper belt Substructures (ARKS) V: Comparison between scattered light and thermal emission
• X-Shooter Survey of Young Intermediate Mass Stars -- I. Stellar Characterization and Disc Evolution
• The ALMA survey to Resolve exoKuiper belt Substructures (ARKS) IV: CO gas imaging and overview
• Characterization of debris disks observed with SPHERE
• A Mixed Stirring Mechanism for Debris Discs with Giant and Dwarf Planetary Perturbations
• Abundance analysis of stars hosting gas-rich debris disks
• Planetary system architectures with low-mass inner planets: Direct imaging exploration of mature systems beyond 1 au
• The first scattered light images of HD 112810, a faint debris disk in the Sco-Cen association
• The ALMA survey to Resolve exoKuiper belt Substructures (ARKS) VIII: A dust arc and non-Keplerian gas kinematics in HD 121617
• Eccentric debris belts reveal the dynamical history of the companion exoplanet
• Discovery of carbon monoxide emission from five debris disks around young A-type stars
• Testing the Impact of Planet-stirring, Self-stirring, and Mixed-stirring on Debris Disc Architecture: A Case Study of HD 16743
• Diversity of Exoplanets
• Vertical Structure of Protoplanetary Disks in Scattered Light: A large sample analysis
• Direct Imaging Discovery of Giant Exoplanet $\beta$ Pictoris d: A Decade-Long Game of Hide-and-Seek
• HD 44892: The youngest (or oldest?) gas-harbouring debris disc around an intermediate mass star
• Resolving the large exoKuiper belt of the HD 126062 debris disc and extended gas emission in its vicinity
• Study of the migration of Earth-like planets in planetesimal disks and the formation of debris disks