The impact of non-Gaussianity on the Epoch of Reionization parameter forecast using 21-cm power spectrum measurements

Abstract

Measurements of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal hold the potential to constrain models of reionization. In this paper we consider a reionization model with three astrophysical parameters namely (1) the minimum halo mass which can host ionizing sources, $M_{\min }$, (2) the number of ionizing photons escaping into the IGM per baryon within the halo, $N_{\mathrm{ion}}$ and (3) the mean free path of the ionizing photons within the IGM, $R_{\mathrm{mfp}}$. We predict the accuracy with which these parameters can be measured from future observations of the 21-cm power spectrum (PS) using the upcoming SKA-Low. Unlike several earlier works, we account for the non-Gaussianity of the inherent EoR 21-cm signal. Considering cosmic variance only and assuming that foregrounds are completely removed, we find that non-Gaussianity increases the volume of the $1\sigma$ error ellipsoid of the parameters by a factor of $133$ relative to the Gaussian predictions, the orientation is also different. The ratio of the volume of error ellipsoids is $1.65$ and $2.67$ for observation times of $1024$ and $10000$ hours respectively, when all the $\mathbf{k}$ modes within the foreground wedge are excluded. With foreground wedge excluded and for $1024$ hours, the 1D marginalized errors are $(\Delta M_{\min }/M_{\min },\Delta N_{\mathrm{ion}}/N_{\mathrm{ion}},\Delta R_{\mathrm{mfp}}/R_{\mathrm{mfp}})=(6.54,2.71,7.75)\times 10^{-2}$ which are respectively $2\%$, $5\%$ and $23\%$ larger than the respective Gaussian predictions. The impact of non-Gaussianity increases for longer observations, and it is particularly important for $R_{\mathrm{mfp}}$.

arXiv comment16 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

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