Emulating Simulations of Cosmic Dawn for 21cm Power Spectrum Constraints on Cosmology, Reionization, and X-ray Heating

Abstract

Current and upcoming radio interferometric experiments are aiming to make a statistical characterization of the high-redshift 21cm fluctuation signal spanning the hydrogen reionization and X-ray heating epochs of the universe. However, connecting 21cm statistics to underlying physical parameters is complicated by the theoretical challenge of modeling the relevant physics at computational speeds quick enough to enable exploration of the high dimensional and weakly constrained parameter space. In this work, we use machine learning algorithms to build a fast emulator that mimics expensive simulations of the 21cm signal across a wide parameter space to high precision. We embed our emulator within a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo framework, enabling it to explore the posterior distribution over a large number of model parameters, including those that govern the Epoch of Reionization, the Epoch of X-ray Heating, and cosmology. As a worked example, we use our emulator to present an updated parameter constraint forecast for the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array experiment, showing that its characterization of a fiducial 21cm power spectrum will considerably narrow the allowed parameter space of reionization and heating parameters, and could help strengthen Planck's constraints on ${\sigma }_8$. We provide both our generalized emulator code and its implementation specifically for 21cm parameter constraints as publicly available software.

22 pages, 9 figures; accepted to ApJ

References in corpus (34)

• UV Luminosity Functions at redshifts z~4 to z~10: 10000 Galaxies from HST Legacy Fields
• Cosmic Reionization and Early Star-Forming Galaxies: A Joint Analysis of New Constraints from Planck and Hubble Space Telescope
• Model-independent evidence in favor of an end to reionization by z~6
• Efficient Simulations of Early Structure Formation and Reionization
• Evidence of patchy hydrogen reionization from an extreme Ly$\alpha$ trough below redshift six
• Upper limits on the 21-cm Epoch of Reionization power spectrum from one night with LOFAR
• The Global 21 Centimeter Background from High Redshifts
• How accurately can 21 cm tomography constrain cosmology?
• The Epoch of Reionization Window: I. Mathematical Formalism
• 21 cm fluctuations from inhomogeneous X-ray heating before reionization
• 21CMMC: an MCMC analysis tool enabling astrophysical parameter studies of the cosmic 21 cm signal
• The First Billion Years Project: The escape fraction of ionizing photons in the epoch of reionization
• The Epoch of Reionization Window: II. Statistical Methods for Foreground Wedge Reduction
• Simulating Cosmic Reionization at Large Scales II: the 21-cm Emission Features and Statistical Signals
• Inside-out or Outside-in: The topology of reionization in the photon-starved regime suggested by Lyman-alpha forest data
• Cosmic Reionization On Computers I. Design and Calibration of Simulations
• First Season MWA EoR Power Spectrum Results at Redshift 7
• The Global 21-cm Signal in the Context of the High-z Galaxy Luminosity Function
• The Scale of the Problem : Recovering Images of Reionization with GMCA
• Cosmic Calibration: Constraints from the Matter Power Spectrum and the Cosmic Microwave Background
• 21 cm signal from cosmic dawn: Imprints of spin temperature fluctuations and peculiar velocities
• Emulating the CFHTLenS Weak Lensing data: Cosmological Constraints from moments and Minkowski functionals
• Fast Large-Scale Reionization Simulations
• The simulated 21 cm signal during the epoch of reionization : full modeling of the Ly-alpha pumping
• Cosmic Calibration
• Analysing the 21cm signal from the Epoch of Reionization with artificial neural networks
• High Mass X-ray Binaries and the Cosmic 21-cm Signal: Impact of Host Galaxy Absorption
• Multi-redshift limits on the 21cm power spectrum from PAPER
• The rich complexity of 21-cm fluctuations produced by the first stars
• Erasing the variable: Empirical foreground discovery for global 21 cm spectrum experiments
• Background reionization history from omniscopes
• Models of the Cosmological 21 cm Signal from the Epoch of Reionization Calibrated with Lyman-alpha and CMB Data
• Lunar occultation of the diffuse radio sky: LOFAR measurements between 35 and 80 MHz
• Pico: Parameters for the Impatient Cosmologist

