Constraining the epoch of reionization with the variance statistic: simulations of the LOFAR case

Abstract

Several experiments are underway to detect the cosmic redshifted 21-cm signal from neutral hydrogen from the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). Due to their very low signal-to-noise ratio, these observations aim for a statistical detection of the signal by measuring its power spectrum. We investigate the extraction of the variance of the signal as a first step towards detecting and constraining the global history of the EoR. Signal variance is the integral of the signal's power spectrum, and it is expected to be measured with a high significance. We demonstrate this through results from a simulation and parameter estimation pipeline developed for the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR)-EoR experiment. We show that LOFAR should be able to detect the EoR in 600 hours of integration using the variance statistic. Additionally, the redshift ($z_r$) and duration ($\Delta z$) of reionization can be constrained assuming a parametrization. We use an EoR simulation of $z_r=7.68$ and $\Delta z=0.43$ to test the pipeline. We are able to detect the simulated signal with a significance of 4 standard deviations and extract the EoR parameters as $z_r=7.72_{-0.18}^{+0.37}$ and $\Delta z=0.53_{-0.23}^{+0.12}$ in 600 hours, assuming that systematic errors can be adequately controlled. We further show that the significance of detection and constraints on EoR parameters can be improved by measuring the cross-variance of the signal by cross-correlating consecutive redshift bins.

13 pages, 14 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

References in corpus (13)

• Cosmology at Low Frequencies: The 21 cm Transition and the High-Redshift Universe
• Efficient Simulations of Early Structure Formation and Reionization
• Foreground simulations for the LOFAR - Epoch of Reionization Experiment
• Evolution of the 21 cm signal throughout cosmic history
• The Scale of the Problem : Recovering Images of Reionization with GMCA
• Power spectrum extraction for redshifted 21-cm epoch of reionization experiments: the LOFAR case
• Non-parametric foreground subtraction for 21cm epoch of reionization experiments
• Fast Large-Scale Reionization Simulations
• The high-redshift star formation rate derived from GRBs: possible origin and cosmic reionization
• Current models of the observable consequences of cosmic reionization and their detectability
• Distinguishing models of reionization using future radio observations of 21-cm 1-point statistics
• Measuring the Redshift of Reionization with a Modest Array of Low-Frequency Dipoles
• The LOFAR EoR Data Model: (I) Effects of Noise and Instrumental Corruptions on the 21-cm Reionization Signal-Extraction Strategy

Cited by in corpus (55)

• Upper limits on the 21-cm Epoch of Reionization power spectrum from one night with LOFAR
• 21CMMC: an MCMC analysis tool enabling astrophysical parameter studies of the cosmic 21 cm signal
• The THESEUS space mission concept: science case, design and expected performances
• First Results from HERA Phase I: Upper Limits on the Epoch of Reionization 21 cm Power Spectrum
• Improved Constraints on the 21 cm EoR Power Spectrum and the X-Ray Heating of the IGM with HERA Phase I Observations
• Improving the Epoch of Reionization Power Spectrum Results from Murchison Widefield Array Season 1 Observations
• CHIPS: The Cosmological HI Power Spectrum Estimator
• Quantifying the non-Gaussianity in the EoR 21-cm signal through bispectrum
• The Rise of the First Stars: Supersonic Streaming, Radiative Feedback, and 21-cm Cosmology
• Scattering, Damping, and Acoustic Oscillations: Simulating the Structure of Dark Matter Halos with Relativistic Force Carriers
• 21 cm signal from cosmic dawn: Imprints of spin temperature fluctuations and peculiar velocities
• Systematic biases in low frequency radio interferometric data due to calibration: the LOFAR EoR case
• The Global History of Reionisation
• Analysing the 21cm signal from the Epoch of Reionization with artificial neural networks
• On the use of semi-numerical simulations in predicting the 21-cm signal from the epoch of reionization
• The rich complexity of 21-cm fluctuations produced by the first stars
• Understanding the Diversity of 21 cm Cosmology Analyses
• First upper limits on the 21 cm signal power spectrum from cosmic dawn from one night of observations with NenuFAR
• The Large-Scale Observational Signatures of Low-Mass Galaxies During Reionization
• Prediction of the 21-cm signal from reionization: comparison between 3D and 1D radiative transfer schemes
• The impact of spin temperature fluctuations on the 21-cm moments
• Statistics of the epoch of reionization 21-cm signal - I. Power spectrum error-covariance
• Redshifted 21-cm Bispectrum I: Impact of the Redshift Space Distortions on the Signal from the Epoch of Reionization
• The impact of inhomogeneous subgrid clumping on cosmic reionization
• Polarization leakage in epoch of reionization windows: II. Primary beam model and direction dependent calibration
• Redshifted 21-cm bispectrum II: Impact of the spin temperature fluctuations and redshift space distortions on the signal from the Cosmic Dawn
• Fractional Dark Matter decay: cosmological imprints and observational constraints
• Predictions for the 21cm-galaxy cross-power spectrum observable with LOFAR and Subaru
• Effects of the sources of reionization on 21-cm redshift-space distortions
• Gridded and direct Epoch of Reionisation bispectrum estimates using the Murchison Widefield Array
• Detectability of 21cm-signal during the Epoch of Reionization with 21cm-Lyman-$\alpha$ emitter cross-correlation. I
• The impact of non-Gaussianity on the error covariance for observations of the Epoch of Reionization 21-cm power spectrum
• Reionization and dark matter decay
• Models of the Cosmological 21 cm Signal from the Epoch of Reionization Calibrated with Lyman-alpha and CMB Data
• The Effects of Lyman-Limit Systems on the Evolution and Observability of the Epoch of Reionization
• Studying Cosmic Dawn using redshifted HI 21-cm signal: A brief review
• The impact of non-Gaussianity on the Epoch of Reionization parameter forecast using 21-cm power spectrum measurements
• Expected constraints on models of the epoch of reionization with the variance and skewness in redshifted 21cm-line fluctuations
• Simulating the 21cm forest detectable with LOFAR and SKA in the spectra of high-z GRBs
• The Transient High-Energy Sky and Early Universe Surveyor (THESEUS)
• Investigating X-ray sources during the epoch of reionization with the 21 cm signal
• Exploring the cosmic dawn and epoch of reionization with 21cm line
• Probing early universe through redshifted 21-cm signal: Modelling and observational challenges
• The Impact of Realistic Foreground and Instrument Models on 21cm Epoch of Reionization Experiments
• Redshifted 21-cm bispectrum: Impact of the source models on the signal and the IGM physics from the Cosmic Dawn
• Estimation of HII Bubble Size Distribution from 21cm Power Spectrum with Artificial Neural Networks
• Observing the redshifted 21 cm signal around a bright QSO at $z\sim 10$
• Using the sample variance of 21cm maps as a tracer of the ionisation topology
• Impact of the Epoch of Reionization sources on the 21-cm bispectrum
• The Effect of Interplanetary Scintillation on Epoch of Reionisation Power Spectra
• Measurements of one-point statistics in 21 cm intensity maps via foreground avoidance strategy
• Large HI optical depth and Redshifted 21-cm signal from cosmic dawn
• Extracting the Epoch of Reionization Signal with 3D U-Net Neural Networks Using Data-driven Systematic Effect Model
• The Effect of Large Optical Depths on the Non-Gaussian 21-cm signal from Cosmic Dawn
• It's Always Darkest Before the Cosmic Dawn: Early Results from Novel Tools and Telescopes for 21 cm Cosmology