Selection bias in dynamically-measured super-massive black hole samples: consequences for pulsar timing arrays

Abstract

Supermassive black hole -- host galaxy relations are key to the computation of the expected gravitational wave background (GWB) in the pulsar timing array (PTA) frequency band. It has been recently pointed out that standard relations adopted in GWB computations are in fact biased-high. We show that when this selection bias is taken into account, the expected GWB in the PTA band is a factor of about three smaller than previously estimated. Compared to other scaling relations recently published in the literature, the median amplitude of the signal at $f=1$yr${}^{-1}$ drops from $1.3\times 10^{-15}$ to $4\times 10^{-16}$. Although this solves any potential tension between theoretical predictions and recent PTA limits without invoking other dynamical effects (such as stalling, eccentricity or strong coupling with the galactic environment), it also makes the GWB detection more challenging.

6 pages 4 figures, submitted to MNRAS letters

References in corpus (11)

• The hierarchical formation of the brightest cluster galaxies
• The Five-Hundred-Meter Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope (FAST) Project
• The stochastic gravitational-wave background from massive black hole binary systems: implications for observations with Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Upper bounds on the low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background from pulsar timing observations: current limits and future prospects
• Gravitational waves from resolvable massive black hole binary systems and observations with Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Expected properties of the first gravitational wave signal detected with pulsar timing arrays
• A calibration of the relation between the abundance of close galaxy pairs and the rate of galaxy mergers
• Ongoing Assembly of Massive Galaxies by Major Merging in Large Groups and Clusters from the SDSS
• Binary super-massive black hole environments diminish the gravitational-wave signal in the pulsar timing band
• Galaxy Formation as a Cosmological Tool. I: The Galaxy Merger History as a Measure of Cosmological Parameters
• Missing black holes in brightest cluster galaxies as evidence for the occurrence of superkicks in nature

Cited by in corpus (57)

• The NANOGrav 11-year Data Set: Pulsar-timing Constraints On The Stochastic Gravitational-wave Background
• The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Gravitational Wave Background
• Massive Black Hole Binary Mergers in Dynamical Galactic Environments
• The Local Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Landscape From Supermassive Black Hole Binaries
• The Gravitational Wave Background from Massive Black Hole Binaries in Illustris: spectral features and time to detection with pulsar timing arrays
• Astrophysics Milestones For Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational Wave Detection
• Massive black hole merger rates: the effect of kpc separation wandering and supernova feedback
• Interactions between multiple supermassive black holes in galactic nuclei: a solution to the final parsec problem
• A pulsar-based timescale from the International Pulsar Timing Array
• Constraining astrophysical observables of Galaxy and Supermassive Black Hole Binary Mergers using Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Black hole scaling relations of active and quiescent galaxies: Addressing selection effects and constraining virial factors
• Modeling the uncertainties of solar-system ephemerides for robust gravitational-wave searches with pulsar timing arrays
• Post-Newtonian evolution of massive black hole triplets in galactic nuclei -- III. A robust lower limit to the nHz stochastic background of gravitational waves
• Testing the binary hypothesis: pulsar timing constraints on supermassive black hole binary candidates
• Massive black hole evolution models confronting the n-Hz amplitude of the stochastic gravitational wave background
• From galactic nuclei to the halo outskirts: tracing supermassive black holes across cosmic history and environments
• Constraints On The Dynamical Environments Of Supermassive Black-hole Binaries Using Pulsar-timing Arrays
• The NANOGrav 12.5-year data set: Search for Non-Einsteinian Polarization Modes in theGravitational-Wave Background
• Discovery of a close-separation binary quasar at the heart of a z~0.2 merging galaxy and its implications for low-frequency gravitational waves
• Gravitational wave research using pulsar timing arrays
• Dynamical evolution of cosmic supermassive binary black holes and their gravitational wave radiation
• The nightmare scenario: measuring the stochastic gravitational-wave background from stalling massive black-hole binaries with pulsar-timing arrays
• The effect of differential accretion on the Gravitational Wave Background and the present day MBH Binary population
• Pulsar timing residual induced by ultralight vector dark matter
• Pulsar Timing and its Application for Navigation and Gravitational Wave Detection
• Pulsars probe the low-frequency gravitational sky: Pulsar Timing Arrays basics and recent results
• Defining the (Black Hole)-Spheroid Connection with the Discovery of Morphology-Dependent Substructure in the $M_{\mathrm{BH}}$--${\mathrm{n}}_{\mathrm{sph}}$ and $M_{\mathrm{BH}}$--${\mathrm{R}}_{\mathrm{e},\mathrm{sph}}$ Diagrams: New Tests for Advanced Theories and Realistic Simulations
• Selection bias in dynamically-measured supermassive black hole samples: Scaling relations and correlations between residuals in semi-analytic galaxy formation models
• No tension between assembly models of supermassive black hole binaries and pulsar observations
• The minimum and maximum gravitational-wave background from supermassive binary black holes
• Sensitivity of present and future detectors across the black-hole binary gravitational wave spectrum
• Associating Host Galaxy Candidates to Massive Black Hole Binaries resolved by Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Probing supermassive black hole mergers and stalling with pulsar timing arrays
• Evolution Of Massive Black Hole Binaries In Rotating Stellar Nuclei: Implications For Gravitational Wave Detection
• Constraints on anisotropic properties of the universe in $f(Q,T)$ gravity theory
• Implications of cosmologically coupled black holes for pulsar timing arrays
• Exploring Proxies for the Supermassive Black Hole Mass Function: Implications for Pulsar Timing Arrays
• Direct n-body simulations of tidal disruption rate evolution in unequal-mass galaxy mergers
• The Black Hole Mass Function Across Cosmic Times II. Heavy Seeds and (Super)Massive Black Holes
• Supermassive Black Hole Binary Environments: Effects on the Scaling Laws and Time to Detection for the Stochastic Background
• Cosmological Tests of $f(R,G,T)$ Dark Energy Model in FRW Universe
• Radio pulsars: testing gravity and detecting gravitational waves
• Review of Pulsar Timing Array for Gravitational Wave Research
• Quashing a suspected selection bias in galaxy samples having dynamically-measured supermassive black holes
• Bulk viscous cosmological model in $f(T,\mathcal{T})$ modified gravity
• Resolving the nano-Hz gravitational wave sky: the detectability of eccentric binaries with PTA experiments
• Cosmological constraints on $f(Q)$ gravity models in the non-coincident formalism
• Co-evolution of supermassive black holes with galaxies from semi-analytic model: stochastic gravitational wave background and black hole clustering
• Reading signatures of supermassive binary black holes in pulsar timing array observations
• Extended Bose-Einstein condensate dark matter in $f(Q)$ gravity
• Prospects for Time-Domain and Multi-Messenger Science with eXTP
• Probing $z\gtrsim 6$ massive black holes with gravitational waves
• Gravitational Waves, Extreme Astrophysics, and Fundamental Physics with Precision Pulsar Timing
• Massive Black Hole Mergers
• Exploring the multiband gravitational wave background with a semi-analytic galaxy formation model
• Constraining black hole-galaxy scaling relations from the large-scale clustering of Active Galactic Nuclei and implied mean radiative efficiency
• Anisotropy of Nanohertz Gravitational Wave Background and Source Clustering from Supermassive Binary Black Holes Based on Cosmological Simulation