Cited by in corpus (88)

• Fundamental Physics with the Square Kilometre Array
• Inferring the astrophysics of reionization and cosmic dawn from galaxy luminosity functions and the 21-cm signal
• Data Analysis for Precision 21 cm Cosmology
• First Results from HERA Phase I: Upper Limits on the Epoch of Reionization 21 cm Power Spectrum
• Improved Constraints on the 21 cm EoR Power Spectrum and the X-Ray Heating of the IGM with HERA Phase I Observations
• COSMOPOWER: emulating cosmological power spectra for accelerated Bayesian inference from next-generation surveys
• HERA Phase I Limits on the Cosmic 21-cm Signal: Constraints on Astrophysics and Cosmology During the Epoch of Reionization
• Massive optimal data compression and density estimation for scalable, likelihood-free inference in cosmology
• First Multimessenger Observations of a Neutron Star Merger
• Constraining the intergalactic medium at $z\approx$ 9.1 using LOFAR Epoch of Reionization observations
• Probing the Small-Scale Matter Power Spectrum with Large-Scale 21-cm Data
• 21CMMC with a 3D light-cone: the impact of the co-evolution approximation on the astrophysics of reionisation and cosmic dawn
• Emulation of reionization simulations for Bayesian inference of astrophysics parameters using neural networks
• Tight Constraints on the Excess Radio Background at $z=9.1$ from LOFAR
• Constraining the primordial black hole abundance with 21cm cosmology
• Mitigating Internal Instrument Coupling for 21 cm Cosmology I: Temporal and Spectral Modeling in Simulations
• Mitigating Internal Instrument Coupling II: A Method Demonstration with the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array
• Emulating the Global 21-cm Signal from Cosmic Dawn and Reionization
• Simulation-Based Inference of Reionization Parameters From 3D Tomographic 21 cm Lightcone Images
• Robust Velocity-induced Acoustic Oscillations at Cosmic Dawn
• Evaluating machine learning techniques for predicting power spectra from reionization simulations
• Gaussian Process Foreground Subtraction and Power Spectrum Estimation for 21 cm Cosmology
• Charting the Parameter Space of the 21-cm Power Spectrum
• An Effective Model for the Cosmic-Dawn 21-cm Signal
• Results from EDGES High-Band: II. Constraints on Parameters of Early Galaxies
• Global 21-cm signal extraction from foreground and instrumental effects I: Pattern recognition framework for separation using training sets
• Evaluating the QSO contribution to the 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn
• Machine learning astrophysics from 21 cm lightcones: impact of network architectures and signal contamination
• Reconstruction of the neutrino mass as a function of redshift
• Implicit Likelihood Inference of Reionization Parameters from the 21 cm Power Spectrum
• Removing Astrophysics in 21 cm maps with Neural Networks
• Characterizing the Epoch of Reionization with the small-scale CMB: constraints on the optical depth and physical parameters
• Deep learning approach for identification of HII regions during reionization in 21-cm observations
• Exploring the likelihood of the 21-cm power spectrum with simulation-based inference
• 21cmEMU: an emulator of 21cmFAST summary observables
• Machine Learning for Observational Cosmology
• Improving constraints on the reionization parameters using 21-cm bispectrum
• Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) Phase II Deployment and Commissioning
• 21cmVAE: A Very Accurate Emulator of the 21-cm Global Signal
• Constraining the X-ray heating and reionization using 21-cm power spectra with Marginal Neural Ratio Estimation
• Multi-Fidelity Emulation for the Matter Power Spectrum using Gaussian Processes
• Cosmological Constraints from the eBOSS Lyman-$\alpha$ Forest using the PRIYA Simulations
• Parameter Inference for Weak Lensing using Gaussian Processes and MOPED
• CosmoReionMC: A package for estimating cosmological and astrophysical parameters using CMB, Lyman-α absorption and global 21 cm data
• How proper are Bayesian models in the astronomical literature?
• Improved supervised learning methods for EoR parameters reconstruction
• Studying Cosmic Dawn using redshifted HI 21-cm signal: A brief review
• X-ray ionization of the intergalactic medium by quasars
• 21cmfish: Fisher-matrix framework for fast parameter forecasts from the cosmic 21-cm signal
• The impact of non-Gaussianity on the Epoch of Reionization parameter forecast using 21-cm power spectrum measurements
• Inferring Astrophysics and Dark Matter Properties from 21cm Tomography using Deep Learning
• A unified framework for 21cm tomography sample generation and parameter inference with Progressively Growing GANs
• Likelihood-free Inference with Mixture Density Network
• Systematic uncertainties in models of the cosmic dawn
• Bayesian Model Selection with Future 21cm Observations of The Epoch of Reionisation
• Methods of Error Estimation for Delay Power Spectra in $21\text{cm}$ Cosmology
• Constraining the Reionization History using Bayesian Normalizing Flows
• 21cmFirstCLASS I. Cosmological tool for $\Lambda$CDM and beyond
• Constraining the Epoch of Reionization With Highly Dispersed Fast Radio Bursts
• Exploring the cosmic dawn and epoch of reionization with 21cm line
• Variations in fundamental constants at the cosmic dawn
• Quantifying Density-Ionization Correlations with the 21cm Power Spectrum
• Probing Small Scale Primordial Power Spectrum with 21cm Line Global Signal
• The Impact of Realistic Foreground and Instrument Models on 21cm Epoch of Reionization Experiments
• The First Billion Years in Seconds: An Effective Model for the 21-cm Signal with Population III Stars
• Emulation of the Cosmic Dawn 21-cm Power Spectrum and Classification of Excess Radio Models Using an Artificial Neural Network
• The multi-frequency angular power spectrum in parameter studies of the cosmic 21-cm signal
• A galaxy-free phenomenological model for the 21-cm power spectrum during reionization
• A Multi-Fidelity Emulator for the Lyman-$\alpha$ Forest Flux Power Spectrum
• Estimation of HII Bubble Size Distribution from 21cm Power Spectrum with Artificial Neural Networks
• Efficient exploration of reionization parameters for the upcoming 21 cm observations using a photon conserving semi-numerical model SCRIPT
• A fast method of reionization parameter space exploration using GPR trained SCRIPT
• Predicting 21cm-line map from Lyman $\alpha$ emitter distribution with Generative Adversarial Networks
• Analysing the Epoch of Reionization with three-point correlation functions and machine learning techniques
• Lyman Alpha Emitters and the 21cm Power Spectrum as Probes of Density-Ionization Correlation in the Epoch of Reionization
• MF-Box: Multi-fidelity and multi-scale emulation for the matter power spectrum
• Topology of Reionisation times: concepts, measurements and comparisons to gaussian random field predictions
• Predictions of the 21cm global signal in the JWST and ALMA era
• DeepSSM: an emulator of gravitational wave spectra from sound waves during cosmological first-order phase transitions
• From ANN to BNN: Inferring Reionization Parameters using Uncertainty-aware Emulators of 21-cm Summaries
• Artificial Neural Networks for Galaxy Clustering. Learning from the two-point correlation function of BOSS galaxies
• Classification of Radio Backgrounds at Cosmic Dawn and 21 cm Signal Confirmation Using Neural Networks
• Nonlinear reconstruction of 21cm global signal from 21cm power spectrum with artificial neural networks
• A bubble size distribution model for the Epoch of Reionization
• The 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn: metallicity dependence of high mass X-ray binaries
• Simulation based inference of the ionization history from the 2D 21 cm power spectrum
• From Dark Matter Minihalos to Large-Scale Radiative Feedback: A Self-Consistent 3D Simulation of the First Stars and Galaxies using Neural Networks
• Accelerating reionization constraints: An ANN-emulator framework for the SCRIPT Semi-numerical Model